[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Lol, couldn't make it up. Bitter uppers approach from the west.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Blech! Horrible 144h chart for the UK. Craig disapproves.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Charts like this first one are a real kick in the proverbials for UK cold fans. Gets better later in the run though. Real monster trough there.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Worth noting we haven't seen the ECM ensembles yet. Could be a mild outlier

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

What the hell ECM?

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

This 00z run is a work of art and a thing of perfection. Can it get any better than this. *Edit for my location to be accurate but great opportunities for the UK too.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True , I’d just like to see tonights runs to remove any doubt . I never used to be this cautious !

Just reading the NCEP extended discussion and I like the sound of it .

Pattern change to a more amplified flow. West USA amplified ridge , down stream mean trough east USA.

This supports high pressure to the ne of the UK, the jet track out of the ne USA should track ne holding back the main PV and allowing the jet cutback sw into the UK.

Well Nick, with the UK's tendency to snatch mild defeat from the jaws of cold victory then I too advocate extreme caution!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Both are great solutions . We’ve seen variations of where any high is between outputs which is normal at this stage .

If the Euro troughing holds to the se then cold remains locked in for the UK.  There is no other set up which is so overwhelmingly correlated with UK cold .

 

Oh definitely Nick! Its all positive for UK cold that much is true.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

At 144h the GFS and ECM solutions are rather different, and I know what I'd put my money on at that range. And although it has been done to death I'm convinced there is at least a grain of truth in the US shutdown affecting the accuracy of the GFS output. Very sad to see the full implementation of the FV3 has been delayed.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There may be come the day but again, the raw data is generally a high ground affair and the streamers evident on yesterday’s 12z stiff e flow are very toned down on this run 

detail remains difficult on the whole set up 

True, but a general observation, and certainly not a criticism of what you've said. It's great for UK based cold weather fans to see the cold air arriving full stop, I'm sure snow will follow (don't want to jinx it). Much easier for those of us based 1500km further east! The wait this year has been painful for UK cold lovers.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Sorry but I do think the GFS has 'gone off on one with that low pressure bomb shot all the way to the med. With ukmo for comparison. *Edit. I bet ECM will follow ukmo's lead

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

37 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

With that huge body of water directly to our west and with our prevailing S.W. flow, 'twas ever the case. It seems to be increasingly difficult to experience a cold, wintry spell in the mid Winter month of January!! And with bitter cold flowing out of Canada and the N.E.States, firing up the Jet Stream, we may have to wait until February, to get a decent shout at a cold, wintry spell. Hopefully, the Atlantic would've "calmed down", by then.

Regards,

Tom. 

I know Tom. Geography is a real *****.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Indeed, nothing has really changed if you follow the means. Last night’s 12z op was at the cold end of the spread, and yesterday’s 0z op was on the mean. 

Interesting to see where this run falls. What I note is just how damn annoying it is for UK cold weather fans. So often it's the UK stuck in its own little mild sector compared to Europe at that latitude and sometimes even the neighbouring Atlantic. 

[Weather in Poland]

Well that was a surprise. After a melt overnight there has been a very heavy little burst of snow this afternoon and we have a covering again. Variable week this week and then back to proper winter from Friday onwards.

[Model banter returns]

ECM to the UK. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some very heavy and prolonged snow showers day 11 onwards on this evenings GFS...

Pretty much anywhere but esp the east, just look at those isobars!

 

Please take some of ours, been pretty much every day for a week now. At least I'm not in the German or Austrian alps thankfully, tragic life threatening conditions there. But looking at this, some good chances for some nice, safe snow for the UK. Your turn

[Model banter returns]

14 minutes ago, jethro said:

I'm not liking the look of that, please can you tell me from which direction it's supposed to be coming from? I live in the bottom left hand side of the country, (the bit that has very little snow on that map). In 2010 down in that part of the country we had very little snow whilst the rest of the country had loads, sure it was cold but not particularly snowy, I do hope it's not going to be the same again. Can you offer any glimmer of hope that we may be included this time?

TBH Jethro I wouldn't bet on it. The low pressure system is moving into Europe and warmer air is approaching from the Atlantic. Sorry. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Parallel is a cold outlier and the ensembles have trended milder toward the end

FV3 is effectively a different model though. So it's a bit apples and oranges in a way.

[Model banter returns]

Daily Express headline to accompany this. ARMAGEDON HELL WINTER USHERS NEW ICE AGE. MILE THICK GLACIERS COVER THE NATION. -100 RECORDED IN CENTRAL LONDON

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

What a run from the FV3 para butral cold starts from next week right to the end what a run country snowed in

Looks excellent to me. I do worry a bit when I see charts like that for the UK. We have plenty of snow and sub zero temps where I am now but people are more used to it and there is more infrastructure to deal with it. Will be a bit chaotic if that comes off. But enjoy if it does. Meanwhile I'm happy with the way the current ECM is going. And a little something to whet your snow appetite too. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

This looks like a decent match to me. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Of course, it won't verify!

We are looking for trends, not only the op, but in the ensembles. As we get past D12 expect the usual bias from the op.  

Of course, whether the UK gets lucky is another question? Looking at this run substantial cold to our east and its a miss:

With improvements that severe snow and cold may get a bit nearer...

 

Hi IDO, I'm curious why you mention day 12 as being a crucial date for when model bias becomes apparent, I think it is often apparent much earlier. Penny for your thoughts on this.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Sorry, its silly FI so just for fun. But who needs high latitude blocking if you can achieve this. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Wanted to share this, thanks @Sweatyman for giving me the idea , but here is the site that generates those very useful ECM monthly forecast anomaly maps. All free too! Very interesting site with a lot of good info http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

[Model banter returns]

4 hours ago, Jemma Croton said:

Alas no. 2/3 kids went back to school today. 2/3 kids have been puking since 9pm. I’m up and down like a yo-yo dealing with puke-maggedons. Mistakenly brought one to my bed thinking it was a one off... back to school nerves kind of thing. So now my bed is trashed in puke and my mission for the night is to try and prevent them trashing their own beds with vomit when even at ages 6 & 8 they can’t seem to aim it in a sick bowl.

So no... not on the wine. Bloody wish I was though

Ohh if only this happened on a school snow day instead of first day back (trying to make it semi relevant for the thread). Woo snow... much excite/many happy. Models do cold stuff etc

The glamorous life of a parent. I've been there too with the vomiting bug Jemma. Anyway here's a classic cold gif for everyone...