weathermadbarnsleylad

Any chance Barnsley for snow 130asl ?

Hi. First Post in here for a while. What is with the moaning on here. My giddy ant. Let's just relax and see what happens. People forget what happened just before Xmas with the downgrade of the cold and how quickly it changed. The models are very volatile this year. A lot can change in a very very short period of time. I'm wanting cold and snow like a lot in here but I'm not going to write winter off on the 3rd of Jan not a chance. To the models. And regarding ecm showing an easterly trying to set up yesterday. I have noticed over the years that the ecm can pick up a pattern at day 10 .get rid of it. Then pick it up a few days letter. It may do it this time. Regarding going forward in the hunt for cold. I reckon a few surprises could pop up at a very short time frame . Maybe 72/96hr. It's all still to play for. Have faith coldies. I certainly have.

Very light covering on cars and astro turf in back garden. Abit like ice pellets now. Started about half ll so technically a white Xmas in kendray,Barnsley. Could have been a lot better according to charts last week but that's gone now. Merry Xmas everybody. On to the next chase .

Same to you

I'm going to keep an eye on developments later next week around the 135hr mark from the icon 00z that's running now(image below) . This is a time when the south westerly makes its way north towards us . At the same time we have deep cold pool of -14/16 850hpa trying to drop south from Iceland area. I reckon in the future runs the south westerlys may not be has strong has forecast by the models. One to watch coldies. See what gfs shows on the 00z

Yes definitely this morning @Kasim Awan good luck and merry Xmas pal.

It maybe going mild and wet but I wouldn't put my house on a bbc forecast lol

Up ready for the (last chance its never going to happen why oh why always downgrades on us coldies) 00z gfs) . It can't upgrade can it ????. Ps it's Xmas eve eve everybody.

I hold the mogreps in high regard. Navgem maybe not.If they show mixed outcome then you have to wonder if we could really see a flip again. It's could become that the models take on a cold path just has it does with mild. Ps I am 100% not saying they either. But still a chance. According to mogreps I @Kasim Awanis correct in is probability of 55/45% in favour of milder outcome. still close. Big big 12z coming. Will we see a shift south again. You do wonder..

I like your positivety mate. We never no.always hope I guess.

Yes definitely 96hrs at most sounds about right. All that money invested into the models. I bet its millions of pounds/dollars and euros. Sometimes the weather just does what it wants and we have no control. To be fair that's why I'm obsessed with it. The uncertainty of what to expect. Also I think if models were 100% correct all the time. It would be boring. Roll on the gfs. You never no. Could be a surprise. We just don't no.

Icon rubbish anyway.lol. You have got to laugh. All that cold that was showing earlier in the week all comes to nothing. Never mind the chase goes on.

Let's just all take a step back. Maybe the snow for Xmas day this year has gone but 100% we don't no yet. Mother nature will decide what happens and we can't do anything about it. I for one never give up chasing that's for certain. It's in my blood. Yes I'm disappointed especially with what's been shown to us by the models. We move on. OK my thoughts are that something is going on strange this winter with the polar vortex and I reckon we could be in for something really special.

No worries

I'm ready and waiting for the icon kasim haha. R lass thinks I'm mad. She wouldn't understand lol

Hi the main model run is the black line(gfs main model) on the graphic. If you look towards the left you will see it divert upwards away from the other lines( The other lines are the main models I will say brothers or sister for easy (ensembles)that predict outcomes from the data it's got .Same has the main gfs main model run does(blackline) the outlier part means it has moved away on its own from what its brothers and sisters are saying. Its not to say its wrong but the other brothers and sisters don't go with it. Tried to explain lol. hope it helps..

Very very true

Your opinion off course but wait a few more runs mate.

All those writing this cold spell off are way to early in my eyes. They l8z has pushed the cold slightly futher south maybe not enough yet but just wait a couple more runs . maybe wait until Tuesdays 12zs runs to write it off. Looking thru the ens at 192hrs I'm still pretty confident of a decent cold/snowey spell going forward. The mean at 192 of -4/-6 is not to be sniffed at. Also some very good ones going cold mid term. Remember this is a very strange synoptic set up so early on in the winter and if most models get signals mixed they default to climate average. Ukmo is the best model in the world in my eyes and maybe/just maybe its on the write path. Take care and peace out man

What an evening. I got stuck trying to get here with all the toys on the road haha . All models are struggling especially the gfs This is how I rate the forecast predicted at 5 days out from the models . (This is whatever output is shown) take 10% off due to the current difficulties. Jma/navjem 50% Gem/icon 50% Gfs/gefs 60% Ecm 70% Ukmo 80% This is from looking at charts 5 days out and seeing which is closer Has you can see I'm most confident in the ukmo solution more but its getting very close regarding Xmas day snow/rain etc. All models should have a little respect has sometimes do correctly predict what they show. FI is 72hrs I reckon. Roll on the 18z.

Ukmo is very very good-6 moving south Xmas day. Gfs always blows up lows .many people on here will know how much it overplayed storm barra to begin. Ecm is massive this evening ukmo 144hr

Icon 12z Xmas day. I can't cope anymore .it's too close to call

Very well put.

This situation we are in is a very rare event. Throwing toys on a few different model runs doesn't do any good for anyone or our sanity. The big picture for us coldies is very very good in my eyes and I don't expect every run to be perfect from now until Xmas day. Expect more twists and turns but relax and enjoy the experience of seeing it countdown if it does. Things can be learnt by taking a step back sometimes. Plus if you can't stand the heat get out of the forum. Ha ha ha ha peace to all and all whow seek it. Roll on the ecmwf (I'm addicted)

Day 9 is l00 percent fantasy Island. Opp I give 3/4 days. Ens maybe 7 days at a push. Still not lost yet. Power to the coldies haha. I'm trying lol night all