Damien

LOL I knew that would get a reply out of you, John! Yes, I live just south of Leeds. There are great fluctuations in this reason - i.e.: snowlines, etc.. That forecast was for a, if my memory again serves me correctly, the coldest winter since 1995/96, which we did not have - the winter of 1996/97 was colder. Those are the facts. Yes, post the pics.. That winter was phantom and you can fool for yourself with photos all you want. I didn't get my snow = no winter. Pure and simple. Furthermore, long-term climatological models don't back up the Met Office on that. Say what you want because your region was "lucky", it's all there. 2005/06 was just the latest in a long line of phantom winters. Period. That winter was also the last straw for me, on another note. Now I'm off to the Alps to get proper seasons again, like I loved when I was a child. Period.

I stopped getting excited in 2005 (only got excited in 2005 because the Met Office were forecasting a cold winter - and how wrong that was ). I would have thought someone with almost 2,000 posts would know that, no offence. Now I'm just vengeful and planning my move. Only reason I made this thread was because Bill Giles and ECPC's thoughts were, as I have said, correlating and worth reporting.

They were in the early 2000s (in some years), and the winters were all still mild, bar the odd blast (late February 2005). I'm also a huge fan of the solar cycle, the ENSO cycle, the polar cycles, the this cycle, the that cycle, etc.. The only things that make our chances *slightly* better this year are the ENSO conditions and the recent run of below average months (the cooler summer). That's it. Oh, and of course Bill Giles thoughts. B)

Yeah, the snow trimmed down a thousandfold. Bill Giles. The NOAA did *quite* well too. Agreed. I am too, though I'm betting on mild, as always.

None of these things have ever helped us in the past, though I agree ENSO conditions are currently very favourable.

Ahhh... those little charmers. They're all the "pretty colours", not the new ECPC charts... but we'll see.

It can't decide between blue and yellow. And yes, Bill Giles did also forecast this summer to be below average. We need someone to find the rest of the forecast though.

I wouldn't have done it this year if it wasn't for, as I said in the reply to Stu_London: 1. They were showing such (IMHO) remarkable consistency with what Bill Giles had said, 2. They had been poor, 3. They had not improved (which they have - they seem to have been "rebooted" over this summer). 4. I didn't need to make a post about the Bill Giles thing anyway. I can't decide if this is good or bad... probably bad. ... And your thoughts on Bill Giles? That's a pretty bold statement to make back in January. Maybe not now his summer forecast has come off good. @ Gavin. That's fascinating.

Metcheck's Martin Chuter (solar expert) also said that 2007/08 stood the highest chance of being the coldest this decade - but that was in 2002. By the way the cold in November 1993 didn't hurt our February 1994 (certainly not where I lived).

I refute that. Mid-1990s cold winters often followed hot, memorable, BritPop( ) summers. Late 1990s winters, when our charts will filled with Steps and S Club 7-type stuff, summers were often also wet damp, and dull. As were our winters back then. Personally I think late 1990s-type patterns are more relevant to our winters then 1980s patterns - though in the 2000s it really works both ways: and it doesn't take much to get a mild winter.

Wasn't it Picasso last time? To be fair those charts are quite new. The ECPC week-by-week long ranger has never had much success in the past, but there has been some restructuring at the site lately. The track record for this thus far seems very good, and I need not comment on Mr. Giles (is he still with Metcheck?).

Oops, I didn't see this before: Those links just came alive now. They show... well, make up your mind. It would be a shock if that came off. Europe is one of the coldest places in the world on that November chart.

Now, as you know I have given up on a true cold winter ever again being experienced in this country, and am currently anticipating my move to the colder climes of our near continent. But with a cool summer currently afflicting the country, I thought it best to re-examine the case for a cold winter in the British Isles in 2007/08. First off, Bill Giles. It was reported in the middle of last winter that Bill Giles, one of the British Isles' most respected forecasters, was anticipating a year that would resemble a pattern like this/of this nature: -A generally uninspiring winter 2006/07 with a couple of closing cold snaps - one of which occurred on time from memory, the other one I *think* was/may have been a miss, -A cooler and wet summer - cooler and wetter than in recent times, and shock to the system of the British Isles given recent "global warming" summers such as 2003 and 2006. I can't remember/don't know if he ever said anything for autumn. Well, I dismissed these predictions as hogwash, even though it was the great Bill Giles; my new "pessimistic" nature only anticipating my future move to Europe and not anymore "phantom" British winters like 2006/07 and the cringeworthy 2005/06. Well, here we are in mid-late summer 2007 - the cooler weather/summer having come off as predicted by Bill Giles (and I think someone else contributed to the forecast), so my interest in the prediction was peaked. But it was another forecast that really caught my 2imagination and brought this back to my attention. First of all, what did Bill Giles say for winter 2007/08? He saw, in January 2007, winter 2007/08 as being cold, and coming as a real shock to the system given recent British "greenhouse" winters. This was reported on a well known weather forum by a journalist source close to Mr. Giles and generally "in the know". But now, having seen ECPC's latest output, I thought it time to seriously consider these claims once again. I sat observing and reading ECPC's longer range output, which as you know I follow throughout the course of the year - albeit less in the winter and at the moment with my current move. But I noticed something... that was both "interesting" and "contrasting". The ECPC - which is of course an arm of the NOAA which has its own current and uninspiring "chopping and changing" winter forecast, as we all know - longer range had thoughts that were certainly very consistent with those of Britain's Mr. Giles. So, I sat there, and checked the longer range "dynamic": Uninspiring again I know, but then I decided to sit and check the perhaps more accurate new "shorter range", month-by-month model. I looked and opened the pages one by one, to see a correctly forecast cooler and wetter summer: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo1.png http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo2.png warming up again in the autumn - still no surprise to me as again I am used to this and I am soon moving: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo3.png http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo4.png (a *slightly* cooler October though (once again!) from the west indicating a north-westerly dominated wild and wet month (or at least potentially)). And then came this monster - and I was blown off my chair!: and then I remembered Bill Giles forecast. And the cool summer. And how correct this was. And put two and two together to realise and think that *maybe*, just *maybe*... there is something more to this than meets the eye. Bill Giles and the ECPC have both forecasted poor summers. The Met Office forecasted an uncertain but still likely above average one, IMMSMC. And now both the former are forecasting at least a cold start of winter. Or maybe I'm just clutching at straws for one final time as we do every year. Anyhow, if I am wrong about Mr. Giles or the Experimental Climate Prediction Center, then either of these can feel free to prompt and correct me on my observations. Thank you.

