Fiona Robertson

Well, that's the thing. I don't know if horses have weather sensitivity so it was interesting to look at that in conjunction with model outputs and model verification etc. I'm a former post doc research fellow in bio sciences in the field of xenobiotic metabolism and the feminization of male fish and how their biology and behaviour changes. I'm not talking about woo here, I'm talking about alterations in gene expression patterns. I ask questions, I look for links that are worth investigating and identify links that are so much marsh gas. Is there a link between horse behaviour and cold weather ahead of time? I don't know. When did I notice the change? Did the change happen at the same time as a model or models made a certain prediction? Was that prediction borne out? If you can't discuss comparing model outputs with model verification, how will you know which models appear to be more accurate and within what time frame? Can you even discuss what the weather is doing now and compare it to what the models were predicting for now 5 days ago, 10 days ago?

Thanks, but I was interested in looking at comparisons with the model outputs and model output verification if and when it comes. Best all round if I just go back to being a lurker.

So looking for correlation or otherwise between animal behaviour and model outputs isn't model output related. Got it!

"your pet conspiracy theory"??? Seriously?

Maybe you should make it plain that the model thread is only for those who can take part in deep discussions about the minutiae of the outputs and lay people should just keep out. I'll remember for the future that any post about model verification or otherwise is not allowed there. Glad we cleared that up.

Well, the relevance of models is that the behaviour began around the time of the vortex split and has continued, despite model downgrades today. Does this behaviour in any way correlate to what the models are telling us? Is one model correlating whilst others are not? And when we reach the nowcast, is there any correlation? Nothing to do with model outputs? It's everything to do with model outputs.

Called Hiya and, would you believe, Storm! His Sunday name is Calanais Storm

Do you know what the really annoying thing is? Last time we had a split vortex and polar temps (it was -14C with blue skies), I hadn't made the observation about horses drinking more when cold is on the way. I spent 2 weeks desperately trying to get water to them after every supply in the place froze. All I remember about that was spending 2 hours a day with a kettle trying to unfreeze the tap and pipes at the stables.

My post had 10 likes before it was removed. I think my mistake was not mentioning a Murr sausage.

I don't have a copy of the post. It was just deleted. However, I'll try to summarise and add more info to make the connection to the model outputs more apparent. Just over a week ago my horses started drinking much, much more than normal. Now, I've noticed in previous years that they do this usually 24-48 hours prior to a really cold spell. Around the time they started drinking more, the polar vortex had either split or was about to split cos of the SSW. Even although a really cold spell didn't follow in the usual time frame, they continued to completely finish their water every single night, even the one who hardly drinks anything. We're talking 40 litres a night here. On top of that they've become unusually subdued yesterday and today and I noticed we had tiny ice crystals falling when I brought them in. They were sticking to me like glue on the way to the stables and even although their feeds were there, they went straight to their water. The have water in their field and they're drinking more in the field as well. Now, this is unusual. It's not the normal behaviour I usually see before a cold snap. This has been prolonged. In discussion with a vet in the past it's apparently known that horses are known for increasing their water intake prior to a clod spell. It's thought that this is an evolutionary survival mechanism whereby they ensure that they have plenty of water on board before supplies freeze solid. I'm interested to see if this more extreme form of behaviour is going to be followed by a historic plunge into the deep freeze. To do this, I have to watch the model outputs and note the behaviour of the horses. I'm interested for two reasons - I have horses and I'm a former research biologist. So I've become interested in looking at horse behaviour prior to weather events and especially correlations between specific model outputs, horse behaviour and eventual weather outcomes.

OK, you lot have done it again. I'm suffering from information overload and every time I try to catch up you all post again. Can someone please confirm if my grasp is right. Cold temps below freezing nailed on for next week, Tuesday onwards. Snow at a decent probability, but not quite nailed on. Quite a lot of snow debatable and dependent on region.

OK, the whole gaggle of you.... STOP!!!!! Seriously, you lot are incorrigible. I go away for 24 hrs and come back to over a dozen pages of posts. Man, only the terminally enthusiastic could manage to wade through that little lot so I scanned it and now I'm terminally confused. There are cheers, tears, mild snivelling, someone doing a barn dance. What my quick scan has managed to glean is that the SSW is "nailed on" and is gonna happen with a PV displaced and wandering in our direction, but a PV split is more sorta held on with a post it note. Please, someone, take pity on this bear of little brain and give me a short summary...

Given that just about every winter we end up disappointed when we wish for snow, I've come to the conclusion that our weather reads this forum and goes out of its way to let us down. On that basis, I hypothesise that the best way to get snow is to start wishing for a strong Spanish plume to get a heatwave. If we all start whiffling about that we should end up in the freezer within days.

That looks horrid for me.

Keeping an eye on this puppy. I'm leaving the horses out tonight and bringing them in early in the morning. They were stuck in for 2 days this week and went ballistic when they got out yesterday, damn near killed me. I'm hoping by the morning they'll be rather keen to come in. I noticed that the winds pick up through the Central belt ahead of everywhere else. That's a bit boding for me. Please keep your updates and thoughts coming, you have no idea how useful they are.

Would you believe it, I got called to go collect someone just as the dratted thing came ashore and then fell asleep as soon as I got back. I've spent days watching this thing develop!

Never thought I'd ever type this sentence here, but needs must Michael is now creeping up to Pineapple Willie's.

Thank you so much! I can find all sorts of weird and wonderful sites in hidden corners of the net, but for some reason I really suck at finding live webcams. No matter what I try I end up with utter rubbish.

Got a 948 and a 126 mph few minutes ago. It's gonna make it to Cat 4, I can feel it in me water.

Anyone got any decent web cam links?

Recent wind speed 113.9 mph, pressure 954 and it's still a long way from land.

Is it just me or is it further west than anticipated?

Is it just me or is it slightly further west than anticipated?

They've mentioned the possibility of a Cat 4 at landfall, but more likely a 3. We'll see. I think they're underestimating this thing.

Now officially a Cat 2.