Damien

Yes, that's where I think I got it from. It was something like that but I think it was referring to a certain number of years (with a "0" on) experience in the weather/meteorology. For the record - and I am quite open about this - my interest in meteorology direct goes back to 1997, if not earlier (but with just the general weather, etc.). Yeah, I think I put together his "I remember the winters of the 1980s" (or similar) comments with his "I remember when I was a kid.../me and my dad" etc. comments. My bad - again. But I'm sure you will agree that "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" was a silly comment - and I have I believe thoroughly(?) pulled down his comments that he has these "years of experience of/in the weather" when he calls the winters of the 1980s "normal" - not taken into account local or even global factors of why these winters were so. Of course there is the climate science (greenhouse) argument but that's another matter - albeit a very much related one. (Then again Stratos has also just earlier thrown the same argument back at me. As in the discussion with John Holmes about the accuracy of the MetO winter 2005/06 forecast a week (or so) ago, climate models do not back up the theory that the 1980s was a normal (winter) period for Britain and perhaps indeed even also the world. (Come to think maybe the local methods at the time (and remember there was no CFS or weather forums then) would have accounted, by the mid-1980s surely, the current "cold" winters as being the "average" for the time - but given long-term patterns - that we now know and new technology has now revealed (through GFS et al.), it's just not true. Not anymore, anyway.) And - for one last time and conversely as much - his comments on "the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense" "don't contribute much" to our discussions here too, right? I believe it was he who mentioned the (current) British winters/weather in general was "scum" or "acting like scum" once. That's a strong word for a sensible, rational weather and climate discussion IMHO. I'm sorry but experienced weather forecasters (compare him with, say, our great John Holmes and other "freelancers" like Metcheck's(ex-?) Martin Chuter CNS who posted on here today) don't use that kind of language, insanely illogical arguments... let alone that kind of punctuation! Even Jonathan Powell from WeatherAction (or whatever it is) can punctuate his writing properly! Thus, as long he continues to make these "baseless" assertions, use this "common" kind of language (which I say again has no place on a weather forum like this IMHO), and post vacuous arguments in the style of a "ramping newbie", I will continue to, kindly, and the admins can message me or post and correct me on this if they want, treat him as such. As you say, he has to "earn his pennies". Anyhow I hope we've all learnt something tonight! Paul or John can feel free to tell me off if they think I'm going "below the belt" as the saying goes, LOL.

W-w-where in God's name has that statement come from? No - this is based on CET records or something. Apparently, for instance, the 1940s was the warmest period of the Twentieth Century in the world in general (perhaps not surprising with all that war going on - but I digress and remove my tongue from my cheek) while Britain froze. So it's all relative. But yes the 1980s were cold by apparently meteorological global definitions. And also yet the late 1990s-2000s (present) has been quite a lot warmer again by global standards - this is surely obvious by now. Well, according to his post, his father would have had a job lifting him up on his shoulders if he had been older than 14 in 1981. (... which he should know is a colder than average (and indeed even snowier than average I think by official meteorological definitions) winter and not just that but one of the coldest (in fact the joint with (the surprisingly recent year of) 1995 with -30.somethingºC (I think) being reached for the first ever time within the UK) winters of recent times/the last twenty-five years within one of the coldest (and even to some extents snowiest) periods of the Twentieth Century that Britain had).

Just ignore him. I wasn't gonna post on this but now I've read his post.... One minute he has "over forty (I think he said?) years of experience" and now it's "when I was a little child in the 1980s". Also (and regarding the quote above) someone with that many years experience would note that the 1980s was an unusually "cold" period (at least up until 1987; unofficial (Weather online community) definitions are 1979 (the last severe winter) to 1987) as far as the British climate goes - with near-continual below average summers and winters until "global warming" "kicked in" in/circa 1987/88. So the 1980s was a fluke by British standards - and in fact I once read somewhere that the 1980s was one of the coolest overall decade of the Twentieth Century? Maybe you can help me out there? He's a charlatan. At least I'm honest about who I am and above all what I know about the weather. My posts above and throughout this thread prove it. Newbies are of course welcome but as in these last two posts incorrect assertions will be corrected and people will be pointed in the right direction. Hence the purpose of these annual "winter" threads. Sorry and hope I didn't sound too "harsh" in my posts but that's how I read the world tonight, my friends. Great pictures again Wales123098 and good luck with the course! Hope I was not "too harsh" in my advice to you.

