Methuselah

I remember the Braer Storm well: the only time I can ever recall snow up to the living-room window sill (and all with a WSW gale)...Scotland can really do well given a wee bit of RPM!

Okay then... Based solely on an expectation of a very dry Europe, summer could get off to an early start, and temperature records might be under threat? Right, that's that buggered, then!

I'll second you on that one, Frosty - a very merry Christmas to all NW's model self-abusers. (I mean enthusiasts!) I doubt the words 'deep, crisp and even' will be featuring, however!

I'm almost certain that I can recall the dear, old Express predicting a mini ice-age for early 1975? If so, it may have been the first in a long and illustrious line of the DE's meteorological successes!

And another stonker at T+384! Sometimes, I wish that the GFS only went out to T+240!

At its current rate of retrogression it might even reach Greenland by May 1...Oh %$£*! Not another 2012!

Daytime temps will be very dependent on wind speed/direction, I think: a long-fetch southerly could produce some very mild afternoons (cloudiness permitting); then again, a seventy-two hours' long spell of continuous fog could allow for some cold nights and cold days??

Aye, karl, there's little point in being overly pessimistic, at his stage in proceedings...Even though the current supply of drinking tubes might seem a wee bit sparse?

And, whilst the models do their thing, the great British weather be doing something else altogether!

Indeed, even should (heaven forbid) the potential not be realised, it's still there; it's plain for all to see...But - a word of caution, before we all buy snowshoes - it is only potential!

I do hope so, Ice...But, before then, we have a potential barbie-day before the year is out!

Well Mark, as I'm currently experiencing my 59th December, 1981 and 2010 are the only two that I can recall...Does one-in-thirty sound about right?

And the 'wonderfully accurate and true' alternative to the BBC is...?

I must admit, that my being a fan of extremes, the T+201(?) has me wondering just how warm can a January day actually be: javascript: viewimage(1);

I think knocker was referring to the warm part of 'interesting', Stew. Not that either scenario will likely ever become reality...

Interesting 06Z today: two potentially damaging storms in the short-term; in the middle-term, a few days' TM air with 850s of almost 10C, and, last but not least, the one that will never verify: the magic that frequents the T+384 time period! So, it's as you were: all to play for and more runs needed!

Sometimes football makes a good analogy (perhaps!) for the weather? How many times (since the time of the K-T boundary) have Spurs been probabilistically 'favoured' to win things? And, how many times have said 'things' failed to materialise? Well, aren't probabilistic weather models similarly afflicted?

And March!

I'm not at all sure it's a matter of badly-performing models, igloo, as I've yet to hear a single example - outside of the tabloids - of anyone stating categorically that either 'it will' or 'it won't'? It wasn't the fault of GloSea that many individuals chose to take the then probabilistic preference for blocking, as being a coded way of forecasting ice, snow and blizzards now, was it? IMO, we have had the blocking but, unfortunately for us, it's not been in our preferred location. That's all...

Well, if the extended range of the GFS shows anything, it's that, at T+384, numerical weather-forecasting models are not yet quite up to the job; they're getting better, yes, but there's still along way to go... The Law of Diminishing Returns is - I think - very pertinent when applied to computational advances; just because the MetO or NASA (or the Daily Express!) can double their computational power doesn't mean that their forecasts' accuracy-time will noticeably increase as a result? Personally, I think it'll be many years before 15-Day forecasts become properly viable, if they ever do; mathematical chaos might be a bugger to get round, no matter how elaborate the calculator is? I'm hoping that some of our resident mathematicians might come to my aid, here. I think I need it!

Not too many GFS straws to clutch there, I am afraid...Over to you, Frosty?

Aye, I went to see Tommy, in Leicester Square - had to spend the entire night in Euston station...For reasons unbeknown to anyone but them, the Fuzz kept waking everyone up! Twas some storm!

Aye, we all need wait and see; even if today's upcoming runs point us in our desired direction, it'll be still much too early to break out the bubbly!

Good to see that even your silver linings are getting (pardon the pun) thin on the ground, Karl... That said, the GFS in FI, together with the MetO's latest updates are looking increasingly optimistic...We have of course been there before!

Reasons for cautious optimism, on today's 06Z, I'd suggest? Possibilities seem to exist for either an easterly outbreak, a northerly outbreak or even, dare I say it - both... The only downside is that it's all so far out in La La Land, it'll have (as it stands) less than a 50% chance of verifying? Let's just hope it does!