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Fiona Robertson

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Everything posted by Fiona Robertson

  1. Fiona Robertson
    Every year I ask someone to explain sting jets to me and every year some very kind souls do just that and give me links. I read it all and I think "Yeah... I get it now" and every year I subsequently see a post and realise "Nope, don't got it!" and ask again. I have a blind spot when it comes to grasping this. Currently, after spending the early part of winter reading up on them I've managed to get to the point of "sting jet BAD!"
  2. Fiona Robertson
    Would you like to tell the Met Office or shall I? When "mainland UK" stops north of York, I'd suggest that the definition of mainland UK is a tad "off".
  3. Fiona Robertson
    So I'm awake at stupid o'clock and the first gust of wind that I heard was at 02:50 which is a tad earlier than I was expecting. It seemed to come out of nowhere and was pretty loud. Let's see how this develops.
  4. Fiona Robertson
    This is the one that last week the models were predicting gusts in excess of 200 kph (124 mph, go me! I can use an online converter ). Looks like they've dialed that back to 90 mph in exposed and coastal areas so that's good, in a relative sense. Anyone willing to cheer me up with a prediction that wind speeds will be further downgraded before it hits? Good job farrier is booked for tomorrow morning.
  5. Fiona Robertson
    Thank you very much for your answer. So am I right in thinking it may be a combination of the low not deepening as much and a shift to the north that will mean I don't need to nail my horses down?
  6. Fiona Robertson
    Ok, model peeps. Not an image I ever thought I would see and I really wish I hadn't. Can some of you knowledgeable folks explain to me where this model may be going wrong and what conditions will moderate this into something less extreme? I'm going on the assumption that this scenario will NOT happen and I'm interested to know what parameters may be leading the EC astray here.
  7. Fiona Robertson
    Amber warning issued at 17:07 on Saturday, fir Sunday from 17:00 Sunday to 06:00 Monday for Central, Tayside & Fife, Grampian and Highlands & Eilean Siar. Yellow for the rest of Scotland and north of England down to about Manchester. Thanks Jo. Soz for my post, my page hadn't refreshed. Don't know why, but this one is bothering me more than Malik.
  8. Fiona Robertson
    I'm wondering about the precipitation type from Corrie - snow, sleet rain? I noticed the air is being dragged in from the north later.
  9. Fiona Robertson
    Very sorry to see him go, a true British legend.
  10. Fiona Robertson
    Apple weather app gives Glasgow an 80% chance of snow on Christmas day I therefore declare that the Apple weather app is the greatest model in the world and is the troofiest one ever invented cos it's chock-full of "Da Troof!".
  11. Fiona Robertson
    Funny you should mention the magic crayons. I was just thinking about those and I have to say that a few lines in magic crayon do so much for my understanding. Sometimes I look at a chart covered in lines and I have to ask "Do they mean THIS bit... or THAT bit?". I feel so inadequate.
  12. Fiona Robertson
    OK, at the risk of being hammered by the mods I'd like to sum up this mornings achievements from my point of view. I'm no model guru. I understand very little, if truth be told, but I follow the model threads avidly. I do my best to grasp the nuances, I go off and google that which I'm struggling with. This morning I awoke to 200+ new posts. I grabbed a strong coffee and began my journey of "enlightenment". It wasn't long before I became enlightened that the thread had been closed and off I went to find the new one. Imagine my despair when I discovered it was already at page 40. I downed my coffee in one go and grabbed a second, this time one that the spoon stood up in and slowly dissolved. Quickly I realised that I had no hope of getting through them all so started scrolling and certain phrases jumped out at me. "Bin the GFS", major downgrade", "dartboard low in the Atlantic", "GFS blowing up the Atlantic". I came to the conclusion that quite apart from me being terminally confused and a tad perturbed, the latest run from the GFS is backing off from the major cold spell and snow promise for Christmas. And I saw something which stopped me in my tracks. Apparently there's a "wandering willy" across the country. You can now add a touch of fear to my current mood So, the point of my post? Well, it's to plead with you knowledgeable peeps to give me a very brief summary of what we can sorta expect (with the usual caveats and cautions, of course). I'd also be eternally grateful if anyone can assure me that I"m in no danger from a "wandering willy" in my neck of the woods This is just a lighthearted attempt to understand what's happening with the models and why the GFS seems to do this with stunning regularity. Thank you for your time.
  13. Fiona Robertson
    Well, the wind is only slightly stronger, but we have snow coming in from a slightly NE direction and it's freezingly cold. Snow starting to lie.
  14. Fiona Robertson
    I thought it looked like a really cross octopus having a bad tentace day. How on earth did they manage to fix that cam well enough that it's still there? I'm genuinely curious.
  15. Fiona Robertson
    Thank you!
  16. Fiona Robertson
    ... Must admit though that the footage it streamed was terrifying and awesome. The power of that monster is incredible.
  17. Fiona Robertson
    "The Little Cam That Could". Thanks for that, now I'm emotionally invested in its well-being...
  18. Fiona Robertson
    That extra warm blob in the Gulf waters is particularly worrying. One of the weather channels tweeted out that this particular pool of very warm water also extends to a greater depth than usual so cooling upwelling won't be a "thing". If Ida slows over that puppy, she could be a Cat 5 at landfall.
  19. Fiona Robertson
    Um... "dual hot towers"...
  20. Fiona Robertson
    Got some nice rumbles of thunder going on, heavy rain has eased off, but rumbles still seem close.
  21. Fiona Robertson
    Thank you. I thought I was losing my mind.
  22. Fiona Robertson
    Hang on... I'm confused. Yesty the amber warning was put in place around 10.30 am. I remember scuttling into hubby's home office to tell him we were just on the edge of it. Or did I just dream that and the amber just got put in place? Or is it an update to the area affected?
  23. Fiona Robertson
    I'm using this. I use incognito cos it's full of adverts. You might be lucky and find a live stream being broadcast on YT. https://www.livenewsnow.com/american/weather-channel.html
  24. Fiona Robertson
    This is just a quick C&P from dropsonde data, got it from tropical atlantic site (puter lagging too badly to manage screenshots). "Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 28.41N 92.76W - Time: 23:01:39Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 28.42N 93.02W - Time: 23:08:41Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE) - Wind Speed: 143 knots (165 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 85° (from the E) - Wind Speed: 107 knots (123 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 686mb to 946mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE) - Wind Speed: 137 knots (158 mph)"
  25. Fiona Robertson
    Noticed a wind speed of 153.5 mph in the northeast sector.
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