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Fiona Robertson

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Everything posted by Fiona Robertson

  1. Fiona Robertson
    You all get so technical in here and while I do appreciate all of the info and even understand some of it, I thought I'd just post some eye candy. Earthnull school set to temp at 10 hPa with wee green circle bang on N (-61.8C). I have no point to make really, just enjoying the pretty piccies.
  2. Fiona Robertson
    Strongest winds seemto be reaching Danish coast around now.
  3. Fiona Robertson
    11 hrs ago the BBC ran a story on their N. Ireland page, said Pia was moving in from the Atlantic. I don't live in N Ireland, neither do the peeps in Scotland, England or Wales. The blurb with the story was confusing. For example it says; "Named by the Danish met office, Pia is forecast to bring the strongest winds towards the north coast." Would that be the north coast of Denmark or the north coast of N.Ireland? I usually find it easy navigating my way through weather warnings, but this time it's been a nightmare. The Met Office warning page gets stuck, I can't navigate back from it, the warnings themselves, and even the map, don't appear until the third click or refresh, the text which pops up when you hover over the matrix is confusing, seems it only refers to where the check mark is, rather than the square you're hovering over.
  4. Fiona Robertson
    Something wrong with the warning matrix.This is what I get when I hover over the red warning. Every single column is "low impact".
  5. Fiona Robertson
    Nope! Just nope... nope nope nope...nope! The one-wheeled landing... nope, the sudden nose down on approach... nope.
  6. Fiona Robertson
    BBC began a "Live" coverage of Pia on their web site. It began at 9.13 this morning. Travel is being advised against, not because of any Met Office warning but because of the impacts which have already happened. Pia is sitting just of the west coast of Norway,funneling NW winds down the North Sea. Complicating this is a system in the Atlantic with winds adding to the Pia winds.
  7. Fiona Robertson
    I hate to ask, but at some point can mods deal with the name-calling?
  8. Fiona Robertson
    I only cottoned on to this last night around midnight when I heard the wind howling. I'd been keeping an eye on things via earth nullschool so I expected a windy spell. I see this morning that the BBC has finally mentioned it, but only to let us know that it's already causing disruption. Um... we know that part, we can see it and their report 34 minutes ago, around 8 am was no use to me when I was out at 3am this morning securing various things down. It's not even a nowcast, it's a postcast. Not everyone is a weather nerd.
  9. Fiona Robertson
    Met Eireann named Elin and Fergus due to the expected impacts on the Irish Republic. Are you suggesting Met Eireann should only be allowed to name storms if they affect Leicester?
  10. Fiona Robertson
    Think of what would have happened if things had gone the other way. Also, you're currently 2 hrs into an 11hr warning. There's always uncertainty about the weather forecasting. It's an attempt to predict the future based on mathematical models. Now, how local authrities make decisions based on these predictions is a completely different can of worms.
  11. Fiona Robertson
    How? They advised what the weather might do and left the decisions up to you.
  12. Fiona Robertson
    09:29 Wed am, according to the Met Office weather warnings page. Runs from 06:00 to17:00 Thursday.
  13. Fiona Robertson
    Here's the warning matrix for winds in Southampton. Southampton was on the western edge of the amber area.
  14. Fiona Robertson
    Centre seems to be just inland and heading in the general direction of London.
  15. Fiona Robertson
    I'm glad the impact in your area has been less than you may have expected, however the warning system is based on a combination of severity of impact and liklihood of said impact. It doesn't mean you will get the severe impacts, it's a probabilities game, it means there's a chance you might get severe weather. When you go out in your car you don't get into a crash every time. Do you then complain that your seatbelt was a waste of time? The warning system gives peeps a heads-up of what may be coming their way. It gives them a chance to make any preparations they deem necessary. It's also important to bear in mind that forecasting the track of this storm has been difficult because of how late and close to the UK it finally exited the jet stream and the track would ultimately decide how severe and widespread the effects of the worst winds would be. On top of that, you appear to be close to the centre of it where the winds are less fierce. I'm in Scotland, I have nothing, but I don't begrudge a warning for those being impacted by Ciaran. It's weather. Conditions vary from place to place. The Met Office cannot base its warning system for the entire UK based on what the conditions will be over bevo's house east of Southampton.
