conor123

Yup quite a surprising turn of events considering two days ago it was tracking so far south with each run I assumed it would slide through the channel.

Lets hope the weather gods are kind and the front ends up a good 60 miles or so further south :lol:

Dammit, ECM is even further north with the mild 850 temps than GFS,looks like gonna have to wait till tommorow night then for sure now when the heavy precip will be in the east

I'm still struggling to get to excited about tonight/tommorow for here just because I can see it turning to rain, 12z was another downgrading shift northwards with those mild 850's, praying now its wrong and the front ends up much further south. On the positive side The UKMO has 850hPa's below throughout and we managed heavy snow here February 13th even with uppers around 0.

Well charts pretty much identical to last night for here, looks like some heavy snow perhaps for a time tonight then turning back to rain for Friday daytime before back to snow Friday night.

I'm hoping my pessimism is wrong though im staying overly cautious, i don't think my heart can take it if I go into ramp mode now and it ends up a cold rain fest. The NAE is really quite special, here's hoping the 00z UKMO sticks to its guns and the GFS/ECM fall in line.

Thats what their saying in the model thread about the next front stalling across from Bristol to London, NAE is a snowfest so hopefully it has some reliability as its been pretty decent this year.

By the looks of things tommorow night/fridays front will swing to far north and turn to rain whilst Friday nights/Saturdays stalls further south giving them a snow fest and we then end up in the dry zone so snowfests north AND south of here whilst were all green :lol:

Yup mild uppers across all of us by Friday Morning now grrrrr so annoying

18z further northeast dragging the mild uppers across the Midlands, darn, NAE further southwest, all very confusing and frustrating.

Hmm confusing, the NAE further south west yet the GFS further east at 30hrs which will be a negative.

Well the 18z will be rolling out in half an hour, nervewracking stuff! enough shift north and it could well be curtains for us, a slight shift south and were in buisness.

Hmmmm ECM has heavy rain for us Friday, praying for those last minute southerly shifts now!

My gosh SHOCKED to see things so much further north than last night, I thought the charts would show it sliding along the channel by now :lol:! I expect it will still end up further south than currently shown which leaves us in a potentially very good position for something major!

Yeh I can't see the precipitation even reaching us given the southward corrections that always happens at this timeframe. 18z great for the south of the region but im sure the end result will see it stalling around Cardiff/Bristol across to Brighton, im hoping that we get the inevitable cold easterly out the way for next week then the high sinks ala ECM 240hrs but rather than the atlantic attacking it sticks nearby and the fronts stay out west but close enough to affect some warmer air up for the easter period.

Surprisingly a few flurries here to, literally as light as it gets but after hovering around 3c all evening a nice surprise.

Thursday/Friday downgraded to a horrid cold rain fest now, worst kind of weather. Today been somewhat frustrating, heavy downpours all around here which simply havent moved an inch leaving us in the dry gap all day but cloudy bar a brief light rain shower earlier.

Rather dry, chilly and bland this week here now, looks like were be in the dry gap yet a lot of cloud around to like tonight.

Daytime temps more around 4-7c rather than 2-3c next week ^ Snow fizzling out and moving away from here now, managed to get a dusting on many surfaces, very wet however. In terms of the short term the NAE has quite the snowfest Monday for the north of the region, hopefully this will trend south a bit!

Started to snow slightly here in Telford now to, down to 1.0c

Downpours fizzled into nothingness as they hit the Telford shield although there's a line of steady precip gearing up out west now. Raining lightly here but down to 2.2c now.

Had some pings of hail here, some monsterous downpours to the south now. ECM looks a snowfest Friday, slightly better angle than GFS.

Hmm NAE has some wintriness this evening/tonight in these showers, still 5c though and uppers of -2/-3 so perhaps the wrong side of marginal. UKMO showing potential for something wintry Monday Night/Tuesday however. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm603.gif

Very nice afternoon this is turning into, rather cool at 6.8c but long sunny spells thus far and the potential for some heavy wintry showers this evening. Edit: After I posted that slate grey skies arrived :lol:

Bit of a messy one this weekend, I suspect any wintriness will be in the form of the heavier showers as uppers aren't particularly cold. ECM very interesting though for next week, pretty much a 3 day snowfest next Fri-Sun, shame it's in FI!