Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Seasonality

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,735

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Seasonality

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

    Oh look. Mountain Shadow with the usual morning WUM. (Wind Up Merchant). I'm not sure you understand and why you are looking in the future for 'Potential', we have 3" of snow here right now, and it's still snowing. We have Thursday where it WILL snow in places. Its cold all week, beyond that, nobody knows, not you, not the models, not tinybill, why people are so fixated on what happens in 10 days time is beyond me. 

     

    Well my goaty friend, the reason is in the thread title. For the here and now people tend to use the regional threads, for the 'cold hunt' further afield they use this one. Don't let it wind you up, not worth the stress. Just enjoy the madness of the forum.

    • Like 3

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    All roads lead to cold it seems. I don't think we should be taking any notice of the charts for 2 weeks time, it changes every single run.

    True, especially about the changes every single run. The ECM in particular is very different compared to its previous run in FI, when isn't it it lately? If we stick to the 144h timeframe and less then thats the best bet, and plenty to play with too!

    • Like 5

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Seasonality

    3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Silence is Golden.

    Nice Closed Low with lots of rain at Day 10 and NOT the Snowmageddon charts 

    Next......................................

    It was only up to day 9 when you posted this. And this isn't a closed low. Guessing you're being ironic? No nastiness intended, just a bit confused

    ECM1-216.gif

    • Like 1

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, CuriousOAP said:

    Just like to make a couple of comments regarding the roller coaster ride that the last couple of months have been.  I come from an IT background of over 35 years, my observations of certainly December and January is that the the computer models are struggling to manage input data, wind speed, temperature, pressure, etc.  Data being collected and input into the meteorological super computers is changing in quite radical ways from day to day.  This is predominantly because of the conditions in the stratosphere over the polar region, the split vortex and SSW etc.

    The computer models, taking current data are having problems providing any coherent model output further than 96 hours

    The meltdown on Friday was quite probably a result of disparity of data collected and processed over the previous 2 - 3 days.

    I am of the opinion that under the present very mobile conditions, especially over the polar region any attempt to provide any sort of accurate model output beyond the 96 hour time frame is unproductive, and conversely be prepared for unexpected changes to a colder model at quite short time frames.

    GIGO

    Focussed Model Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Jackski4 said:

    As far as I'm aware it was ICON that picked up on the changes against an Easterly a day or so ago then the other models followed suite.? So potentially if ICON wants to change its mind it could be game on for this week again. 

     

    Don't mind me, I'm a complete novice just here for the ride!!

    I read your name as Jacksie first Answer is maybe, it has had a few 'wins' of that nature but hardly proved itself a true big hitter to join the big three. Call it Andy Murray compared to Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. That said, any of them could change their tune and clear the path to cold... Or not!

    • Like 1

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just an observation from imby. The GFS has been f-e-c-king appalling, ensemble suites and solutions constantly flip flopping. Just awful. ECM better but UKMO has been best this season. And didn't someone post some stats showing JMA tends to verify ahead of the goofus, behind UKMO and ECM? So can't be binned. Tl;dr version, look at UKMO for best accuracy of developments over Europe, just imho.

×
×
  • Create New...