  16. Fiona Robertson
    Water vapour image. SSEC: Global, Water Vapor (hourly)
  17. Fiona Robertson
    From an hour ago, don't know when image was grabbed.
  18. Fiona Robertson
    Been looking further north than models had forecast since this afternoon,but it was hard to tell if it would manage to get a wee bit further SE before it popped out of the jet stream. Also got a sting jetish feel. I really don't like the look of this one. Image is SSEC: Global, Water Vapor, Black & White (hourly)
  19. Fiona Robertson
    Green circle is current position of Ciaran,wind map is at 250 hPa. Second image is Sfc windmap, green circle in same position as previous image.
  20. Fiona Robertson
    You fill me with cheer and I don't doubt you, however the last time I was so certain about something, I was wrong.My internal convo went something like this. "Nah, there's no way there's an abscess in that hoof" 10 minutes laterand pus dripping off my hands... "Oh look, there was an abscess in that hoof..." Apparently I know as little about horses as I do about meteorology...and I have two... horses, not meteorologies.
  21. Fiona Robertson
    Last night I made a wild prediction of where Ciaran would exit the jet stream. I based that on the location of the kink in the jet stream, seen on the nullschool wind map. Today that kink appears to be much further north. The first image is today's 250 hPa image,second is from 3.30 am this morning. The green circle is my predicted jet exit. Notice that it's no longer in said kink. The kink has moved.
  22. Fiona Robertson
    Since someone brought up sting jet and since the only things I know about them is you need a lane of dry, cold air within the circulation, I wandered off to grab a water vapour image (SSEC: Global, Water Vapor, Black & White (hourly) ) and a visible image (SSEC: Global, Visible (15min)). Having done this,I looked at them and came up with "dunno".
  23. Fiona Robertson
    I asked some questions about this in a post on the models thread. No answers, so I'm assuming we'recurrently within the territory of "Dunno".
  24. Fiona Robertson
    Daft idea, gonna have a wee guess as to where Ciaran will exit the jet stream and begin rapid cyclogenesis. I'm going for 46.78 N, 8.47 W. I'm basing this on using the nullschool windmap, looking at developing Ciaran at Sfc and the jet stream at 250 and 500 hPa. It is also based on my bottomless pit of ignorance and total lack of understanding of meteorology. I stake my claim in the first image where the wee green circle is. Second image is sfc with the wee green circle where soon-to-be-Ciaran is supposedly located.
  25. Fiona Robertson
    WEATHER NERDS ASSEMBLE! I've been wandering through history looking at the Great Storm of 1987, in particular the low pressure set-up prior to the arrival of the nasty beastie from the Bay of Biscay. What triggered this meander of mine is the modelled track for Ciaran. It seems that Ciaran makes landfall around or just east of Plymouth and exits at the Humber estuary. That track rang bells so off I went on a hunt and found this wonderful wee source. Great Storm of 87 WWW.EUROPEANWINDSTORMS.ORG It seems that the landfall and exit of the Great Storm is almost identical, see GFS model animation posted by @IDO Anyway, this got me thinking (always a dangerous thing). IIRC,the Great Storm was when some bright spark picked upon the existence that dratted thing called a sting jet, a thing which has been the bane of my life understanding-wise. Somewhere in this topic, many pages and moons ago, someone mentioned the possibility of a sting jet with Ciaran. This made me wonder where the dry air in the Great Storm came from. Did it motor up from Biscay already embedded or was it absorbed in from one of the three lows hanging around that had colder (and thus presumably drier) air within them? I recently heard that lows attract each other, a bit like magnets (thanks Ryan Hall Y'all) so did these three lows steer the Great Storm and if they did which low did what steering? Are the three lows currently being modelled going to steer Ciaran? Was there a north Scandi high affecting the great Storm? Will the modelled north Scandi high affect Ciaran? Are there significant differences between the two or are they eerily similar? I'm not able to answer these questions because I'm merely a terminally enthusiatic amateur with total numpty qualities. I'd be most grateful if a kind person could try to answer these questions. You will be pleased to know that I finally grasp sting jets (I think, for now), so you won't have to explain that to me again.
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