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MattTarrant

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Everything posted by MattTarrant

  1. MattTarrant
    I must being seeing different charts? It warms up because the winds are not easterly, they veer around to almost southerly!
  2. MattTarrant
    I don't intend on cluttering this thread (Sorry John), but none of the models have been predicting the notably below average temperatures to stay for more than around 4/5 days. Despite the ECM being the road we would preferably want to go down, it does still bring *slightly* LESS COLD conditions as the wind has more of a South Easterly component around mid week (Next week) before the blocking re - orientates itself and PERHAPS gives us chances further down the line.
  3. MattTarrant
    Temp dropped from 6 to 4 in under an hour without precipitation here so it changes very quickly
  4. MattTarrant
    What are the temperatures guys? And did they drop quickly at one point.
  5. MattTarrant
    There is actually only minor difference's, granted on local basis it makes a big difference. Also the UKMO only has the feature just approaching my 144hrs so that judgement is a little premature.
  6. MattTarrant
    Essentially that is what is forecast, probably like another 4 - 5 hours of decreasing intensity (Probably add about 2- 3 cm). Especially where snow has already settled.
  7. MattTarrant
    Literally in like 30 seconds its gone from pure rain to very wet snow.
  8. MattTarrant
    I think any snow for you/southern coastal areas will be when the front begins to push back south later in the afternoon. I can see most seeing some wet snow in the late afternoon/evening with temperatures around 1 - 3. Intensity of precipitation will be decisive.
  9. MattTarrant
    62% phone charge Steve.... In all seriousness, the West Coast would look very wintry if it came off as this.
  10. MattTarrant
    Interesting stuff. From some quick research, it seems that the ECM & GEFS use different manners for creating the perturbations. The GEFS uses something called 'Bred Vector' ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bred_vector).
  11. MattTarrant
    This is a question for anyone. The alteration of initial data, do the first perturbations have closer initial conditions than say number 20 to the raw operational data? Or does it work in different manner?
  12. MattTarrant
    Yeah absolutely
  13. MattTarrant
    It wasn't the control which showed this snow event. It was the 1st member.
  14. MattTarrant
    The Jet Stream profile is notably different on this run. The 6z run has more energy going into the southern arm, the 12z has more going into northern arm combining with a higher latitude based northern arm jet. The net result is the low pressure traversing a more northerly route in contrast to that of the 6z.
  15. MattTarrant
    This thread has been somewhat hostile at the moment. This is a 'model output' thread, not a thread to display your weather wishes. I think people really need to consider whether what there posting is of any use (Ie contains some scientific knowledge to it, or more importantly some more open minded analysis).
  16. MattTarrant
    I agree with the begins of your statement, the length of source is too high for there to be sufficient cold for there to be snow down to low levels. Unless there is a perfect combination of undercutting cold air and adiabatic cooling (Unlikely). With regards to the latter of your points, the front actually clears sufficiently to allow respectable uppers for a North West flow (Though still not enough for snow anyway from areas with reasonable height).
  17. MattTarrant
    This run doesn't develop the wave feature as much so no sign of any leading edge snow (If any limited to the highest ground in Wales). Sure not to be settled on however for at least another 24hrs.
  18. MattTarrant
    https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/discussion.asp?DiscussionID=971&DiscussionTitle=Model+Blind+Spots Read this from Metcheck which gives a good insight to the input of data.
  19. MattTarrant
    As Knocker has recently mentioned frequently in the last day or so, the GFS has constantly been causing cyclogenesis in the later period of its runs. Caution required obviously all round, one positive is the higher resistance to the energy (Low Pressure) upstream which Nick mentioned would be critical to the process the ECM was trying earlier.
  20. MattTarrant
    No, but the pub run rarely fails to bring a surprise (Normally disappointing).
  21. MattTarrant
    Just to input a sense of humor and pretend this run will verify....
  22. MattTarrant
    Just to calm you down a bit, the models are not predicting 70/80 mph gusts in Swansea. Unless you live up on Mumbles Head then gusts will probably stay down at 60/65 max. Obviously any slight east deviation to the track would bring the risk of higher gusts of >70mph.
  23. MattTarrant
    Please stop. This forum is predominantly good with discussion, there will always disagreement but your taking it to a new level. Your essentially saying those whom do research in these fields (Likely have PhD's) are completely wrong and in denial?
  24. MattTarrant
    Interesting thoughts indeed. What Phil mentioned yesterday (Strictly relevant to Northerlies) was excellent. It will be interesting to see the extent of Ice Sheets this winter and the possible role it could play.
  25. MattTarrant
    What do you mean by 'Landscape has changed'? Please elaborate.
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