Damien

John Kettley's main site, which I still go to, is: http://www.BritishWeatherServices.co.uk/ but his main-international forecast site is now: http://www.SixthSenseWeather.com/ Keep an eye on the LRF page on the latter - though the hurricane forecast has gone badly wrong for this season. Yes, I've heard that before. Maybe that's what Steve Murr meant by "my winter forecast with (Metcheck's?) Matt Hugo", which we will no doubt get soon.

We managed to "find" the forecast early last year when the forecast appeared in an article in one of the Sunday tabloids, mentioning that the Met Office had given a statement about it to a union representative. Within that same week it made the headlines; Paul Hudson talking about it on Look North news, and later apologising for its incorrectness circa late January. Last year the final winter forecast was published around the very end of November. Incidentally Metcheck have historically given their first winter thoughts around now so keep watching that site; and John Kettley's. I just have a *feeling*.... Today's NOAA long-ranger is very chaotic by the way; except for that exceptionally mild winter at the end. :lol:

A very audacious forecast! Can't wait to hear the rest of it! :lol: More than what I was asking for but still thanks. :lol: I would love to hear how this could be possible with global warming dooming future generations to furnace-like conditions, but I look forward to reading it later this week. :lol:

Yeah, give us just a *little* sneak preview. Say, of mid-November(?). (NOT late Nov. - I view that as a significant period for whatever winter we may get.) Ian, you make some good points, but I am just saying that the NOAA charts are much less reliable now than they were when they were forecasting a cold winter, or a typical "light yellow" winter in previous years - just look at some of those later charts: they are simply implausible! The ultra-mild winter charts at present are only very plausible/likely because of all the mild winters we have had since 1991, and in particular since Mr. Blair came to power.

I meant in terms of how those new longer range charts - on both the diagrams - are handling the current patterns/pressure patterns/SSTs (very important) /etc.. Look at today's August - Central England is below normal again. Just yesterday it was mild and above average. Today it is cooler again. On all those August charts over the last few days the air/sea air has been mild or very mild around the shores of the Southern British Isles. Yet the Central England area still comes out as cold (why can't this happen in the winter?). In itself, if it is now starting to struggle with the ultra-short-range temporal charts, what hope does it have with the longer-range charts, that pleasing-looking cooler September to be followed by a slightly above average October notwithstanding? The key is that the winter forecast was not struggling around the May-early June period, when the Met Office NAO forecast is made, and the SSTs were (mostly - and in this case ultimately) in favour of the cold or colder than average winter that the NOAA then forecasted. So all hope is certainly not lost. B)

Even though these charts are complete crap, I find the latest local thoughts from ECPC very encouraging, as they... well, see for yourself: August: (certainly backs up the latest thoughts from the GFS et al.) September: A nice cooler than average September for almost all of the UK. B) October: Nice and the mildest month of the three B) - if just marginally so. Compare with the last (July 21-ish) IRI update. November: (No words needed. Unlikely but at least there. ) I now want this to be right , although a mild winter may well be at the end of it, as NCEP.

Oh dear. http://www.btinternet.com/~highdown/ The worst pattern possible. Warm September followed by a cooler, wetter October. A warm August and a very wet November are also forecast interestingly though. But I still smell doom in the air for this winter.

WT...? Metcheck's Matt H. and Steve M. have a winter forecast already!? Can't wait for it!

I've got a sneak preview of the August ECPC, and it's not a pretty picture: Consistently above average temperatures from October-January; the cold once again stuck in Western Russia and the Eastern United States. We are heading for a mild winter. Those charts cry out "winter 1997/98" for the Northern Hemisphere for me. A nice El Niño *looks* to even form too. For the record, consistency: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/GSM_home_dat....con_global.gif A coldish October was originally predicted around May-June.

November is now mild. These charts are hopeless. August alone is evidence that they are significantly struggling with the current pattern. One thought that crossed my mind though was the fact that they were forecasting a quite cold winter around the May-early June period, which is of course when the Met Office make their first winter thoughts known based on the NAO. That said the latter are still going for a possibly 2000/01-type winter so all is certainly still to play for.

When was the last winter which fit this criteria?

