MattTarrant

Major cold developing over the continent on the control run, not for a while have I seen uppers that low (-24) close to the UK!

Literally the tiniest flakes isn't it!

Some of the high res models do intensify it a bit as it approaches the west coast, though I just have a nagging feeling I will wake up early to see a very fragmented front. Here's hoping for some luck for once!!

Unfortunately, being that far west that was meant to be the case.

No cause for concern, I imagine a quick trop response is a rare occurence anyway. Given cross model support for the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (Ie GFS, ECM, CFS & Glosea) I think it almost irrelevant whether the effects of the downwelling of the 10hPa warming is instant. Even if the lag time is notable, high latitude blocking will still be evident as early as mid to late February. Also ignore anyone who spouts crap about sun strength!

Its expensive, more of a high end budget product. Doubtful you will find it under £100 (Which is basic model). It is very good though, does have good number of parameters it measures. You can also view the temperatures that other models are reading across the country which is very helpful in marginal snow situations for example.

Its not only the Euro4 that keeps the intensification up a little more, there is a trend within a few of the other high resolution models (HIRLAM & WRF NMM 0.05). Must stress however, that even with these 'improvements' no major accumulations are expected. Pembrokeshire may suffer from the precipitation turning to sleet and even rain on the back edge due to somewhat marginal dew points & 850pha temperature combined with light precipitation. Southern coasts may also suffer from the precipitation turning more sleety but shouldn't be too much of an issue. Overall prediction is for 0.5 - 3cm widely with more slushy accumulation along the pembrokeshire coastline.

Can we stop arguing about the amount of snow, its getting a little annoying.

I suggest following Ian Ferguson. He focuses more on the West country but does represent well what the Met Office are thinking.

I think he means 'High Res'

Potentially, just slightly disappointed in changes in general. The more I use the graphics the more I like them, just wish they were at the same scale as before.

How are they going to integrate the video forecast into the new site though? Its already quite cluttered.

My honest opinion of the changes; Forecast Viewing (Symbols & Wind etc): There is a nice fluidity to the viewing approach, the transmission from day to day is clean & crisp. I am however, not a fan of not having all hours view-able at once. It is a pain moving the bar left & right, more so for the hourly slots than the days. The symbols are also too in your face & large (probably why there is a move-able bar). The addition of precipitation chance is welcomed, but unnecessary to give such exact numbers (prefer Met Office's more basic approach to this). Though I do not hate this new setup, it is step back from what it was. The purpose must be to be able to view the forecast in as little hassle as possible, more complicated detail should be left to the host of the data. 14 Day Forecast: Not only is this just a bad idea, having hourly forecasts all the way out is just completely unnecessary. So a BIG FAT NO FOR THIS ADDITION!!!! Graphic Viewing: New map style and precipitation detail is tremendous (Akin to what Met office use in there video forecasts). The complexity of viewing certain parameters is just a hassle, just provide a clickable link like before to change viewing from local to UK! Also a nice addition would be surface syn-optics viewed through a clickable link. Video Forecasts: WHATS HAPPENED?!? (Only explanation perhaps could be that they are waiting until new graphics are shown on TV). Overall conclusion: A lot of unecessary changes.

We just had snow in Swansea, just saying haha. Temporary dusting, but its horrid out there with strong winds and frequent sleet on and off.

Showers are naturally unpredictable. Wales not suitably positioned upon North Westerly (WNW Component Today). Showers often decay on progress over Ireland. Notable trough feature would be very helpful. Upper Air temps still to fall until around midnight, slight increase after in tandem with T2 Temperatures. HAVE SOME PATIENCE GUYS!!! THE BEST WILL LIKELY BE 8 - 11 PM

Simply the 'relatively' low resolution of the GFS.

Perhaps we can all start a community funded weather station pot, with the money coming from Karlos making weather related bets .

Check this out, blend of almost all numerical weather models. https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/arcus_charts.asp

Scroll down the page & where it says recent blogs you can access it . First time for such error message!

Accidents can be good...

Just going to do a quick analysis/overview of the likelihood of snowfall next week, using a series of parameters. This will focus on; 500mb Heights, 850hpa Temperatures, Dew Point & Dam Air Thickness. Credit for base knowledge goes to; https://ukweather.wordpress.com/weather-guides/basic-snow-forecasting-guide/ All charts are from the GFS at 108hrs. 500mb Heights: A general rule of thumb is for this to be at or below -27 Degrees Celsius. That is a tick for essentially all of UK mainland (Approaching -40 in parts). 850pha Temperatures: For snow to sea level -7 uppers are generally required. -5 uppers widely across UK mainland (-6 & 7 further north). Sea level snow marginal with highest chances in Scotland & Northern Ireland. Dew Point: 0c generally needed for snow to settle, marginally above requires substantially heavy falls. Tick! Dam Air Thickness: Generally below the 528 value. Tick for majority of UK mainland. Overall Conclusion: Overall parameters look on the favorable side, with uppers being the most marginal (fine for inland snowfall). A key word of caution though is significant moderation of the boundary layer, due to the large westerly component and resulting larger fetch. This is the cause behind the rather uninspiring 2m Temperatures, hence why snow would seem favorable overnight in contrast to daytime, especially further south. The requirement for heavy precipitation should be stressed, allowing for marked temperature swings during shower cycles. Temporary settling is possible almost anywhere, especially north of the M4 . Though noteworthy is likely restricted to the North West, Northern Ireland & Scotland (Hence warning out from the Met Office for Northern Ireland & Scotland).

Still too much uncertainty in the exact dominant wind component, this has repercussions on the moderation at the boundary level. Though with the very cold 500mb heights, the more convective showers (Increased updrafts & downdrafts) could see wet snow mixed in almost anywhere. For reading the charts in regard to snow chances cite back to Nick F's detailed post a few pages back.

Generally from those who are less learned in the topic though.

Below I will attach a selection of links that will hopefully give those keen to learn the science, and how to read the charts of such teleconnections; GWO (Global Wind Oscillation), GAM (Global Angular Momentum), MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), Mountain Torque etc. Link to GWO & GAM thread here on netweather where some great discussion that has taken place and does provide useful information to those learning (Like Me): Link to the Khan Academy, where Angular Momentum is described in simple terms: https://www.khanacademy.org/science/physics/torque-angular-momentum/torque-tutorial/v/angular-momentum This link is for an old piece of research on GAM (1971), so obviously do further research leading on from this with newer papers: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1329%3AGAMBET>2.0.CO%3B2 Below provides access to the GWO that the likes of Catocal/Glacier Point & Tamara use: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html Madden Julian Oscillation: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care Lastly a massive thanks to the likes of Catacol/Glacier Point/Tamara whom discuss the above for the rest of the forum's benefit!!

I don't agree, the Isolines seems more from SE then SSE direction by 156 hr. Whatever the case its got it 'warming' up. I will side with the UKMO/GEM on this one (I mean no disrespect to you over this ).