Damien

ECPC gives us this: September: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_01-04.gif October: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_05-08.gif November: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_09-12.gif "December": http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif Global: September: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_05-08.gif October: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_05-08.gif November: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_09-12.gif "December": http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

NCEP's latest is going for a slightly cooler than average September for the UK; a cooler, easterly October for the South albeit mild and Atlantic-driven for the North; and an uncertain "battle" between West and East in November and December. January is expected to be slightly colder than average from the north and east; February is mild but with colder air never too far away out to our east. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

Talking of "positive signs in the Northern Hemisphere", this is quite interesting. It's from Ian Currie on USW:

Brickfielder, didn't the NCEP CFS forecast a similar (if not slightly more intense) warm pool in the Central-North Atlantic last year, and if I remember rightly it never materialised?

While this perfectly valid warming theory seems true for Britain, it does not necessarily hold true for the whole of Europe. Do you remember the 2002/03 winter in Europe, when the Baltic Sea froze over for the first time since about 1947? Do you remember last winter, which was very cold in Europe, and the coldest since about 1979 or something for Western Russia? What if this was to reoccur again before 2010? Would that still work against the favour of the British Isles getting another cold winter? What if there was to be another February 2005-type event or two in Britain before 2010, with only lucky areas of the UK getting snowfall as high as January 1987 (the North York Moors; Kent; ("only") the best since January 1997/October 2000 here)? Would all hope still be lost then? (You might want to dig up Stephan's great posts on TWO, because he holds this theory valid and it served him *rather* well last winter.)

Personally I hope this forecast will be right, even though I don't trust it one bit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif February is especially staggering - even though the Atlantic is still a little too close for comfort for me - in all months.

I'm not gonna be around much after the end of August, so, before the chart starts to move into the warmer seasons of 2007, take a look at this: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif :blush: Realistic? Madcap? What do you think? (Personally I don't trust them - but the August forecast has been unusually excellent from NCEP IMHO. They called cool for a long time and are continuing to do so. ))

If anything that warm Greenland (in particular) and Iceland indicates an exceptionally negative NAO winter: but sadly it's not gonna happen, as the Jet Stream is strong and over us quite potently for at least the early part of next winter. But it's only the early part of next winter - I think it was the December that was cold/colder than average just yesterday and November is slowly starting to lose its mildness - in fact that chart gives you the best example of why this (the UK being mild especially in relation to Greenland, and also Europe) is the case, even though its an LRF. If anything January is still the "mildest" month. Could - and it's the biggest could in weather online history - be a memorable January if even that (light) "yellow" chart comes off. A realistic prediction in my opinion if we ignore the GW factor. Certainly your thoughts for December and January are very similar to those of the NOAA. No thoughts on February and March (yet(?)) though?

Today's NCEP shows a much cooler August for England at least with a northerly blast now in sight; September is now slightly milder overall but October is now much cooler (once again ). Europe remains mostly below average in all months, indicating some more blocking of some sorts - I would think(?). November is still mild, as are December and January, but with the cold now equally closing in from our east in both months. A mild-cold battle, in a very negative NAO-type winter in the first chart overall? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif Exceptionally mild months for Greenland and its Icelandic neighbour overall from November onwards, backing the (at least weakly) negative NAO theory. In the longer term the cold truly does reach our South-East from Europe but mildness is still winning in the North and the West. I still hate that Atlantic exceptionally mild pool though. A new ice age begins in January over Northern Europe - that is truly one impressive cold pool!: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif A very 2004/05-type winter looking by that - and these ever-unreliable charts get ever more reliable as they get closer.

Here's a nice picture: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n..._World_temp.gif Even somewhat of an El Niño visible on those charts , or is it just me?

Sorry I only saw this now. Sadly it's exceptionally bad news and has already been posted on TWO. I'll let you look for yourself as it's getting late: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...2006/index.html They successfully saw the cooler than average August in June, but missed the unusually warm June and July by some way last spring. FWIW it does get slightly less mild at the end of the year and into January. A weakly positive NAO albeit mild winter?

I've been studying but not grebes. And it's not the worms either. You mean like thus: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif (Feb. and March) ? If this is true then it means that the "old rules" are still in play and this is indeed good news. Yes. I've got something quite important to post later tonight.

