cheeky_monkey

seems to me this has turned into model discussion thread part 2

What you have to remember is that this is a N.American forecast..and what happens in the Pacific has a huge effect on the weather here..those August charts were based on a developing EL Nino which right now is looking like it wont happen..so i would expect something a little different if and when they update there forecast in the next 4 weeks or so?

Had a beautiful autumn day yesterday nice sunny and warm temps close to 21c..however snow is the forecast for the weekend..i fear warm sunny days are on their last hurraah right now

i watched that video it showed a blocked Atlantic and Greenland in their August chart but their latest one from from September towards the end of the video clearly showed no blocking over Greenland in fact they were going for lower than normal pressure values in that area..in fact listening to the guy it seemed he was covering all basis saying it could be mild but also it could be cold at the same time...maybe that's because last winter they got it totally 100% wrong!

Looks like conflicting offerings Jamstec is a La Nina pattern whilst the Beijing model is more of a El Nino pattern

what i mean is people tend to latch on to the next big thing like it is the be all and end all..and forget there are a myriad of pieces in that puzzle not just one or two.

One of my best friends lives in Maidstone... fantastic footballer he was..do miss a good curry

Strat watching has become the new SST watching...5 or 6 years ago it was all the rage for posters in here to be looking at sea surface temperatures as a way of predicting cold weather patterns etc..now the emphasis has shifted to watching the state of the stratosphere in the Arctic as a way of trying to gauge any up and coming cold spells..new ones such as summer ice melt in the Arctic are emerging and old chestnuts like Siberian snow cover seem to making a comeback too...all of these conflicting signals make it almost impossible to call a cold winter in a small island of the NW coast of Europe..lets just hope for a nice big volcanic eruption near by to help things along

this will happen towards the mid end of Dec..if this years freeze is below that average come March..then expect a new record low next year...me thinks

But it seems to be ok to say that JB got it right etc etc...woe be tide anyone who post about anything mild in a winter thread ...its quickly turning into the shambles that is the model thread during the winter period and becoming a topic to avoid...im sad to say

Everybody is allowed an opinion...where did it say winter is over either??????

Nice i wish i was going back to England...looking like a cold last week of October here...looks OK next week then getting colder there after. where you off to?

Sunshine temps 22- 25c rain only at night please low humidity..and cool nights..not far from what i get already here, this summer just gone was perfect apart from temps possibly being +5c higher than required.

yes got a light covering..was cold all day yesterday until about 4oclock then the temperature suddenly rose from -1c to +6c and the snow was gone by 6oclock

Here you go snow pics of one of my sites in downtown Calgary

woke up to a covering snow this morning not unexpected..tbh im fed up of snow already and its only 11th October..maybe someone can start a summer 2013 now so we can talk about sunshine and warm weather to get me through the next 6 months!

Edmonton on average has nearly 100 ice days per year and having endured those winters you do hope and pray for mild weather..almost the reverse of what everybody here prays for. If there was a weather forum here like this im sure everyone would be looking for signals for a mild winter and remembering the long mild spells of whatever year when it got up to +10c on some days!

here is the map for records set last week

There were 1150 cold records broken last week in the USA last week and there were 450 warm records broken last week in the USA during the same period...each week there are lots of cold and warm records broken south of the border..next week could be the reverse its all pretty usual..you need too look for a trend of long weeks of high or low records being broken not just one week..if the cold records continue to outweigh the warm records for the next 3 weeks or so then its news worthy.

There is nothing unusual about the weather in America right now pretty standard stuff for this time of year.

Really do not see how you can squeeze an El nino even out of this esp as those SST off the coast of Peru seem to be getting colder weekly? if anything looks like a La nina event developing which could flip those long range N.American winter forecasts on their heads!

probably last years stock that they couldnt shift

i think someone posted on here with charts too prove that winter 2011/12 was an average winter overall in western europe with a colder than average feb offset by a milidish dec and jan...so wasnt a brutal winter at all!

only a temporary covering im afraid

Feb 86 Jan 87 and Feb 91 were classic recent Scandi High scenarios