Hope this makes sense I'm quite busy and pushed for time tonight. Yeah - and I stand by my approaches throughout this entire thread (and the last 6 years (nearly) even when I was a "learning" "newbie" like you) of scepticism, "salt", and of course and (nowadays) above all scientific and climatological approaches. Just goes to show you didn't read the post - and how we all - myself included as the (liable, *ahem* , sensible and rational poster of the chart) have taken such charts with what (*whispers*... *us adults*... *ahem*) call a due pinch of salt. Which basically means that we have all been here before, once bitten twice (if not thrice+) shy, etc.. We - myself and others - even commented/posted on the reliability and past record of these charts earlier on in the thread - I had a big and quite comprehensive post on it on/or around page 1 if I recall correctly. They are not updated yet. When they do (early September-ish perhaps? - so not too long now) we will tell you and you will be the first to know. (I'm eagerly awaiting the February chart myself... off the record.) In the meantime remember that even when they do - whatever they may show - it's only a prediction and not yet may come off. (Not to be rude - but another indication that you are a newbie and don't (yet) know much about the weather charts and the history of the weather forums is that you took the "pretty looking" ECPC chart for granted and for gospel - please don't take that the wrong way: you are of course welcome here.) Good luck on your trip to Toronto. Great photos of Wales(?) BTW too! Or patronise and annoy "elders" of "when I was not your age". Or, as I said earlier, the light from the window of a house as it reflects on the lying, un-melting, unthawing snow outside. Wales123098 - I am not here to patronise or annoy you: I am here to warn you. No one was here to warn me from 2002 onwards: I had to learn that myself. You have now literally hundreds of experienced users (some silent) who can warn you of the quagmire you have stepped into. Going abroad for snow is the right step but believe me - while you're here... watch out for the... gosh, I don't know what to say. Maybe the "bipolar existence of the weather forums" (or "rollercoaster existence of the weather forums")? But just watch out and don't take what's written, posted, or shown for gospel. Please. (And admins we need this advice or better written advice like this pinned for next winter for the inevitable influx of newbies we get who go straight into the winter of model discussion thread(s) - you know what I mean. Thank you.)

It's not likely to happen. Cold winters are a fantasy. So stop posting "daydreams" about them on weather forums and go and fight greenhouse with t-shirts, flyers, and litter collection! Yay! Also, for years-and-years now on these online weather forums people have forecast a cold (and snowy) winter: none have come to pass (though late February 2005 was *quite* snowy in certain places and the Met Office had *some* success with the winter 2005/06 forecast). Fight the power! Fight greenhouse! Go, go, go!!! (LOL @ Turnedoutniceagain (just seen your comments mate). But seriously this is why exactly we need old, failed weather forecast pinned - peer-ee-od. )

What, that "summer" was still above average!? :lol: Just goes to show how much we've been softened up over the years. :lol: Good grief. How did Britain cope in the 1980s? Oh wait - I know. "Armageddon" in the headlines, LOL. (A bit like everyday.)

It sounds a lot like/very consistent with the IRI forecast. Mind you: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mMonNorm.gif http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...7_Eur_temp.html Look at October - take your pick.

Wow, I knew it was only a matter of time until a living legend replied to one of my posts. Yes, I remember your Metcheck article about it. Do you still stand by your predictions of winter patterns/trends after this minima with increasing El Niño activity in the background of others factors like solar activity making the winters of the early 2010s being "write-offs" (dare I say) already. Good point on solar activity (in particular sunspots) but I'm not sure I agree on the prospects for this coming winter (I've got a bad feeling about 2008/09 anyway with El Niño possibly appearing, trends, etc.). Can solar science still be used to climate science/predict the weather on Earth because a lot of recent articles have pulled down this theory. As for the IRI forecast: well, it hasn't received much comments, has it? Not surprising given it's accuracy over the past two winters (called last winter mostly mild IIRC, winters 2004/05 and 2005/06 to be more "average" - certainly late winter/February 2005). Pretty much as encouraging as the performance at Wembley yesterday. (I'll get my coat.)