Well for those who want some easterlies at T2688 I *may* have some good news tomorrow. :lol: Thursday is the big day this week. And it's not to do with NCEP. Let's all cross our fingers. :lol:

With mild now even starting to retreat in November and January, the dream is alive!!! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif (Shame we can't trust these charts no matter what they are showing. :lol: )

Just out of interest: August: September: October: November: A wet start to December if anything else looking at the "actual temperature" chart: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...200.week_16.gif for comparison: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...200.week_16.gif so still below average overall(!?). :blush: IRI (British Columbia) update later this week. Holding my breath for this one. :lol:

Encouraging IMHO. So are the ensembles.

Today's NCEP shows easterlies *somewhat* coming back in December though the winter is still mild. August is now also slightly less cool, certainly in Ireland. In the longer term, January is now also slightly cooler from and for the East, as is February from the North and East. March is also expected to be a below average month, albeit just marginally, even though it's in far FI. Certainly a very weakly positive NAO winter ahead looking by these charts. A repeat of 2000/01? I'd take that any day! Must admit I am in the mood for winter after going to the Pennines today.

Yes, that's what Mr. Felix said when he was interviewed on talkSPORT. BBC Horizon - I think it was the "Global Dimming" episode - also confirmed this to be a fact. :lol: And Stratus, what do you think of carinthian's "Barents Sea" theory? I don't know what to think about; but it sounds similar (albeit contextually different) to the polar cell theory that let Metcheck down in 2004/05.

Interesting events today on the NCEP November chart. Very mild air being pumped up admittedly quite far north into Iceland and Greenland aside a cold or very cold Eurasia, although the British Isles and the far North-West of France are also still under this very mild air, largely. The colder than average "northerly" looking September and warmer than average October with some serious cold air building up to our far north and throughout the Arctic are also quite interesting. FWIW (as someone will no doubt mention it) the longer range shows some encouraging-looking colder air - and I mean proper "colder" air - pointing down to us from far off the East Coast of Iceland in January, now starting to reach us in February and March. More updates to come. IRI also publish their next forecast next Thursday - which I believe will be a pivotal forecast for not just this winter but for our future climate after the last one.

Please post maps of the situation in 1969 and the situation now, plus some other (preferably more recent) years of both mild and colder winters when this wasn't the case, so we can compare.

Name examples and past winters when this has happened before. I don't doubt you I just want something to compare this hypothesis too.

Then, by that logic, if last winter really was, temperature-wise, below average by somewhat (I don't think it was "colder than average" as originally forecast, but this is going along with what all those people who somehow believe that last winter was actually "cold" will say), then maybe "milder than last winter" means "slightly below average", like Metcheck.com forecast in 2004/05, as opposed below average which last winter may well have been. And Tim, if that forecast comes off then I will be one extremely unhappy man, to put it very mildly!

They are not saying "wetter than last winter", they are saying "wetter than average" overall. B) They are also saying milder than average, though they have not exclusively used the word "mild", per se. If we get a zonal/westerly-dominated winter, then the MetO forecast of a "weakly positive" NAO winter will be wrong. I think a 2000/01-type winter is most likely going by their forecast, the current climate, etc.. (If this blocking period is to deliver a substantial mid-1990s-type significant cold and snowy period, then it has to deliver it now - as in the next two winters - otherwise we are screwed, if you see what I mean.) They did. I think they used the May-early June SST period for this current forecast. Maybe they now find this a more accurate method? Hope that helps.

Or it could be my worm forecast guy. Sadly Henry has retired now so last year's worm forecast was the final one. Incidentally it went rather wrong... again.

They based the inaccurate November-January 2004/05 winter forecast on above average frequency of polar cells among other factors, such as satellite data from the NOAA. They relied heavily on the NCEP long-range data for that year too I believe. Even more embarrassing was that the period February-March 2005 was forecast to be above average. B) I remember Andrew saying somewhere that this was why they ditched the NCEP. But Metcheck is a great site and I find its 14 day forecasts very accurate and reliable. Yes - very. They did what the Met Office did in 2004/05. Who might that be then?