Fancy a laugh? Go check out that August chart. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif My word. I don't know what to make of these charts. Clearly - from looking at November - they are struggling, let alone with the months August-October! That said it's also time to move abroad if some of the runs in the longer range are to be believed: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTMon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTSea.gif If ECPC backs this up later then we are in serious trouble, because we all know the Met Office dynamic charts are unlikely to shift from the light orange that has forever - even in spite of last winter's incorrect "colder than average" forecast - proved correct over the UK.

http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal...prob_public.gif http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal...20060701_temp2m Well, goodnight.

Yes, and you announced a cold winter on TWO. I don't doubt your earnestness just your zeal - please go back and relive 2001/02 day-by-day and then, although it's hard - a bit like reading about World War II in History books - consider your actions in the present. Just last year you initially forecast a period in mid-January to be about 4°C below average or something. I don't think my life will ever be fulfilled until I have experienced the repeat of 1947 that I was told I would get.

Come again? Come again?

Well, seeing as they keep nicking my charts (NCEP, IRI, ECPC, etc.). This is from the French Met Office: http://66.249.93.104/translate_c?hl=fr&amp.../language_tools (Translated above into English.) A close to average last half of 2006 with a below average August by some way (which I can't really conceive) followed by a slightly above average September and an average October (groan ) with gradual cooling into a slightly above average winter, possibly one with a weakly positive NAO looking at all those months. August and December are, notably unlike 1995, the wettest months. Feasible and encouraging IMHO.

Yes, of course. Then they *may* also be a very mild winter, like NCEP is showing. Or they *may* well be one with cold and mild periods, like LAIQ B. on TWO is forecasting. By the way someone earlier in this thread mentioned that this they thought summer *could* be a repreat of 1976 - anyone know who it was?

Okay, so there is a hot August, a cool-ish September and a clear cold November, but http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif Dammit Bliar.

16 or so inches on high hills near my house. B) Super-micro-climate. Gone by lunchtime.

Feb. 2005 for me after that. Tell me as well did that or October 30, 2000(!) deliver much for your area? Incidentally TWS makes a good point about the Scandinavian High for most of England - but this doesn't consider what my area, North Yorkshire, and Kent went through in February-March 2005, which was indeed in close proximity of last winter, and also what parts of the South-East and East reportedly (although I know it to be true - that's just a figure of speech) had in late December 2005.

I don't rate this very much, but here's ECPC's forecast developing into winter: As you can see, a very negative NAO scenario is slightly preferred. But it is every year. :unsure: Here are also the monthly thoughts for August-early November: With November almost 100% unlikely to come off like that, the above forecasts are very bad news IMHO.

That's what I was thinking anyway: kind of like last winter (2005/06). I would take the Met Office's "milder and wetter weakly positive NAO winter" anytime over 2005/06, as at least such a season can offer us the potentials of 2000/01-1990/91 (probably at the very, very best) given recent years. It's Ian Currie vs. Met Office folks. Who has done better so far this year?

Apparently Ian Currie was on TV on Channel 4 over the weekend warning of winter 2006/07 being "very dry", and that this will worsen the drought situation into 2007. He is expecting the blocking pattern of present to persist into the earlier part of next year at least. Did anyone else see this? The programme was called "30 Mins" and can it be YouTubed?

What was the earliest appearance of this last year?

Today's NCEP is largely the same but with an unusual-looking August chart for Central England. September is just slightly cooler yet overall. It's interesting to see quite a few weather forecasters agreeing on this scenario at this stage. October conversely and encouragingly is looking that little bit more milder yet today. November is still below average overall especially in Spain, but December is still very mild from the west for all of the UK in a chart looking like a typical early 2000s December chart. On the longer term, inexplicably, September is still very mild, October cold from the north-east, and November mild from the Atlantic(?).( ) December here continues to be mild but with a small cold anomaly now just starting to develop over the North Sea, though this may well be gone by tomorrow. January and February are more or less the same though there is still some quite cool/cold air just above Iceland in this chart - perhaps a February like 2001 the best case scenario at this present moment in time? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif Today's El Niño forecast shows most models agreeing on a moderate/strong El Niño for next winter, although one recent run has gone for a strong La Niña to take us into 2007, though this may well change. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTMon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTSea.gif