I said, specifically - and took great care and caution to do so - a "cold or colder than average" winter. I didn't say anything about the AO or NAO conditions. Look that the winter of 1997/98 for a famous example - the winter was a very negative NAO, yet the El Niño made it mild (as always :wub: ) in (North-)Western Europe. Staggeringly (and very frustratingly) it had very little affect on (2)North America that winter - with Canada recording record ice storms early in that year, I think I'm right? :wub: Is that good news or bad news? Forgive me I don't know much about the QBO. Don't set your standards too high if I were you: IRI: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...7_Eur_temp.html http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...7_Eur_temp.html http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...8_Eur_temp.html http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...8_Eur_temp.html If anything a drier than average winter is hinted at. ( )

It's based on May(-June?) SSTs - it's the NOAA's and ECPC's (they're the same organisation actually - just different computers AFAIK) models that update/base themselves on continuing ocean temperature movement(is that the right word?). IRI might do this as well. Speaking of which a new LRF to post later....

No - I mean next year (into the 2008/09 winter). No word on the strength on the El Niño yet. This would also fit in with higher sunspot patterns/solar activity - expected to peak in 2010 (Chuter). Not good news for the rest of the winters of the 2000s already I'm afraid. Sucks. Agreed - and it's the same with El Niño, although one sight of an El Niño - no matter how strong or weak - and your chances of a cold or colder than average British winter are already reduced significantly. 2004/05 (I think - or one of those "type" years) had/was a weak La Niña winter - and it was "less" bad as far as snowlessness in winter/s goes. :wub: And this winter's La Niña is quite weak or looks to develop that way - am I right? * It was 2003/04 - my bad.

:unsure: (On another note, it was the MetO forecast that did it.) What - is that this year or 2005? :o Is that the Alps a few weeks ago - when they had the early August snow. :o

Just scouring through the other long-range weather charts available at the moment (and eagerly awaiting the ECPC's February take). Good God @ CFS's December. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mMonNorm.gif Also an El Niño is continuing to look likely for next year - my last winter with you all. The milder Greece this winter also seems to be a recurring theme in the LRFs too.

Yeah it's bad; but at least we got some record early(?) snow in the Alps to country this argument - at least for the "new ice age" people. (Hey, they may be right at that end of all this! ) Snow is more important for me than ice anyway; especially as I'm moving to France (and not the North Pole). On a serious note though it's very serious and certainly a cause for concern. May even affect our winter this year - perhaps more than La Niña will? Bill Giles' and such predictions should come later when we have such a climate crisis IMHO fun as they all are (LRFs).

They said winter 2004/05 would be the third most negative NAO winter ever, didn't they? Well, those kind of winters are always cold; and 2004/05 (bar February)? I agree the general trends are good but anything (or even everything?) else is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Me too. 2005/06?

My God I never realised things were this bad. It's almost difficult to look at that for the first time having been used to previous years ice concentration. I've been trying to find the maps carinthian (and co.) posted a lot of last year - you know, the ones in a former thread of this name. But I can't find them. Can anyone help? (They were the ones with the line graphs on where you could select your region of the Arctic - i.e.: Kara Sea and then see a graph for that.) Cheers.