If the forecast had been for a negative NAO and cooler than average conditions over Western Europe this winter the story would be: "They are the Met Office! They know best!... Etc....". At least a cooler than average September is on the cards now in some of the charts - but again September 2005 turned out above average, costing us our winter once again. Anyhow, I'm happy at this forecast. Justifies and makes my impending move to Scandinavia/the French Alps that much better. :lol:

Really? I must have been asleep during this "event". Anyhow in around a year or two I'll be in Norway. I can put all this stuff behind me then. No longer will events in the Pacific (like a small pool of warm water off the coast of Ecuador or wherever it is) affect my remaining winters of "youth".

If Ian Currie is right (and be careful because he got last winter completely wrong at first) it will be 24 months. http://www.frostedearth.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/page9.html

A chilly but snowless Xmas by the sound of it. Like Xmas 2004. Cool. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif

Yeah sure let's all have a good laugh.

They'll go mild with something a little more seasonal (hence indicating a pattern change) in January.

It's funny this is the third *serious* forecast to suggest heavy or something on the heavier side of heavy snow/a cold period at the end of the month/the New Year period. Also, "Christmas" has a capital "C".

Yeah and the irony is it has nothing to do with the 18Z or the ensembles but some stuff I posted from ECPC - which is churning out quite frankly the best and most prolonged winter charts I/we have ever seen at the same time. Once again I apologise for this. The best advice was Stratos' advice that the above charts are experimental, therefore prone to failure, and nothing more.

No, quite the opposite, the Met Office were the first to pick it up. It came as a shock reading that forecast believe me. Sure know who to trust when a cold spell is forecast in future.

Yes - the Metcheck February-March 2005 forecast, based on NOAA, which was forecast to be milder than average. Quite right. I think every newbie should be made to sit through this and repeat it several times to themselves acknowledge this fact. I am doing my bit by sending copies of past winter forecasts to newbies who post stuff like "sounds good :lol: ". Just yesterday I did this, and I will do so again. There is no evidence of that. In fact, evidence is quite the contrary with global warming raising the temperatures making the likelihood of this winter being much milder than average, and not in fact colder. This winter is likely to be remembered for above average temperatures, as will many more of your winters in your young life. (*Puts stick away.*)

Because this historically poorly performing forecast has gone against the majority of "below average" winter forecasts that are now coming out - such as those of the Met Office and the respected (if not infallible) Wolfgang Roeder. What's there to think about? I neither said nor insinuated such crap - stop putting words into my mouth. That's very true - but there is "method to this madness" - such as some cooler conditions (albeit still slightly above average conditions) being forecast in those charts in the Eastern European "sandwich", compared to milder conditions in Western Europe and Scandinavia, indicating a rational continuation of the recent wintertime (and to some extent in the other seasons) synoptic situation. At the end of the day would you trust the above dynamic or the Met Office dynamic, with it's "white" January period anomaly for most of the UK?

Well then let's put your theory to the test. Here's the ECPC October winter forecast - a "fly in the ointment" if ever there was one: A mild December; a mild January but slightly cooler (albeit still above average) in the South-East; mostly above normal again in February, though properly mild Atlantic air to our north and south-west; an above average March also as the "coolest" month of the season - once again. Central and Eastern Europe are the coolest parts as always but a mild winter this time around for Eastern Siberia. Precipitation: Slightly drier than average on land but slightly wetter than average by sea (could be promising if we do get an easterly even on these mild winter charts though ), until March which is expected to be even very wet for parts of the far South. The Atlantic winning this winter looking by those charts. Kind of reminds me of Ian Currie's mid-February forecast from last winter.