Methuselah
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Everything posted by Methuselah
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And I bet that, just as night follows day, the two that stand-out for me are the two least likely to happen! -
Is that a fully-fledged Scandi-High I see - in its usual place of T+384? If only!
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And there's still a (albeit marginal) chance of an Orthodox White Christmas...T+336!
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Maybe an outside chance of seeing a snow-grain at T+210...?
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So...with 850s (at least initially) between, say 4-9C and with fairly tight isobars, tomorrow really doesn't look like being anything to write home about...But - at least it'll be mild!
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Let's just hope that, by this time tomorrow, it's been upgraded to 'screaming potential'?
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Has the the makings of one of those messy 'rain, sleet or snow' scenarios, I feel? Still, anything's preferable to hearing weather presenters close with the dreaded 'at least it'll be mild' expression!
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As I've said before, there have been many winters in which cold northerly blasts have been interspersed with, often longer, periods during which milder Atlantic air has come around the northern side of Atlantic HPs...It's not always a strictly 'either-or' (frigid-ridiculously mild) scenario...The grey area in-between can be quite substantial?
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My kitten-cat (I don't how he's weather-related exactly?) is a bit of a nutter: He(?) likes food that I throw across the room, attacks my feet, and licks the skin off my scalp when I'm meant to be asleep...But he'll make a wonderful companion! PS: I've just discovered that he's afraid of my Celtic drum!
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Thanks, Nick. That explains it perfectly!
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Thanks for the heads-up, Nick - though I'll never profess to fully understanding your posts, I do invariably read them... One question that I have is: how is it that the models (not just the GFS) can show a Greeny High of circa 1050mb that then vanishes within the space 3 hours? Anywho, tomorrow we might all be luck enough to wake-up to a 'Homvoller' of a run?
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Agreed, Phil...Even this morning's opening shot (the one that went in off the post) barely grazed the side-netting, on the 12Z...A temporary blip in the overall pattern, perhaps...The Chinese Year of The Slug?
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I know I really shouldn't say this (but why the hell not!): it could all 'flop' back again, come the 12Z...
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Can't say as I'm too bothered should what the models are currently indicating manifests as a series of 'topplers' (3 or more)... I can recall many a winter, right back as far as the '60s, in which 2-4-day cold, snowy snaps were punctuated by 1-2-week-long spells of mild mush, as Atlantic lows came around the top of mid-Atlantic blocks... While a quasi-stationary Greenland block would be the beezneez, it's far from necessary, IMO...
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Just a bit, karyo...If tomorrow's update contains the words '...of a very cold and protracted big freeze with copious amounts of snow' I'll be more than content!
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But, Frosty, as devout followers of GFSism - lest we forget: that which the 06Z giveth; that which the 12Z taketh away? Cautious optimism is the order of the day?
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Looking good to me...Even a chance of an Orthodox white Christmas? But, anywho, the trend for HP setting-up shop away to our west seems to be growing by the day. Long may it continue!
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Methuselah replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aye, 2012/13 was a funny one: usually, it probably wouldn't be all that memorable; so, I guess it must be down to the fact that it contained more snow-days on its own, than all of the subsequent winters combined? -
And the ECM serves an ace...But wait - what will Hawkeye say?
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Well, PIT, I'm glad I raised my initial guess from 3.9 to 4.4C...And fat lot of good it did me!
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And just to rub it in...if only it were June! I'll get my coat!
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And, just in case anyone had thought I'd exhausted my supply of pathetic tennis-related metaphors, Mr GFS has just sent a potentially match-winning backhand drive-volley right between the tramlines!
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But hopefully not the meteorological equivalent of a drop-shot that fails to go over the net!
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Watching the GFS ooze out is like watching tennis pre-Andy Murray: That's three match points for Mr Plucky-Brit...Oh my goodness, what a time to serve 5 straight double-faults!
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Hi Ian, and a merry Christmas to you... Are you saying that (having accounted for the slowing of Earth's rotation, due to the gravitational drag due to the Moon, Solar System and Universe as a whole) that the Coriolis Effect will ensure that (on average) high-latitude westerlies will inevitable overpower any transient easterlies? If so, then isn't it a wee bitty obvious? PS: I'm not intending to come across as being rude. I am genuinely interested.
