Damien

This is from John S2 on TWO and he has a good track record IMHO. :lol:

Have you told them about global warming yet? :lol: Ohhh... I am so evil. Looks like I have some good news for Mr. Dawlish and co.. :lol: I'll post it tomorrow (I was gonna post it tonight but found the discussion on this thread too interesting :lol: ).

Glacier point, thank you for your analysis, but I'm afraid I must disagree with you on one point: It will be interesting if it actually happens GP and it would increase my faith that advances may actually be being made in the science of LRF. I remain entirely sceptical as to whether any of this, by individuals, or by forecasting agaencies can deliver even reasonable accuracy, when talking about the weather in individual months 3 months (Jan) away. That doesn't reduce my interest in how these forecasts will pan out and my mind is open to change if their accuracy increases, over the years. It is also open to my scepticism hardening, should they be inaccurate and we get a mild winter. "Doubting Thomas", but hoping for improvements, is my present position. Paul It might interest both of you gentlemen to know that I agree with the interpretation on a certain other weather forum that the February forecast indicates not a massive mild(er) breakdown from the west but rather more of this stuff: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690220.gif http://www.climaprog.de/website1006004.jpg B) And I was just wondering has anyone e-mailed Roeder/Climaprog about this yet?

Please don't post fictional snow events. B)

*Clicks fingers.* I'm gonna enjoy this: B)

According to Wolfgang Roeder those kind of winter charts aren't gonna feel so remote anymore. That February is just mindblowing. Maybe the Saudi Met Office were onto something. B)

Ian Currie talks about December: http://icsurreyonline.icnetwork.co.uk/0100...-name_page.html So he is still expecting a "maybe dryer than average" December - no word on snowfall yet. If he is still forecasting a much drier than average winter overall then this will be a stark contrast to the Met Office's seeming "uncertainty" over precipitation in this coming season. He also says somewhere else that "These are interesting times" when talking about this unusually warm September. Read into that what you will. It will be interesting to see if the Martin Mallett monthly CET update in the next 0-15 days or so backs this up.

Crikey. Last year the MetO. NAO forecast pointed to a colder than average winter and the slightly more favoured "dynamic" model pointed to a mild one. They also said it would be very dry too. This year's forecast is entirely the other way round with a 1996/97-style winter reversed if this comes off. It also means that blocking looks set to continue well into next year, saving the BritPop II period - which will now be marked by great music, hot summers and snow in the winters (at least at some point) like the one 10 years ago. This also gives us an incite into what the MetO. presumably think of the expected El Niño - they are expecting a moderate or maybe even a moderate+ one I think, yet they can still say this far out that "there is a signal for lower temperatures" later in the period. Interestingly NOAA's model expects "the Son" to peak around January:

What snow in December 2005? What snow in winter 2005/06? What a waste of a winter in the return of BritPop years - boring and snowless. Yuk.

The forecast is for neither, with the exception of December (the N-D-J period). The forecast is for a slightly above average or close to average winter post-December, probably more the former due to the evident mildness forecast in Europe at this time. How can you back up your assertion for a "very cold February" when: 1. Most forecast models (i.e.: TWOs, the French MetO.'s, and I think they may be another) are forecasting a rather strong "mild or very mild" (I believe) signal for February?, 2. Our winters have been a lot milder of late, like the last one? However, I do agree that February along with perhaps slightly more prominently December has also shown a slight "cooling trend" over our recent winters since about 2003. An exceptionally mild February would indeed certainly break this trend, as would this rumoured "very cold" January. Even if it was just one "stand-out" cold spell like January 1987 in an otherwise mild month CET wise (which would still be possible if we had very mild south and south-westerly winds predominating for the rest of the time), it would still break the trend. Even a smaller winter 1995/96-type snow event would. A warm September and then a cold October has historically been the harbinger of a cooler than normal winter for the UK? Where do you get this evidence from? To be fair the closest evidence I have seen does not back up my assertion of "a cooler and wetter than average September + a warmer and drier than average October = a winter on the cool or colder side of average" either, but that the results are more "inconclusive" than anything else. As a small aside, I think this is also more so for September and November. Ask Kevin Bradshaw (Mr_Data) if you want the figures. Some strange conclusions but insightful as always.

