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emmett garland

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    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    200 pages a week which equates to snow falling imminently.. my model output is heavy convective snow and really bitterly easterlies or NNEasterlies  from wednesday as all the trends show, so christmas heaven and honestly from my heart if this trend continues Im cancelling my xmas holiday to Spain (fly 22nd) as its my dream to be sat at home watching snow fall on Christmas eve. Its 99 percent of all wishes..

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    November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Congratulations to freeze who is our annual contest winner. Feb1991Blizzard fought hard to the end to defend his title won last year and finished second. Reef kept climbing up the standings to finish third. 

    In the autumn seasonal points race, the top three were shillitocettwo (28.06), J10 (26.67) and Weather26 (21.22). 

    The other three seasonal winners were (winter) freeze (28.73), (spring) the PIT (22.58) and (summer) the PIT again (25.93).

    Any very small changes required from November table entry difference from tracker (158.5 mm) will be edited in here, and if there are any significant changes they will be noted, or this will change to "no significant changes occurred." November EWP (and CET) scoring ranks can be seen in the table posted on 1st Dec with CET scoring ranks and best combined info. 

    Thanks for supporting the EWP contest. After the 5th I will post a link to the supporting excel file which contains interesting data such as your all-time scoring, numbers of contests won over five years, and a tabulation of best combined forecasts.

     

    ==== <<<< EWP CONTEST FINAL SCORING (updated estimates) >>>> ====

    Some minor changes will be edited into this post on 5th Dec if the November EWP changes from tracker total of 158.5 mm. 

    Rank ___ Forecaster _________ Points ____ Avg err (rank) ________ Seasonal ranks

    _ 01 _____ Freeze _____________ 77.39 ____ 23.40 ( 1) _____________ 01 26 06 26

    _ 02 _____ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 71.64 ____ 27.68 ( 6) _____________ 02 17 05 31

    _ 03 _____ Reef ________________ 68.84 ____ 27.38 ( 5) _____________ 37 07 08 12

    _ 04 _____ Polar Gael __________ 67.60 ____ 31.52 (22) _____________09 13 17 21 

    _ 05 _____ the PIT _____________ 66.51 ____ 29.72 (14) _____________ 20 01 01 53

    _ 06 _____ Mr Maunder _______ 66.37 ____ 27.18 ( 4) ______________16 18 25 05

    _ 07 _____ J 10 _________________66.16 ____ 28.75 (11) _____________ 13 34 34 02

    _ 08 _____ Mulzy _______________66.13 ____ 28.27 ( 8.)______________ 27 12 02 40

    _ 09 _____ weather-history ____ 65.79 ____ 28.32 ( 9) ______________ 55 03 12 10

    _ 10 _____ bobd29 _____________65.64 ____ 30.01 (16) ______________10 04 31 27

    _ 11 _____ DR(S)NO ____________63.69 ____ 30.38 (19) ______________23 23 18 15

    _ 12 _____ Don ________________ 63.45 ____ 30.57 (20) ______________30 11 24 13

    _ 13 _____ Roger J Smith ______ 62.87 ____ 28.82 (12) ______________ 06 31 16 30

    _ 14 _____ Neil N ______________ 62.26 ____ 28.65 (10) ______________ 29 08 28 17

    _ 15 _____ rwtwm _____________ 60.62 ____ 31.10 (21) ______________ 32 25 13 22

    _ 16 _____ February1978 ______ 60.44 ____ 30.23 (17) ______________ 08 48 20 04

    _ 17 _____ virtualsphere _______ 60.29 ____ 30.35 (18) ______________ 26 10 36 06

    _ 18 _____ Midlands Ice Age ___ 58.97 ____ 33.53 (28) ______________ 28 43 09 18

    _ 19 _____ Emmett Garland ____58.47 ____ 33.67 (29) ______________ 41 24 15 19

    _ 20 _____ seaside60 (11) ______ 58.07 ____ 32.06 (24) ______________ 05 30*07 50

     

    _ 21 ___ prolongedSnowLover (11) _ 57.96 ____ 29.35 (13) ______________ 47 06 22*25

    _ 22 _____ shillitocettwo (11) ___57.59 ____ 36.46 (34) ______________ 64 36 19*01

    _ 23 _____ Ed Stone ____________ 56.97 ____ 32.18 (25) ______________ 14 15 30 32

