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Thunderstruck

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Posts posted by Thunderstruck

  1. 20 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Storm & Convective Forecast

    convmap_151016.png

    Issued 2016-10-15 10:22:26

    Valid: 15/10/2016 0600 to 16/10/2016

    CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SAT 15TH OCT 2016

    Synopsis

    Upper and colocated surface will low in the southwest approaches will drift slowly NE across southern Ireland by early Sunday. Associated cold front will lift north across the UK and Ireland during Saturday, clearing N Scotland by midnight. Shortwave trough ejecting NE ahead of upper low and associated frontal wave will bring an area of squally heavy thundery downpours NE across southern England, Midlands, E Anglia and Wales this afternoon and evening, followed by further showers towards southern and western coasts of England, Wales and EIRE overnight that could be thundery.

    ... S ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, E ENGLAND AND IRELAND ...

    Cold front lifting north brought a line of heavy rain and isoated thunder earlier this morning across far SW England, SW Wales and southern Irish Sea. Now Water Vapour imagery, 500mb relative humidity and vorticity charts indicate a marked shortwave trough moving NE towards SW England this morning - stronger lift and dry mid-level air of the shortwave is supporting an area of heavy convective rainfall with embedded isolated thunder and lightning now moving in across Cornwall and Brittany. This area of heavy rain with isolated thunder will continue NE across S England, Wales, Midlands and E England through the afternoon and evening. Strong southwesterly flow aloft and deep layer shear in the order of 30-40 knots will  be sufficient for organisation of convection/storms - with a risk of heavy rainfall leading to localised flooding and isolated strong wind gusts possible. Have issued a MARGINAL risk for localised flooding towards S England - where higher rainfall signal is indicated.

    Further heavy showers will follow this convective/thundery area of rainfall from the southwest to affect southern and western coastal areas of England, Wales and EIRE this evening and overnight, as steep lapse rates overspread southern and western areas. Some heavier showers producing isolated lightning towards coasts where warm SSTs create stronger updrafts/high cloud tops through cold air aloft. Isolated localised flooding, hail and gusty winds will be possible with these showers.

    Issued by: Nick Finnis

    OK, that has definitely changed...

  2. Not so exciting here I'm afraid. Woken by a distant rumble at about 3AM, followed by another one around 5/10 minutes later, then nothing. Was expecting so much more, but we are still under a warning with 93% humidity so there may still be a glimmer of hope

    Just looked at the radar! Is that the cold front coming through? Because if so, it's about to get rather wet here!

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