Lukesluckybunch
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Posts posted by Lukesluckybunch
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Ukmo day 5!
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Not too long for the 12z runs..icon first out,hopefully a continuation of its 6z run..it was showing a clean easterly at 120!
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1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:
Oh cold rain, everyone loves that!
Well it didn't turn out good...ecm is the one we want,snow on that chart by day 10
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Gfs will probably be pretty awesome by day 9/10 with the low engaging with the trough over scandi..let's see..having said that..the low is very rounded and organised..we could do with a sharper looking one
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120 icon has -4/6 uppers..compared to 0z run..with 0.850's
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Already upgraded on the icon..a stronger hp over scandi.and the cold to the east is slightly closer!
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1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:
I've a feeling this setup could upgrade yet! The ingredients are there, we just need things to align a bit better. It's not too late for disruptive snow, as was proved across Dublin yesterday
A few runs from this morning..look particularly interesting..in the days 7-10 timeframe!
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32 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:
To all the people saying no chance of southern uk snow now and upper air temperatures etc well here’s 2” of something this morning
and still coming down (I’m at 150’ asl) 
Amazon scenes!whereabouts is frampton?
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Day 10 ecm..I can't take much more of this!
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Big run at day 8 coming up on the ecm.. will it slide and open the door to the freezer?..no the low moved north and ruined the setup!..
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Control day 9!
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Ukmo day 7 wasn't expecting to be quite as good..let's hope it sticks with its output this time!
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2 minutes ago, andymusic said:
Lukesluckybunch while the gfs 12z just keeps on giving with another major reversal easterly on the op
Surely the cold to the east at 222..can't miss us..or maybe it can
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We really can't trust the ukmo model..it's been so bad recently!the 12z is a big downgrade!
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Increased blocking on the gefs mean...in the favoured areas..I guess that's a start!
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Heres the mean at 132..would it not benefit us if the centre of the high..was further west?
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1 minute ago, IDO said:
The Scandi high is sinking from D9, so by D11:
Absolutely IDO..what did I just say about the cold..and where it normally goes!
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Lovley mild sector around the uk!
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3 minutes ago, MJB said:
Cold is incoming
Your not wrong..possible bitter by day 10
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Just now, IDO said:
Yes, returning to the mean profile.No shocker. Versus 0z:
06z:
0z:
It is not mild but is a missed opportunity if the mean verifies.
See it so often..the cold spreading down into central eastern europe..a chilly southeasterly with highs of 7/8c looks likely outcome currently in my opinion
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The 6z looking a lot like the ecm
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I know its a lesser model but the chart for me this morning is the icon 180!it would likely turn very cold after!
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18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Regardless of the ECM op looking less enthusiastic this morning the signal for high pressure to the east or ne remains .
It is especially hard for a decent easterly here in the uk..as many have said it's actually quite rare!what is usually the case is the main core of the cold gets diverted down into central and eastern europe!it can be incredibly frustrating here in uk
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Have a feeling the ec op..will be on the milder side..
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
-8 uppers in South at 120