Methuselah

Well, I'll certainly not be agreeing with that statement, TEITS...At least they're nae 'a waste of time' when there in the hands of those who know how to use them... That doesn't include yours truly, BTW!

But it was the operationals peeps were citing, TEITS? I'm sure it was a GFS 06Z operational that started the ball rolling, in the first place?

I believe that the next update is due tomorrow? But I'm not really looking-forward to it!

Well, not for the first time, I am at a complete and utter loss as to how the Met has reached that conclusion...Any ideas?

Does that mean that the op and control have exchanged places, within the mass of entangled chaos that exists, past about T+144?

An interesting though frustrating run, I think?? From a purely meteorological perspective, it's almost as if the entire NH has reached an impasse, from which it might never escape; from the other angle - of one who enjoys looking out the window - a set of blackout curtains might be a wise investment? On a more positive note, however - both Sydney's assets and lassie's gerbil will be sighing with relief... Oh, and lest we forget: the muppets at the dear old Daily Express have gone and done it again! Roll on the 12Z!

I'm guessing that that's largely due to the fact that, although models can, and do, jump from one solution another, in a nanosecond, the actual weather doesn't change course at all - it just evolves, rolls out as it were...

What 'cold spells' has the ECM failed to call? There haven't been any...

Quite possible that successive op-runs merely occupy a different place in the pack, and does not necessarily mean that the run overall was significantly warmer than its predecessor?

Indeed. And there's nothing better at tweaking one's in-built scepticism than enduring the wit and wisdom of a Monckton or a Delingpole?

Ah, that one: a worst-case scenario, put forward as just that, and nothing more; but, now used as a straw-man hypothesis by deniers?

I usually find that, as a rule-of-thumb, northerly-sourced air with uppers of about -9C or less is sufficient, for snow to fall to sea-level, on the coast...An easterly is an entirely different kettle of fish, however.

And, as if to prove your point, Dev - I don't even know what CAGW is!

False attribution seems very popular in our new post-truth society, doesn't it Malcolm? TBH, I'd far rather accept the conclusions of the IPPC & Co than play 'he said, she said' with self-styled 'sceptics'!

The sun was far from spotless in 1947? I think some folks were even attributing February's monster snowfalls to the high number of sunspots? So you'll forgive if I remain unconvinced, John?

Can't say that I'm entirely convinced by that run; in particular regarding the uppers (entrained within the circulation of the Orthodox Xmas Day LP) of around -5C: not only have most other runs indicated uppers of a couple of degrees lower, at least, but I cannot abide rain & sleet. Like the end though - that'll do nicely!

Phew! For a wee second there, I thought that maybe the MetO had gone and 'tweaked' the weather?

2.2C for me, please...

Whilst I'd love to see a protracted easterly, chio, I'd most certainly not welcome anything like today's 06Z: Snow by the bucket-load? Yes. Freezing-fog? Yes. A week between -10 and -20C - snow or not? Not on your life! I think we can all be thankful that that particular run will never verify!

It would?

Okay then... Unless something almost meteorologically 'impossible' happens between now and Sunday, a 2/3-day-long and reasonably potent Northerly looks odd-on: if it isn't then we might as well all give up now? Around January 6-7, what could be a prolonged spell of colder weather looks increasingly likely. But likely does not mean certain (we are after all all in the UK!) so it 'could' always still go the way-of-the-pear - so prepare for the worst and hope for the best ought to be good advice? My personal preference? As snowy as but not nearly as cold as what the 06Z was suggesting...Are daytime maxima of -10C really what folks want to see? Wouldn't -2C do?

Aye Dev...But when 'normal (whatever the fook that means) human activities' decimate wildlife it's merely a 'that's life' situation. It's only 'green things' that get the natives restless!

I would respectfully disagree with you there, W...There is but one 'option on the table': the actual weather...And, IMO, no one individual model-run has ever yet predicted it 100% correctly?

TBH, WIB, it's hard to see it happening any other way, I think; I don't believe I've ever experienced a 7-day period that's both as cold and as snowy as that one's projected to be? Anywho, perhaps it'll be 61st time lucky!

Even though the bulk of any deep cold is way out there in La La Land, the onset of the cold itself (6/1/17) is quite close to the edge of 'the reliable'?