Well I keep trying to push the fat lady into the closet but she keeps coming out with songs from GFS and ECM with odes to spring and requiem for winter. Too be honest deep FI has been producing easterlies off and on all winter and will probably keep showing them most of spring. In summer it will phantom Spanish plumes.
Anyway yet another in long line of rubbish gfs so can ECM deliver?
Well today was never on. Yesterday was on but needed heavy rain which we never got. Bit concerned about the beebs forecast possibly more inaccurate due to the change in source. Looking like SSW is going to be a flop with spring in the reliable time with no clear pattern shown afterwards.
Pretty naff GFS although it does bring an early taste of spring. As ever any cold remains unmoved way out in lala land. Sadly the high sits around in the wrong place and there's no guarantee it will sit in the right place. So don't get too carried away folks. Hopefully the ECM will deliver something better.
Looking like it will bring spring like conditions at first before a brief cold snap at the end of the month.
Main problem today was that the rain was too light so no evapourative cooling available. I did wonder when I saw a gap in the front heading this way. This only filled in with light rain so luck wasn't on our side. So yes a fail and still not a day with full snow cover.
Light rain during the morning and first part of the afternoon. Now dry with clear skies and temperatures dropping
Max temp 3.7C now 1.8C, Barometer 1005mb rising, Wind F2 NNW, Rainfall 3.4mm
Sunny Sheffield at 2.3C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall 22mm 36.8% of average. Latest runs suggest a spring like spell later next week as the SSW event places the high in the wrong place. Odds slipping towards another average month possibly above.
Going to be tricky and we could do with the warm sector mixing out more quickly. GFS has the air temps a little bit too high. High areas in the peak district should see Snow from the off. Now whether this gets down to lower levels will depend on how much precipitation there is. Heavy enough and it should cool the atmosphere allowing the snow to reach ever lower levels. Cold air also digs in some the chances of more widespread increases as time as the day goes on. However if the rain is light Snow is likely to be confined to the highest ground.
Well the snow lasted a while here but once again failed to last the day.
Dry with some sunny spells during the afternoon breezy through out sometimes reaching F5. Once again failed to get snow cover to the last day just a few bits left in the garden.
Max temp 4.3C now 3.3C, Barometer 1012mb falling, Wind F4 WSW, rainfall trace
Dry cold after earlier flurries died away one or two sunny spells but high cloud now blocking out the sun. Slow thaw in progress.
Temp 2.7C, Barometer 1013mb falling, Wind F5, WSW, Rainfall trace
Tomorrow looks interesting. Even if it does start as rain the chances of it turning to snow are pretty good. The 850's are a big marginal at the beginning but soon get ideal as cold air digs. So the only other factor is how rain does it produce. At the moment I'm expecting it to start off as rain low down but Snow on high ground this getting down to lower levels as cold air digs and atmospheric cooling by the rain takes place. Could the first real snow event of the winter.
Sunny Sheffield up 2.4C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 21.8mm 36.3% of normal. Slow rise should continue this week. GFS showing a very mild spring like end however this deep la la land and can only be taken with a pinch of salt. If it comes off average to above average is on the cards. The pattern this winter so far a cold spell being offset by a milder short spell and could well be repeated.
Mostly dry in the afternoon til later on when snow showers returned giving a covering to end the day
Max temp 3.8C now 1C low 0.9C, Barometer 1006mb rising, Wind F4 WNW, Rainfall 4.6mm
Showers turning back to rain and sleet away from the moors as the temps rise a little bit.Not really surprising. Tuesday morning looks interesting may get a surprise from that. After Wednesday it looks like warming up a little so little away from the highest ground in the peaks.