[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Totally agree, loving this mild winter although we could do with less rain of course, no car windscreen scraping, no snow. and low heating bills, long may it continue.

Absolutely agree CH...Snow can be great but, once in a while, spending a winter in shirtsleeves and not giving half one's income to EON, or whomever, is also something to savour... 

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

Hi all, forgive my total lack of knowledge here, but just wondering about the Ice storm hitting NY and Canada. What is the possibility of that weather coming our way - even as more rain? Doesn't it often follow that what they get we get a week later - or is that an old wives tale??

 

Many thanks, Woody

Afraid so, Woody...With very few exceptions, the UK's cold, snowy weather comes from anywhere between NW through NE and sometimes SE...But timings can sometimes lead to confusion...

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

With any luck, the warm seas will cause a snow bonanza...I wonder what the pub run will show?

[Cooling climate]

Haven't read the book so can't really comment. Perhaps some expansion on, "some convincing evidence that we are heading into a climate like the Dalton minimum" may help.

A global fall of temperature would be ideal evidence, too...

[South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 31/12/13]

What a stonker of a thunderstorm that was: purple C-Gs, shotgun thunder, big hail tat's still lying; better than of last summer's efforts put together! 

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

"Phasing" is when 2 low pressure systems merge and become 1.

But a low isn't an 'energy' though, is it?

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

When you talk about phasing and phased energies what exactly do you mean?

I wish I knew the answer to that one too...How many 'phases' are we talking about? What are 'energies' anyway?

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

CFS Long range model still showing a well below average March and then summer looks to be going down the

plug hole big time, no sign of high pressure over the uk at all and its been showing this for a while .

 

Shotski

The dear, old CFS is having a hard time of things just now, isn't it?

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

Its a very straight forward scenario to play out - the low goes into Central Canada we have a chance- as ridging will be the thing getting it there-

 

If the low becomes a fish storm & drops off the coast early A LA GFS- then its game over.

 

 

A straight forward scenario- but very very difficult to model-

The jet variance is just 2/300 miles difference in track- especially when it comes to the SW tip of Greenland - but that small difference effects the entire pattern for the following 10-15 days.

 

The bottom line is theres only 1 solution- the models haven't agreed which one it is yet.

 

Glad to see the GEM bucking the trend tonight- we could end up at a typical stalemate of GEM + ECM V UKMO / GFS.  Pick the bones out of that one,  whatever the case Im sure most people including the mildies are sick & tired of the wind & rain & would be glad of a bit of seasonal weather-

 

Eyes down for the ECM.,

S

Thank God we've got you then, Steve...

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Indeed, completely different: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Dd0EaEbqg

Apologies folks: I forgot to say Happy New Year to y'all. 

 

And hope that the models start showing some upcoming coldness...

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

GFS 06z is completely different to the 00z. But also vastly different to the ECM, UKMO and GEM which all in turn differ from each other at 5/6 days out.

Need a lie down 

Indeed, completely different: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Dd0EaEbqg

[January 2014 CET forecasts]

I shall have to revise my forecast from my original thoughts of 3c back in Nov a little now, I thought we may get a more respectable CET going into the last week, I still haven't changed my thoughts of a potential very cold last few days but the mild start going to kill off any chance of below average month.

 

4.4 please.

 

If it was for my location, I could see it returning a figure a degree below that but not for Worcester.

You've moved in the same direction as me, then...Is that a guaranteed -12?

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Tomorrow afternoon when you wake up from your hangover, the polar vortex will be forecast to split and a cold spell will be forecast for mid January. Or is that  the drink talking.

Russian Standard humour?

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Nope, but a couple days or so later all the country has an easterly or north easterly 

 

But that's 2 days' later...

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Actually Shed that chart does not show an easterly, it shows a northerly across some parts of the UK, Ireland a more SW tilt to the wind. But the following days the wind becomes more a NE, still it wasn't a lenghthy cold spell until late janaury

 

 

No; I think Shed's right: an easterly in the south, a southerly in the north?

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1946/Rrea00119461215.gif

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Thanks for clarifying your previous comments with the above Ian. If correct (and its a big IF...again in the interest of clarity for some) it does looks as though the best chance of meaningful cold will be across the final third of Winter, which hopefully will prove to be well worth the wait.

But - arguably - a smaller 'if' than applies to some of the other prognostications?

[Technological life elsewhere in the Galaxy/Universe]

The factor which is hard to grasp is time.Earth has not been here very long compared to the universe, but billions of years have passed before anything 'technological' happened here, and even being very optimistic it might only last the blink of an eye on the timescale of the Universe.So there almost  certainly have been technologically advanced lifeforms but maybe that was Aeons ago.Getting two at that special moment within communication distance must be unfathomably difficult. 

Pretty much how I feel about it, 4...I find it impossible to think that the entire Universe if lifeless, apart from us. i'd even like to hope that God - if there even is such a thing - would have learned from the obvious flaws in this particular creation, and gone on to create something better?

[Manmade Climate Change Discussion]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-47#entry2879275

 

That statement is threatening to unbalance my chakras, disturb my aura and encourage a sudden extrusion of ectoplasm. Peer review is dangerous! Bah Humbug!

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Indeed, and I personally don't rate the monthlies one bit along with the ECM32 which they utilise to compose them. They are no more likely to get the long range stuff right then most who post on the MOD thread, now up until 10-15 days they are second to none.

Not so sure about that assertion, SI...Unless you're referring to the minority who rightly suggested that the previous month would be dominated by westerlies and a dominant polar vortex? Those who, IMO anyway, are too readily dismissed at 'trolls'?

[January 2014 CET forecasts]

3.1 please.

A minor uplift to my guess: 4.1...

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

The ECM long wave upper profile has about 20% support from the GEFS at around T240: ECH1-240 (1).png

 

Those supporting members do go on to develop S.Euro upper troughs with the AH also edging NE. So if ECM is correct, then more interest in D10-15. However with the ECM notorious for over amping, I wait to be convinced. The GFS mean has a flat NH in our sector with the N.Pacific ridging the main LW driver:

 

gensnh-21-1-240 (1).png

 

This would put pressure on the Canadian vortex and maintain the push of energy towards the Atlantic. The GEM op in this ballpark:

 

gemnh-0-240 (5).png obviously along with the main cluster of GEFS.

 

The clustering at the end of FI suggests the Canadian vortex is in a lull and the 65% zonal clusterings are less disturbed and this appears to allow the AH to push the pattern north:

 

Screenshot_30_12_2013_09_44.png

 

Lets see if ECM can get it right for once re phasing of the vortex energy and allow a more amplified pattern.

The what? 

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

is piers corbyn`s  metholdgy anything to go by ?

IMO, 'no'...But his gratuitous use of eye-catching fonts, I find to be more than a little suggestive of misdirection... 

 

And, as for his accuracy? Well, very few or none of his 'successes' ever lie outside of climatology... 

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Heard Jo speaking on LBC earlier; the immediate outlook still looks mostly Atlantic-driven. But, just because neither computer models nor forecasters have pinpointed any major imminent pattern-change, doesn't mean that a change'll not happen anyway - four weeks is a long time?

[January 2014 CET forecasts]

3.1 please.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

f.

 

Oh and the met office agree with me as well they are saying zonal to at least the end of Jan. Like CC says lets keep it real.

 

 

And the MetO is absolutely never wrong! IMO, it's too soon to be counting your chickens?