***ECPC dynamic winter forecast*** If you remember a few weeks ago we were discussing the very interesting if very questionable ECPC output with that phenomenal chart showing most of the Northern Hemisphere as below normal for the coming December: complete with a nice easterly "warm (or rather in this case "warmer") patch" type set-up just above the UK in the G-I-N corridor. I've not yet seen the current ECPC "short-range" charts (which would now go into early January BTW), but I was hoping that the ECPC "dynamic" would back up their current forecast of serious cold for the NH in December. And it does... ... of sorts: These charts show a well above normal November and December (or a O-N-D and N-D-J period to be more exact) but a slightly above average or close to normal January and February (D-J-F and J-F-M period respectively). So a 2000/01-type winter possibly from that, only with January slightly cooler than December minus GW. A mild end to 2006 as a year though for most of us. A colder than average winter beginning in November for the Eastern United States... again. A small El Niño too. It should also be noted that the southern tip of Greenland is above normal... again. This is an interesting point to note as far as the Jet stream is concerned. These charts have consistently shown a mild winter for some months now, and now - at this critical moment in this critical month for winter - they are showing a more "normal" or "slightly above average" winter. Overall I would say that those charts show what is closer to a slightly over average than normal winter due to Western and even Central Europe being also slightly above average, the cold (which is in itself not that intense this year looking at those charts albeit just slightly below average for those regions nonetheless) never really leaving Eastern Europe, esp. the ancient Muscovy region. Or even 1990/91, which was also a recent (in meteorological terms) "weakly positive" NAO winter.

Yeah I've noticed this and am quite surprised by that too. And parmenides3, that NOAA/NWS statement you posted makes for pretty damn interesting reading! Most of those years quoted with the (admittedly slightly weaker anyway) exception of 2001+ were quite notable winters on both sides of the Atlantic! Interesting times ahead.

Good point - certainly an irony once the establishment started going on about global warming around the late 1980s did our winters suddenly turn a lot milder - and Communism was defeated in the Cold War and we all united like good capitalists to fight global warming/the death of the British winter. I miss snow and socialism dearly. (*Plug over.*) Yes, to our enjoyment in between December-February/(November-March?) it doesn't mean much (except to annoy us all once again, LOL); but ask yourself what it means in term of the wider global warming/climate change debate? The same goes for North America and other continents - to see some figures on these areas would be nice.

Enforcer, I agree with most of what you say, but the exceptionally cold CETs/winters of the 1890s and earlier were caused by massive amounts of floating ice in the northern North Atlantic, in our case going down towards Britain. In fact Octobers quite often brought snow to the South-East and London in those days. Comparing the modern day October/winter to such periods is ludicrous; unless, as you say, something starts to drastically change and soon. But it doesn't look likely does it - certainly not in our little part of the world. By the way, do you have any data on this for Europe, in particular the regions: -Central Europe, -Eastern Europe, -The Balkans. TY. Turnedoutniceagain - thank you for the link. Why do they do this to us? Hopefully we will get a "leak" like last year, when the Scottish newspaper reported on a MetO statement given to gas unions about the coming winter which did not correlate the "mild" dynamic August run. I was the first to spot that BTW, and what happened next?

