MattTarrant

There are meant to be several areas of initiation linked with the varying features of the setup.

Does look quite shallow to me, though if the CAP breaks a storm could develop in as little as 20 mins so its knife edge stuff.

Got to 30.1 so far according to my Netatmo Weather Station

There is recording station at Filton which is around there, however, may be more in the 33/34 region

Still 25 degrees... I feel a bad night sleep coming

Just done a quick analysis on the both the peak and scope of warmth by the following 4 models; NAVGEM, GEM, ARPEGE & GFS. NAVGEM: This is the most widespread in terms of heat and peak of temperatures. It is suggesting the possibility of 32 being reached for both Sunday, Monday & Tuesday. Highest Temps slowly transferring west by Tuesday. ARPEGE: Showing the possibility of 30 being reached around the London Area on Sunday (Usual Places like: Heathrow, Northolt & Kew Gardens). It will be widely 25 - 28 on both Sunday & Monday for southern areas (Including areas of the South West, Midlands & Wales). GEM: Likelihood of 29 being reached, once again around the London area. Monday being the warmest day. GFS: 28 being the warmest on Monday around the Southampton area, widely 24 -26 from the North Midlands South. Personal Prediction: ARPEGE most likely, as it ties in with BBC (Met Office) predictions, NAVGEM most likely overcooking temps (But not out the question), GFS underplaying temperatures a little, especially in peak terms. ECM would also likely produce around the 30 degree mark.

As Nick F mentioned in his excellent blog, the GFS 6z run was showing signs of following the ECM. In short its not quite as keen on the retrogression of the high, however, given ECM and some lukewarm support from the Met Office I am somewhat wary of the GFS.

A little bit of Alto Cas drifting by

I think we missed it.... Like what?!?

To be fair, for the South West Quadrant it looks like storms may erupt in the small hours (ie 3/4 in the morning) perhaps lasting to around 7/8 in the morning. Destabilisation of the trough is also not nailed down with capping being an issue. For late Sunday/Sunday evening thundery action looks more likely the further east you travel.

Saturday afternoon has a wider potential in terms of convective action. The instability runs NNE/NE during the day and may combine with respectable levels of CAPE (1500 +) to produce some impressive potential. The issue is as ever the cloud amounts, thus the level of diurnal heating achieved. A safe bet would be to say Midlands north. The attached image shows the CAPE values, East Anglia may have the highest values but as always depends on whether capping is broken. Using Sounding's closer to the time will help.

I think it has much to do with the interaction with the strong jet stream overhead. The extent of upper air divergence and thus low level divergence is making the area of very heavy precipitation difficult to forecast. 'Wavey' fronts are notoriously hard to forecast, especially when there is such humid & moisture laden air involved!

I would think 1st June, the only one I can find is the 2012 one which was published on that date.

Perhaps, yet the cell that went overhead here developed on the Leeward side of Dartmoor.

Had Massive Drops from the shower passing over Tiverton, Devon from a rapidly developing shower! Interesting though as there has been little if any sunshine here at all.

13 is for London, majority of places will around 8/9

Next week the GFS is showing for Wednesday that temperatures will max at about 6/7 widely (Perhaps scraping 10 in the South East). With a steady northerly breeze it will be feel relatively cold.

It was not frosty, yet this statement needs some backing!!

So much so that it is Met Office's belief (through BBC week ahead forecast) that high pressure will be dominant next week with low pressure's riding over the top of the high pressure. So in essence continuing to be settled in the south and changeable in the north.

Is that not the exception rather than the rule?

Yes very much so, high pressure is always influencing southern portions of the UK at least. As to people saying GFS is woefully underplaying temps is not really correct. I think in a generalist prospective I think temperatures will be widely 18/19 with the south east more like 19/20. BBC only has London reaching 20 so its not 'woeful'! The ECM is similar in style to GFS but instead deepens a low to the south of Iceland by early Wednesday, the differential between the high pressure cell and the Scandinavian trough is much more defined leading to a greater gradient and thus a stronger NW flow, yet the ECM then brings the high in more centrally so who knows?

I'm afraid i'm at work....I hope they have it on live though!!! COYS!

No offence to you, but the GFS has seemed reluctant on bringing more widespread gales across the country. The Hi - Res Models like Arome & Arpege have been set on bringing widespread 50 - 60mph with occasional above and the stronger phase of widely 70mph maybe 80mph. This ties with the Met Office.

Interesting to see what has caused the GFS to not follow the last couple of runs, it looks like the ridging is just flattened to quickly in my eyes. Maybe though it was responding to the MJO phase 8 - 1 to quickly but interesting to see. Whatever the reasons behind it not following the last few runs, it is safe to say it not a run for the coldies of this forum. Though not exactly warm either, maybe a decent diurnal range.

Hello sir, hello sir once again! Could be a trend to keep an eye on. 324h on 6z... ...