Methuselah

I know what you mean, booferking - do all the reverential references to the NAVGEM model mean that all the other models (last week's 'big three') are suggesting another 2-3 weeks' mild, wet, rubbish?

Why ever not? Knocker's woodshed is hardly sacrosanct!

But that's what I mean, Nick - the block isn't over Scandinavia. Ergo, we all need wait a while before we see any meaningful cold?

Well, were it not for that axiom, wouldn't all numerical models be bunk? If the weather is, as you seem to be suggesting, impossible to predict - what is the point? We may, as well, all go home?

I can't agree with that, Nick: the models may be undecided but the weather isn't. I think that that axiom may well be what underlies all the numerical-models, anyhoo?

Well, Nick - I, for one, will not be keeping any 'faith'...If cold and snowy easterlies do arrive - it'll be nowt to do with 'faith'!

I can still recall being made to watch footy on TV (1962 - I think - SPURS vs somebody?) and not being able to see the point...So, what's more (or less?) likely - a blizzard of 31/12/62 proportions, or Spurs winning the League?

Nothing is ever set in stone, booferking? But I really do want to see a snow-fest. Maybe from the east, in March and the north in April? Anyhoo - it's all too far out for the models to predict?

Anything could happen, Bristle: warm, windy, mild, cold...And Spurs might win the EPL!

I was trying to be subtle!

In the last five minutes, I've seen 'forecasts' for a snow-fest from the east and a PM incursion from the north-west...I'm getting confused!

But - there's no more 'glory' in a mild winter than there is in a cold one? IMO, we will get what we get and make do. The models do not control the weather.

Well, Daniel - exceptionally warm or exceptionally cold (and snowy) I'll take whatever comes my way. So long as it's nae dreich!

Was it really? I was in Penge in February 2012, and apart from a week or so (and a few flakes of snow) it was nothing out of the ordinary...

Blimey! I drove that road for 20-odd years; but this's the first time the snow-gates have been closed because of rain...I think!

During the past two months, the GFS has been described at 'too progressive', both in terms of its willingness (it's a numerical model, not a person!) to build HP areas over Scandinavia and to bring in the Atlantic too soon...Hasn't the real weather been the final arbiter on those claims?

I well remember saying exactly that, in January 1975...Some of the snowfalls, come March, April, May and June were quite memorable.

Really, Nick?

But how? The Government (Tory, Labour, SNP) can release funds immediately after a crisis, but what can they do, today? I was in Glenurquhart, back in the early 1990s, when the Enrick washed the entire road away, after a massive snow-melt and broke the water mains...I saw no point in blaming anyone - it was, after all, the sun (with some help from monsoon-type rain) what done it! Aye, we need a long-term plan to combat the effects of climate change. But are we going to get such a thing while eminent 'meteorologists' are still telling us that the globe is cooling? So, despite wanting to continually scratch my head at the intransigence of many politicians, I don't think we can blame Cameron's government for what is currently transpiring. Above all, we should be getting all the help we can to those in the firing line...

Indeed, leaving politics out of what is an entirely natural disaster might be a good idea?

Can we please refrain from discussing past winters (1947) in here? Here is the proper thread: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84396-past-winters-discussion/

And, with no ramping whatsoever, a new article on the possible ramifications of the current Super Nino: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-35197887

Rather than argue about whose floods are worse (or blaming this or that person or government department) wouldn't we be better off all getting behind those affected?

Having looked at those charts, my guess would be for a rather unpredictable mixture of heavy rain and sleet, with snow mainly on hills, and fast-moving lows with associated warm sectors...A right old kitchen-sink job, in other words...

I agree, Sam - and I was very sceptical to begin with.