weathermadbarnsleylad

Defo signs their mate

Once the cold is over us. It will be hard to shift and the breakdown will get pushed back. IMO.

I tell you something this as got to be the best spell of model watching for sometime. I'm so addicted to it. I'm going insane. Also abit more about my upper post. I think once the cold is over us. The output going forward will change.

OK so it's looking Thursday could be the day of some sort of trough disruption/or breakdown. Ukmo/icon and GFS show the low pushing against the block to our east at 144hr. This is all still fantasy island for me. I expect by tomorrow evening the low shown will be further south than forecast and I think we could still have - 8/-10 850hpa over us until at least the end of next weekend. NO WAY IS THAT LOW GOING STRAIGHT THRU.

It's looking like 3 or 4 day affair now then here come the lows. According to to gfs 18z.cant see been anything special yet.

Looks pretty good to me mate

Don't take every run to heart. The trend is still there so I'm OK with the ECM at day 10.yes day 10

Yes can't knock that.

Good old Barnsley in the top right corner. Cracking view from my house. Live just to the left of the barnsley. Yellow marker. Stunning view on a clear day. 30/45 mins bike on the trans pennine trail you hit Dunford bridge. Edge of the pennines Stunning absolutely stunning.

Excellent post thanks

Yes excellent post mate thanks

Couldn't be more spot on with FI 72hrs at MOST.

Can I order perb 16 from the 18z ens for breakfast please. Joking aside the ens were not great expect on perb 10 and 16 which were close to the - 16 850hpa. Hoping for better in the morning.

Getting confused so go default Atlantic driven. The mild is not certain for me at all

Hi evening all. Not great for coldies like me yet i see. Wasn't the SSW predicted to cause issues at the end of month anyway has I'm sure something was mentioned a week or so ago about N. W Europe getting alot colder then. I thinking this is what could happen now to be fair. I don't trust the gfs past say maybe 90hrs now as I'm sure this deep low is causing problems going forward also the mild in my thoughts will most likely disappear in a few more runs etc. Last night's gfs18z was the first to show something colder later on in the month. So my forecast is for an easterly/North easterly to show up in the next 3/4 days. With such a strange deep low/ssw/mjo etc the models are now hitting default Atlantic pattern as a safe bet. The colder weather is coming and I'm pretty confident. Stay safe night all.

If those 2 link. We will be in business

No point posting any 00z gfs model crap. Pretty much same as the pub run meh. Low phasing and not pushing enough east. Atlantic riding under greenland high. Uppers around - 6 at the lowest up to 200hr. Edit. I think the pub run as taking over the early morning run. Basically spot the difference up to 218hr. I'm going to sleep aaarrrrgggghhhh

I'm just thinking people on here are falling out with the models a bit regarding cold prospects going forward . When I honestly don't think the SSW as finished playing about with the models yet. I really do think a flip in the models towards cold is not far off at all. The 18z gfs show a warm up longer term(FI) Mmmm don't think so haha. Keep on chasing people it's coming.

I'm chasing it too lol

I'm thinking a large flip too.

All thoughts were for the cold to come towards the end of the month. Maybe this is just the way we are going to get there. Anything past 3/4 days is fantasy island for me. Models may look off-it for coldies but I'm positive going forward thru this weekend the charts will change for the better. I'm thinking the models are getting confused at present and the default is for the Atlantic to come thru. My thoughts are for a north easterly/easterly to set up in the last week of Jan and continue thru the first part of February. Bringing the coldest uppers of the winter Declining thru the month as the ssw effects on the pattern dies down. Maybe the second baby ssw warming may prolonge it further thru February but also could stop it. Keep the faith. Nothing next week is set in stone. But I do expect the models to change to ssw cold very soon. Roll on the 18z

I think it looks more like a rabbit or an hare lol

I think the thoughts of any cold moving east was from about end of the month. So those 2m temp anomalies go with that thought too. Maybe last into Feb too.

Nothing yet in Barnsley

Good morning all. Let's hope the new thread brings new cold hopes. Looking forward to the 00z runs.