Thanks for your reply Dawlish. Interesting. Can you quote examples? Maybe all of the many times when I've mentioned that "the NCEP forecast won't come off" or "this forecast is implausible" (as in the case of ECPC's shockingly cold output at the weekend) or "I don't trust the Martin Mallett forecast" would be a good starting point? (Actually "you tend to filter what you don't wish to see and exaggerate some things that you hope will prove that your wishes may be realised" can be said to be true when those exceptionally "red" global IRI charts were published. I pointed out in the grand scheme of things a minute cold anomaly (which was actually more just a moderately below average anomaly if anything ) over Western Kazakhstan, and said that "it could possibly bring us some easterly winds" being their a cold(/slightly cold) anomaly of some sorts over that region. That was just making the most of a bad situation to be honest with you - I will admit that.) Of course - the more easterlies the better; and this can bode well for the winter ahead. (What's that I hear you say, European-type easterlies can give us warmer weather in September? Well, yes - but we can all benefit from that: the warm-lovers, and the people who are looking out for easterly synoptics as a sign of what may be to come a little further down the line. ) Yes I would, because, as I have said before, the models are picking it up - even though it may only be the models that pick it up. However, at the end of the day, if March 1, 20?? comes and we have a had a mild winter, with the easterlies only remaining in FI, as much of last winter was, in a situation that is, as the coming winter will be if this does occur, once again mild or chilly but snowless like 2005/06 was, then we can start to ask questions about the potency of the models amid those of our future climate. As you say, "There is a big difference between a long-range gfs chart and a forecast". Your own words put the point over very well. But does that include the warmer than average September that you mention below, based on the latest runs?: (But I've got to admit that the former is historically true. The long-awaited cold and snowy spell of late February 2005 first came on the charts in about mid-January, and only came to fruition around late February of that same year.) Sorry, I meant the "Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports" thread. There's always some interesting discussion on there and it's good to have your posts and carinthian's back. Okay - but I was just saying that would you post that all the people who comment on the long-range and FI/far FI forecast models are "hopecasting" as to realistically commenting on the, albeit perhaps sometimes far-fetched and slightly unrealistic, model output? P.S.: NCEP is now showing September to be much milder too. November and December are typical "mild-cold" battles with the east and cold victorious in January but the Atlantic reclaiming it's still warm throne in February. I'll have something significant-ish on Friday, fingers crossed.

Just out of interest what's this year on course for being so far? And what's this years current CET when compared again the then-CET for September 5 2005-1999? Thanks John C. - yes, the signs are there again, but the signs are also "not there" again - ENSO in unfavourable, NAO in purportedly unfavourable, admitted warming trends in North-West Europe (coupled somewhat with NAO and colder conditions in parts of Europe like Central and South-East) are unfavourable, a point I of course made in one of my previous posts. I have however discovered the other day that that Arctic Oscillation (AO) is favourable for us this year, as it is expected to be westerly-tracking (I think), which means that colder air is more likely to be pushed down into the far North Atlantic as opposed to being lodged up in Greenland and East Siberia. So myself, Steve M. and others can add this to our lists of "positives" - because I know that some of the Metcheck forecasters rate events in the Arctic as highly crucial to what our winter may bring (albeit with questionable success IMHO - as with the January 2005 forecast).

Dawlish, with all due to respects to your previous posts, especially those in the "Arctic Ice watch" section, I can't believe I have just sat and dissected this post. It was ultimately in FI (but yes, as you say, "the edge of reality" segment of FI; I would agree with you on that) and has thus changed. Your point being... ? Yes, I was excited about such synoptics showing up on the highly-rated GFS run, even though it was only mired in deepest mid-September, as I need barely spell out the significance of such a synoptic. At the very least it shows us the blocking pattern that we have had so much this year and since February 2005 overall is somewhat still in existence at least as far as one of the major runs (if not more) is concerned. Why should I answer such an obvious question; let alone one that I have answered already? They have changed. It was in FI. Period. You will find this happens with the model runs a lot over the next 6 months (and even the previous 6 for that matter). Where did I "ramp them up dreadfully"? Where have I been "hopelessly wrong"? I never "ramped them up dreadfully" - I just pointed them out. I was never "hopelessly wrong" - we all knew that they were going to change anyway: in fact I believe I even said that they would (and if I didn't on this occasion then you should note that I normally do so and have a good record of doing so on previous occasions). What the hell is this supposed to mean? I saw "white noise"? Yeah, surrre I saw snow (in the East(?)) in mid-September, if that's what you mean. No offence, but if that's what you mean, then you have made a true mistake. Sure, I was "not seeing reality", when I posted on realistic (synoptically, even though it was in FI) runs (backed up by the current overall climatic situation of prevalent blocking out in the Atlantic, as a result of solar minima and other such factors) with realistic conditions with realistic synoptics, not to mention realistic weather, noting also - as I have a valid and viable record of doing - that such runs were likely to change in the future as they normally do, especially in FI (not to mention the rest of the run - just look at yesterday's 06Z and 12Z ensembles for comparisons; I have not yet seen today's as I have come straight into this). And I was "not seeing reality"? This has been said countless times - some by myself too - over the past 5 or 6 winters since 2001/02. I think Ian Brown maybe even mentioned it in one of the model discussion threads just recently. What is the point in saying it any further? Now, however, that we are still - to all extents and purposes and with reasonable evidence - in a period of some considerable blocking from the west (the Atlantic), to see such model output (not to mention from the GFS!) come up in mid-September, as we head towards winter, and after a period of such extreme and prolonged heat (the record heat in the months of June and July), I am sure you would agree that it was quite a notable run and was surely more than worth a mention in the model discussion thread. I'm not even gonna start on the relevance of a cooler and wetter September than average to our prospects of a colder than average winter ahead(, never mind one that's intertwined with such undeniable positive synoptics). Then I am sure that these words would apply to everyone on the model discussion thread(s), including those on other forums like TWO and UKWW. I now dare you to post your argument in one of those said threads. (Sorry about all the highlighted text, folks - this was a one-off. I hope it wasn't too bad.)