    _ 24 _____ SLEETY (9) ___________56.92 ____ 28.06 ( 7) _______________ 12 16 35^24*

    _ 25 _____ Jonboy ______________ 55.54 ____ 32.41 (26) ______________ 36 51 04 20

    _ 26 _____ daniel* (11) _________ 54.46 ____ 32.76 (27) ______________ 21 38*11 45 _ (a)

    _ 27 _____ dancerwithwings ___ 54.29 ____ 31.77 (23) ______________ 04 27 27 44

    _ 28 _____ summer blizzard ___ 53.45 ____ 37.53 (36) ______________ 34 35 29 16

    _ 29 _____ davehsug ___________ 53.23 ____ 36.53 (35) ______________ 18 19 51 11

    _ 30 _____ Frigid _______________ 52.59 ____ 40.55 (41) ______________ 33 02 48 28

    _ 31 _____ Wold Topper (9) ____ 52.51 ____ 24.41 ( 2) ______________ ---- 05 03 38

    _ 32 _____ noname_weather __ 52.38 ____ 35.35 (32) ______________ 25 37 44 07

    _ 33 _____ Weather 26 ________ 51.70 ____ 42.88 (44) ______________ 15 33 55 03

    _ 34 _____ summer8906 (9) ___ 50.28 ____ 33.81 (30) ______________ 44*20 40*14*

    _ 35 _____ syed2878 __________ 49.13 ____ 37.83 (37) ______________ 46 09 23 46

    _ 36 _____ Godber1 ___________ 48.39 ____ 38.15 (38) ______________ 03 54 14 48

    _ 37 _____ Stationary Front ___ 47.64 ____ 36.05 (33) ______________ 48 29 43 08

    _ 38 _____ Jeff C (10) __________ 47.61 ____ 34.79 (31) ______________ 07 28 45*42* 

    _ 39 _____ SteveB (10) ________ 42.83 ____ 45.39 (46) ______________ 42 21*42*36

    _ 40 _____ snowray ___________ 42.20 ____ 38.63 (40) ______________ 50 41 26 35

     

    _ 41 _____ Stargazer (9) _______ 41.62 ____ 29.82 (15) ______________17 47*21*51*

    _ 42 ____ DiagonalRedLine (9)_ 41.43 ____ 41.11 (42) ______________11 22 39^54*

    _ 43 _____ I Remember Atl 252 _40.57____ 47.78 (47) ______________45 42 49 09

    _ 44 _____ Stewfox (7) _________ 36.58 ____ 41.76 (43) ______________24 46*47^41^

    _ 45 _____ summer 18 _________ 36.06 ____ 44.13 (45) _____________ 35 52 38 34

    _ 46 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather(7)_31.11____ 26.93 ( 3) ______________63^31*50^33

    _ 47 _____ Norrance (7) _________27.28 ____ 37.91 (39) ____________ 40 14 57^ ----

    _ 48 _____ John88b (4) __________26.27 ____ 28.20 _________________ 39*---- ---- 23*

    _ 49 _____ Earthshine (6) _______ 25.95 ____ 29.24 _________________ 65^50*10*56^

    _ 50 _____ Coldest Winter (6) ___ 20.82 ____ 35.27 _________________ 58*49*32*----

    _ 51 _____ BlastFromThePast (6) 18.66 ____ 49.29 _________________ 38 53^53^52^

    _ 52 _____ sunny_vale (4) _______ 18.43 ____ 30.50 _________________ ---- ---- 46^29

    _ 53 _____ Let It Snow! (4) _______17.75 ____ 43.35 _________________ 53*39*---- ----

    _ 54 _____ Booferking (2) ________17.34 ____ 16.45 _________________ 51^---- ---- 39^

    _ 55 _____ Kasim Awan (2) _______16.68 ____ 37.25 _________________ 19* ---- ---- ----

    _ 56 _____ Leo97t (3) _____________15.94 ____ 33.70 _________________ 22 ---- ---- ----

    _ 57 _____ stevew (3) _____________14.14 ____ 40.63 _________________ 31 ---- ---- ----

    _ 58 _____ Durham Weather (2) __13.10 ____ 23.55 _________________ 59^44^---- ----

    _ 59 ___ WeatherEnthusiast91(2)_12.30 ____ 22.30 _________________ ---- ---- 52^37^