My heart almost stopped there as I thought Bill Giles was replying to one of my posts! What an honour. But, as (almost every) winter, the reality is far from such an honour. That's the first time a severe winter has been mentioned in this thread. Well, except for the earlier ECPC November chart, which we have all (except climatic newbies - no offence guys + gals) taken with the usual healthy dose of scepticism and salt. You're right and a winter milder than 1997/98 (is it possible?) is certainly a realistic threat we face every year. On one forecast alone? On one cooler summer brought about by natural variability alone? I don't think so. No offence, but you obviously don't seem to know much about climate science; not surprising from someone who writes, "The climate cannot behave like scum all the time,so sooner or later it will improve......it cannot do anything otherwise". Experienced meteorologists and enthusiasts like us don't (at least *normally*) use that word, I think you will find. 1999. (That's not at you by the way - that's at the shocking soaked "summer" that was... 1999. What a pathetic year that was to end an otherwise great century - just an off-topic note.)

Is that a warm anomaly over Greece? :o Sure is a negative NAO winter they are forecasting. Maybe the long-starved West will get lucky this time too.

Ummm... smells like February 1994. Days like that. Or a night when the light from the windows of the house reflect on the lying, settled, unmelting snow outside. Oh, memories.

Hmmm... if those FI charts come off it will be an interesting start to September to say the least. Yes, I did think twice before starting it, LOL.

Agreed - but remember he forecast a winter "comparable" to 1962/63 last year - and it was (well, obviously) wrong. :lol: Roeder does this too much so I tend to *generally* take in but ultimately ignore his forecasts.

John, my last post on this. I apologised and said you were right: although with some disagreement - and admittedly personal bias - I argue/d that the MetO winter of 2005/06 forecast, while accurate in the South and East, was way wrong for *certain* areas up North (like mine), as you rightly say. I agree you are right and said sorry. That said, there are certain figures which people such as Dawlish (now banned) have presented that proved that winter 2005/06, while partially accurate for the South-East, was in fact way out further up North, with the usual extremes in mildness being reported. I'll have to see if I can dig those charts up at some point so we can examine them. As for me constantly attacking the Met Office (not true BTW - but I have in the past (arguably unjustly) savaged the 2005/06 winter forecast): you weren't here last Friday evening when people were bashing Bill Giles in the model output discussion thread. I was the only person there who defended him (having admired his forecasts (for some, err... obvious reasons) from 2001/02 or 2002 onwards). Some attacks were *very* below the belt, and you will know what I mean. I'm not attacking anyone: just saying that I disagree with the MetO winter 2005/06 forecast total accuracy claim: and have since apologised for my earlier mild ranting. I know we don't always see eye to eye but I complemented you as a great and experienced forecaster/poster: and I respect that. It's somewhere earlier in the thread: before it got hijacked by the "anti-Bill" brigade: and I hope you saw it and I apologise again for my seeming angry, anti-MetO forecast comments. Again, sorry and let's end the discussion on winter 2005/06 once and for all and continue the discussion on winter 2007/08. Thank you.

LOL, well you opened this thread (partially entitled "Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles")! Thanks for your support... dissenter!, LOL. :lol: Sorry again if I irked anyone with my earlier comments. And no I don't know where Bill Giles is now... I asked that question earlier in the thread myself! :o Is he still with Metcheck?

(I'm gonna get in deep water with Paul B. + co. for saying this but since you asked... I'll say this only once.) Well, if you insert most of our non-MetO frequented weather websites into Archive.org, you will see why. :o Shocking (and false) predictions of cold winter after severe winter after cold winter that goes back years. Climatologically, yes. But long-term warming models still showed a milder than average winter, again if I recall correctly. And I said that my "IMBY" comments were tongue-in-cheek, LOL.

Oops, that should read "There are great fluctuations in this region - i.e.: snowlines, etc..". My bad. The line "Yes, post the pics.. That winter was phantom and you can fool for yourself with photos all you want. I didn't get my snow = no winter. Pure and simple." was tongue-in-cheek BTW; I acknowledge what the South and East got but, as John rightly says, the MetO were less correct on the long-suffering (since the mid-1990s!) North and West regions of the country. Sorry if I upset anyone, I just take this kind of thing personally, as you all know. John H. is an excellent poster, I just feel stronger than he, as an experienced ex-MetO employee does, that the MetO incorrectly called my region of the world. For the record I am not the only person refuting the Met Office winter of 2005/06 forecast. Paul Dawlish also is. @ KTom: Bye!