The latest from Mr. Mallett: http://www.btinternet.com/~highdown/ November is the headline, expected to be at -0.6°C below average in the latest run. September is still expected to be +5°C above average and October -10°C below average - so no change from previous years there then. That said he said that last October would return a CET of about 9.3°C (which is also about 10°C below average), and what happened at the end of the month? :blush:

UKMO vs. ECPC. Round 1! In the red corner, we have the Met Office dynamic forecast for the period November-December-January (NDJ): Methodology. And in the blue corner, we have the latest global GMS run from ECPC, covering the period November 25, 2006-December 23, 2006: Methodology.

Steve, I'm gonna post both the current MetO dynamic forecast for winter and the latest ECPC one also for December so we can compare the two, principally to look at the cold and milder regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Stick around....

Do these odds include the continuing blocking period (easily comparable to the mid-1990s IMHO - although we have not yet really had the chance to see (AGW theory permitting) the fruits of the sun's lack of labour in the wintertime); the early cooling down over the Arctic; the cooling trend of recent winters in Central and even parts of Western Europe (though I acknowledge that this can suddenly end anytime - as winter 1997/into 1998 showed). (And yes I am aware of the ENSO, warming, demographic trend, LRF, NAO, ice, and other situations. ( ))

Thanks for some interesting comments on the above guys. In the run up to I think it was either winter 2003/04 or winter 2004/05 (I forget which one) the ECPC run for Europe quite consistently showed a long cold easterly stretching from St. Petersburg to Dublin beginning in either the first week of November or December, I can't remember which one. This was there for 6 weeks before being replaced with much milder conditions when the week came into the more *reasonable* range. Needless to say I was not happy! This however is blatantly bigger - but yes we need this chart to be at the VERY least 4 weeks away before we even START to consider what it may mean: never mind 4 months! But Stratos this is a very important point: this week this forecast service (ECPC) release a "dynamic" NOAA-style LRF covering winter, probably around Friday. The last three runs have shown the winter to be significantly milder than average, and I had a feeling they would do so again - until I saw (and compared) these charts. If however - as I both fear and suspect - the *other* ECPC run (the aforementioned dynamic model) is based on other such data - such as separate (or inclusive) model runs, satellite data, human input, warming and other trends, etc. - then it will as I suspect show mild once again at this crucial stage for our winter prospects. Sorry, he's read it - and he'll probably be back anytime.

Or maybe not... here's a link to previous weeks I've just looked up: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif The general theme is that it usually warms up nearer to the time, but this has been unusually consistent for ECPC this time.

I wouldn't worry about adding 2-4 degrees... next week's run will do that. Nice to look at though. We'll have to see if the ECPC "dynamic" backs it up when it is released later this week - most likely on Friday. That's a far more important forecast for me; and the last run showed a very mild autumn/winter for indeed most of Europe IIRC.

Yes, and above average for most of the South. (Not only that but also milder air above the UK/GIN corridor is a major symptom of predominantly easterly conditions, à la the mid-1990s and more recently (and (in)famously) February-March 2005. Can you blame Andy for getting excited? (However Santa better tell him that this lovely picture only lasts 1 week though. )