Seasonality
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Posts posted by Seasonality
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JFF the snow depth charts for Warsaw. If I could follow that mean line and have steadily increasing snow cover from November I'd be a happy bunny. Chocolate teapot this far out, but nice to look at.
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On 19/10/2019 at 23:10, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
GISMETEO.COM: Half of Russia is covered in snow - 17 october 2019 | Climate | Новости погоды.
WWW.GISMETEO.COMThe deepest snowdrifts (up to half a meter deep) are observed in the Magadan region and Yakutia.
This pleases me immensely. Will give my northerlies some added bite!
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23 minutes ago, shaky said:
Some fantastic charts appearing from ecm and gfs!!cannot wait for these frosty cold evening in a week or 2 whilst am on my deliveroo rounds!!and also those crisp morning runs!!am so excited!!the blocking around greenland and iceland is now showing up quite frequently on the gfs!!time to take it seriously!!
Crisp morning runs are one the best parts of cooler weather imo. Hope these come to fruition @shaky
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56 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Piers Corbyn? He blocked me from his blog/website because I signed up to call him a "batty boi"
Forgot to mention, I was thinking of Nathan Rao, check him out. Utter #$%$#
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Just now, Azazel said:
Piers Corbyn? He blocked me from his blog/website because I signed up to call him a "batty boi"
HAHA! You sir deserve a medal. Here is with some sort of papier mache orange turd attached to a globe (think its meant to be the sun and a solar filament)
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Our Indian Summer continues, it has been a beautiful week for mid-October. Lots of warm sunshine. This has been a "true" Indian Summer too, as in we had a cool spell with a first frost and then a change back to warm conditions.
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12 minutes ago, Yarmy said:
I skim-read that last night. It's a multiple linear regression based on the QBO and the 10.7cm radio flux for the past 60 odd years to predict the NAO and CET. No physics, just stats, so all moot really.
Better than a Madden though
Or worse, that half-wit who writes for the Express
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@lassie23 posted a status update with a media article referencing this winter forecast. I'm posting the primary source out of interest. Just for the record! I'm not making any claims as to it's value. But it does seem on the face of it well researched. https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf
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18 minutes ago, Beanz said:
Absolutely, you must think I’m bonkers!
Hello Dolly! is set in Yonkers
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58 minutes ago, booferking said:
Something is definitely cooking for late Oct.
Careful, don't want to go with any "definites" this far out. Twill go titticus verticus if we're not careful!
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35 minutes ago, Freeze said:
To be fair he did say last ‘true’ white Christmas, which means snow actually falling not just on the ground
Mind you, I know I'd like to have plenty of lying snow in brilliant freezing sunshine on the big day rather than nothing sticking and a few flakes falling. Just my personal opinion, but an 'official' white Christmas isn't always great.
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54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
It doesn't - but all of those have a heavily displaced PV, which still requires a hell of a lot to achieve! We all know it'll probably set up it's semi-permanent home to the N/NW of the UK, like this:
That chart needs a trigger warning.
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And here is update 7!
Update 7: Slightly reduced percentage chance.
Past a third of the way there! The seventh update suggests a slightly reduced percentage chance of snow in the north and south.
The latest considerations are:
Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured.
October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued.
Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.
Chance of snow on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%
Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10
The Computer says
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands
Forecast issued 14/10/2019 07:18:35
Christmas Weather Forecast
WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COMWill it be a White Christmas in Great Britain? Discussion weather forecast regularly updated between September and December 25th.-
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Needed a new one for this year. Here's the first post that @Summer Sun put at the end of last year's thread.
QuoteUpdate 5: Slightly increased chance.
A quarter of the way there already! The fifth update makes a slight increase to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south.
The latest considerations are:
September weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have become established and there are signs of high pressure building to the north and west of the UK.
Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.
Chance of snow on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%
The Computer says
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
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On 10/10/2019 at 11:05, mountain shadow said:
With hosts Japan to qualify if the game is called off, I fully expect the game to be called off.
They probably hope that Samoa beat Ireland so that Scotland and Japan would qualify if the game was called off.
