The PIT

Reaction due Swansea failing to beat the massive err Sheffield Wednesday.

Cold still staying out of reach and shown to arrive by next Saturday by the GFS after Tuesday a steady cooling back down. Then the GFS shows a blink and you missed it cold snap. Anyway the way the models have dropped this doesn't install with much confidence of how cold it will get how long or even if the high pressure ends up in the right place. The ECm may show the cold arriving earlier. UKMO doesn't deliver much in the way of cold uppers just -4C so won't be particular cold. So all wait for the ECM.

Models still in a bit of flutter. Today and the next couple days the first above average days of the month. Anyway Sunny Sheffield up to 2.4C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall no change.

Light rain and drizzle dying away soon after lunchtime then sunny spells giving us the first above average day of the month Max temp 7.8C now 6.7C, Barometer 1023mb steady, Wind F2 WSW, rainfall 0.8mm

Some light rain and drizzle arriving just before eight this briefly falling as sleet in the peak district. Temperatures struggling to rise due to the coloud Temp 4.6C, Barometer 1023mb steady, Wind SW, Rainfall 0.8mm

ECM drifting away from the idea failing to produce the cold run shown yesterday. UKMO now beginning to agree and may follow ECM in it's evolution. GFS now drifting to the idea but doesn't really deliver any real cold uppers until late in the run. So overall turning colder but nothing of note with these runs. They may still be fishing for the correct outcome or finally tapped into something more realistic.

Dry mild start to the day. Cloudy. Temp 3.2C low 2.8C, Barometer 1022mb falling, Wind F3 SSW, Rainfall nil

Funny if ECM became the most progressive from this. UKMP playing with the idea which is more inline with the GFS

UKMO not fully onboard GFS playing with the idea ECM fully in. Again still a waiting game .

Sunny Sheffield still at 2.3C -2.1C below normal Rainfall at 28.5mm 47.4% of average. GFS now showing a colder outlook while ECM goes much further UKMO unceratin.

Dry sunny spells early ground frost Max temp 6.3C now 5.4C low 0.3C, Barometer 1025mb falling, Wind F2 SSW, Rainfall nil

Dry frosty start with a ground frost Temp 0.8C, Barometer 1023mb rising, Wind F3 SSW, Rainfall nil

Well the enxt test is gfs evening run still labeled pub run but no longer really comes out with crazy ideas of old. I think the real biggy is tomorrow mornings ECM. If it drops it we're are back to square one.

Ho hum as I send the fat lady out to get some throat pastels the ECM drops a bomb at T120. Tomorrow mornings run it's going to be the important one to see if it keeps it or drops it.

And as we post the ECM has done what I said dropped a bomb at T120 will have to wait until the tomorrows morning run too see if it repeats it or drops it.

No change in the temp in Sunny Sheffield still 2.3C any drops in the min off set by warmer days. Rainfall 28.5mm 47.4% of average. Very mild weather next week so a rapid rise in average values. At present it's looking more like an above average month is likely.

I think you got caught up in the hype. Happens every year egged on by people who should know better presenting charts around the very end of the GFS as the ones that will verify. If they did then model verification would go out at lot further than five to six days. There is a very good reason why they don't because the scores would fall through the floor. Even though models have improved ukmo most of all I tend to stick as T96 as the time point where you can say it will happen if the jet is week maybe T120 and a stretch T144. Then from there to T240 trends and after that well really lala land. Another good tip is when a setup is shown if never moves forward over a series of runs it is very unlikely to happen at all. You can look at the assemblies but I recall looking at the gfs panels all showed a major storm bar one and the one was right. The op run did show the storm btw then ditched it next run. The question I've got why hasn't the stronger blocking happened. I read another wave is coming that should hit the vortex so perhaps we will get a cold march. I expect another bout of hysteria in the model thread if that occurs. Fingers crossed the models suddenly drop a cold bombshell at T144 and move it forward it's happened before.

A day of long sunny spells and only a few spots of rain at the end of the afternoon Max temp 6.6C, now 4.4C, Barometer 1014mb rising, Wind F2 WSW, Rainfall 0.6mm

Ahh so you're picking and choosing. Sadly the op runs one from the suites have been singing mostly from same song sheet for days. ECM as well.You can pick and choose all winter. At the moment from the op runs within the reliable time frame there isn't one run from the big three showing deep cold and hasn't been all week. The reliable time frame isn't T300 plus either.

Woke up this morning hoping the fat lady had left but she burst out of the cupboard. After a brief wrestling match I won two falls to one and viewed the gfs. What did I see more spring like temps and a token easterly way out in deep fi once more. ECM will that deliver probably not but who knows.

mild cloudy damp looking start Temp 5C, low 4.7C, Barometer 1002mb rising, Wind F3 WSW, Rainfall since midnight 0.6mm

Yup mild 2c to 3c above normal. Some beast.

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 28 Feb 2018: Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. This part looks major fail already. 19th to 24th are looking very mild. Hopefully will change by Saturday.

No change temp wise Sunny Sheffield, Rainfall up to 25.2mm 41.9% of average. Double figure temperatures and mild from Sunday should see a rapid rise in temperatures. My thoughts shifting more to an average to above average month. No sign of the SSW having any effect so wondering whether it's just plain too late in season to do so.

Well I keep trying to push the fat lady into the closet but she keeps coming out with songs from GFS and ECM with odes to spring and requiem for winter. Too be honest deep FI has been producing easterlies off and on all winter and will probably keep showing them most of spring. In summer it will phantom Spanish plumes. Anyway yet another in long line of rubbish gfs so can ECM deliver?