    _ 60 _____ Mapantz (1) ____________ 9.82 _____ 3.60 _________________ 42^ ---- ---- ----

    _ 61 _____ Pegg24 (1) ______________9.79 ____ 22.70 _________________  ---- 40^---- ----

    _ 62 _____ Polar Maritime (1) ______8.98 _____ 3.70 _________________ ---- ---- 33^ ----

    _ 63 _____ AWD (1) ________________ 8.94 _____ 5.40 _________________ 49^ ---- ---- ----

    _ 64 _____ federico (1) _____________ 8.44 _____ 4.90 _________________ ---- ---- ---- 43^

    _ 65 _____ legritter (1) ______________8.06 ____ 27.80 _________________51^---- ---- ----

    _t66 _____ Thunder Athlete (3) ____ 7.84 ____ 48.77 _________________---- 45*56^---- 

    _t66 _____ B87 (1) _________________ 7.84 _____ 7.50 __________________---- ---- 37^----

    _ 68 _____ Typhoon John (1) _______ 7.70 _____ 8.60 __________________54^---- ---- ----

    _ 69 ___ ThunderyWintryShowers (1) _7.20 ____ 8.60 __________________---- ---- 41^ ----

    _ 70 _____ Sky High (1) _____________7.11 _____14.10 _________________---- ---- ---- 47^

    _ 71 _____ Dunstable Snow (1) ____ 6.93 ____ 55.70 __________________56^---- ---- ----

    _ 72 _____ Downburst (1) __________ 6.02 ____ 36.20 _________________ 57^---- ---- ----

    _ 73 _____ Tidal Wave (1) __________ 4.93 ____ 16.90 _________________ ---- ---- ---- 49^

    _ 74 _____ sukayuonsensnow (1) __ 4.55 ____ 43.80 _________________ 60^---- ---- ----

    _ 75 _____ sundog (2) ______________ 4.31 ____ 67.75 _________________ 61*---- ---- ----

    _ 76 _____ froze were the days (1) _ 3.80 ____ 21.40 _________________ 62^---- ---- ----

    _ 77 _____ DeepSnow (1) ___________1.40 ____ 45.50 _________________ ---- 55^---- ----

    _ 78 _____ East Lancs Rain (1) ______0.40 ____ 57.50 _________________ ---- ---- 54^----

    _ 79 _____ Chilly Milly (1) ___________0.20 ____113.50 _________________---- ---- ---- 55^

    _ 80 _____ Ross A Hemphill (1) _____0.06 ____ 61.40 __________________66^---- ---- ----

    _ 81 _____Stephen W (1) ___________ 0.05 ____ 65.80 __________________67^---- ---- ----

    ======================================================================

    note: in the seasonal rankings

    * entered 2/3 months

    ^ entered 1/3 months

    =======================================================================

    Rank __ Normal (or con) ___ Points ___ Avg error (rank) ___________ Seasonal ranks

    (1.9) ___ 1991-2020 ________ 72.45 ____ 27.73 (7.2) _________________ 02 05 38 06

    (2.5) ___ 1992-2021 ________ 70.38 ____ 27.87 (7.7) _________________

    (2.9) ___ 1981-2010 ________ 69.36 ____ 28.34 (9.9) _________________

    (3.8) ___ consensus ________ 67.97 ____ 28.51 (11.8) ________________ 16 07 21 18

    I have only shown the seasonal ranks for one normal (1991-2020) and for our consensus.

    Basically the forecasters' consensus only showed relative skill in summer (ranked 21st while normal ranked 38th). 

    Otherwise our consensus did not improve on the 1991-2020 normals although following them in all three of the other seasons

    kept pace with relatively good results. 

    ____________

    (a) Daniel* had 3.7 points and an error of 8.8 mm for a May forecast that was too late for entry (4th) and the score assigned includes four days late penalty, would change ranks to 20th in both points and average error.

    oooops freeze

    November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well done everyone in this competition ,I m so happy to finish in 19th as its tricky enough unless you have the magic ball (feb 91) (blizzard) .Thank you Roger and look forward to the new year and hope a top 10 finish next round .This competition has become a passion and just love the way as a passionate weather enthusiast albeit a little rusty I can compete with the best of all you guys.. Roll on 2023 ..

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