This looks a bit silly now
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7 hours ago, CreweCold said:
People keep harping on about last year but it really was just a freak. The seasonal modelling did an exceptional job of picking up the SSW that occurred late Dec/early Jan but where they failed was modelling the downwelling into the trop.
They're not even picking up on a SSW to even confuse things this year. It's a straight forward zonal flow!
A little ironic there about harping on . You could set a watch by your pronouncements of doom. Yes, last year was a one off in terms of a specific forecasting circumstance with the ssw but not a one off in terms of an lrf fail. And you know it. Of course you can say the forecast says zonal so it'll be zonal (as you yourself do a lot) but playing the odds on the UKs default climate is hardly an indication of forecasting expertise. It's predicting a 6 on a trick dice with four 6s. All due respect to Glosea, I'm referring specifically to your statement.
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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:
Good level headed post mate, unfortunately with all the information we have at our disposal these days, it becomes very easy for us to make sweeping judgements several months out! Even with all the advancements in forecasting tools, senior meteorological forecasters will still tell you that giving a forecast beyond 7 days in the UK is fraught with hazards! Yet we are still keen to write a season off based on the latest info we access. Remember summer!!! Some of us were keen to write it all of after an unsettled opening couple of weeks! Several plumes and it turned out pretty decent for a fair few! I think it was back in November last year when the met started banging the drum for much colder Conditions in December, and as we are all aware, that prediction kept being pushed back til it was further into the month.. And so fourth til we ended up in mid February, with still no favourable outcome! An early bite, followed by a bite in the middle then one at the end is what I can see happening this year! Somebody said to me on Sunday.... We won't get a bad winter this year because the summer was rubbish!! And went onto say if we get a bad winter this year, wolves will beat Man City!!! Well..... We all know how that turned out...... The twist to this story is..... Never say never... And expect the unexpected folks!!! Enjoy your days.
People are funny. WRT what someone said to you on Sunday, the first part I bolded is funny because I recall the run of colder winters from 2008-9 were accompanied by rubbish summers were they not? (maybe memory is failing me) As for the second part, well what more can I say!
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2 hours ago, V for Very Cold said:
you use a scraper..... over in the UK it's a squeegee!
Yeah, I've seen how wet it's been. Grim.
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The scraper was back in business this morning. Warming up from tomorrow though.
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Lovely snow cover in the Tatra mountains now.
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On 04/10/2019 at 20:21, Bristle boy said:
Just checked the date.......it is October 4th. Start of Winter is 8+ weeks away. If anyone thinks any single person on here OR any weather guru/scientist in the whole wide world can predict Winter weather for these islands in the N Atlantic 2+ months away then ur living in cloud cuckoo land.
Excellent point here, I've bolded the most important word of all. The fact is very, very few of us here have the qualifications to make such pronouncements. There are just a few people who do, but you'll notice they tend to be more circumspect in the way they discuss longer term prospects. The weather makes fools of the genuine experts, let alone the keen amateurs that most of us lot are.
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Mind you, for all CreweCold's usual relish in being a harbinger of mild doom, long range models in October are still not quite worth slashing your wrists about. They're not in "t!t$ on a bull" territory in terms of reliability anymore, but... Well you can fill in the gaps. They're more of a watching brief
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10 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:
The problem with this theory is that the pressure pattern at any given point in October is subject to so many thousands of interactions and influences from diverse meteorological and atmospheric conditions that it is diluted to no more than random 'noise' after a couple of weeks and can therefore no longer be said to be influential. Enough from me as this is drifting a long way off topic.
Yes exactly. And I strongly recommend that everyone on this forum with a genuine interest in how weather prediction works should read up on chaos theory and weather. That and have an understanding of the second law of thermodynamics. Two sources here to get you started. Apologies for slightly off topic mods.
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The properly seasonal weather continues. A touch on the warmer side for past few days but was absolutely soaking wet on Monday with another damp day today. All change temperature wise from tomorrow though. From Saturday there'll even be a few days of single digit maxima, not bad for first half of October and certainly an improvement on last year. Looks to be a good mushroom season too!
Or worse, that half-wit who writes for the Express
Model Output Discussion - early October
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Winter, please give autumn a go first.