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Seasonality

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Seasonality

    11 hours ago, tight isobar said:

    Andd.     .

    It's high time to fall off that now cracked summer fence!!!

     

    I can't remember tbh being quite so exited by the very early prog/early notions sliding into the vastness/madness..of our deceiptful/-sometimes -comical winter months!!

     

    A pretty basic 1 for starts.

    But my eye is taken via many factors as we slowly roll in..

    But the immediate shunt..is the northern hemisphere snow forms.

    Taking the oceanic stills and likely formats as we progress..

    The the evolving 'likely' strains on pressure squeeze into the upper/higher latts..it's certainly spiking early interest!!.

     

    In simple terms 'right NOW'..

    The extent...And cover formats will hold a high sign for us/those seeking early preference to 'perhaps' a good shape going IN!!

     

    Hi Tight Isobar, good to see you! Always enjoy reading your posts. The SAI is always a favourite at this time of year for predicting the upcoming winter. In your opinion, how reliable is it as a predictor? It certainly isn't a busted flush like the OPI but how well does it verify in terms of reliability? Any of our other experts feel free to pitch in too, I do like a good discussion about such factors! (sorry I deleted some of your post, just did so for ease of scrolling and avoiding tl;dr )

    • Like 1

    Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    I’m of the opinion yes.  Indeed I think an aggressive cool pattern for autumn is setting up......leading to stints of well below average temps for both Oct and Nov.

    Big Steve Murr makes imo a very good point though re themes of extremes either way impacting on seasonal CET.

     

    BFTP

     

    There are hints of this in the accuweather autumn forecast https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-europe-autumn-forecast/70009041

    Mind you, this statement hasn't been 100% correct for my location. "Most days in September will feature high temperatures in the low to mid-20s C (upper 60s and 70s F) in Paris, Berlin and Warsaw."

    Positive changes: What kind of lifestyle changes are or might you be making going forward to help the planet?

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    I've planted a good few trees in my garden. (I am blessed to have the luxury of a big garden) If everyone with a bit of space planted more trees it would definitely helped. Greta Thunberg pointed out recently that natural solutions are cheap and effective and need more funding. So we need proper reforestation, ending the wanton forest clearing going on in the Amazon, south east Asia, Australia etc, restoring the mangroves and so on. NB I think forestry can still be maintained as an industry if it's done sustainably, we still need wood as a resource, we just don't need to clear fell rainforests to grow palm oil to put into cheap processed food.

    • Like 3

    Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    All joking aside, at the risk of being a broken record... For the sanity of less experienced members (and some more experienced ones ). It is only September, and yes we can say as a purely factual statement that 'x model currently shows y' but worrying about whether that will verify at this range? Do your sanity a favour. Take a note of what the models say, file them away for scientific interest, wait until closer to winter and (shock horror!) even into winter itself to see what verifies and then we'll see what reality comes to pass compared to the NWP.

    Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    I see a trend where deterministic output is way out of sync with its own ensembles for few days now in medium term(GFS), almost like 10C difference against ensemble mean for my location at day 7!. I believe it may be down to atmosphere - MJO waking up  and reacting to SSW in Southern Hemisphere which is being forecast now to emerge in phase 6 with reasonable amplitude. This MJO wave may help to wake up hurricane activity in Atlantic again and that could have downstram effect on amplifying the pattern upstream,but the energy is yet to be resolved weather it will lead to more eastward energy and flatting out Azores High or amplifying it even more  

    I agree, there is an exceptional event taking place in the southern hemisphere and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out for us on the other side of the world.

    • Like 1

    Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Freeze said:

    I’m sure people thought this during previous warmer periods in the last century before it cooled down again with colder winters, saying we’ll never get colder records again is silly, it was only just over a year ago we had the coldest March and spring maximum on record on 1st March 2018

    Not to be a pedant, but the 'Beast from the East' was only a blip in an otherwise unremarkable winter for the UK. There'll be cooler winters but it'll be harder to yield significantly below average DJF CETs. I suspect there'll be more one off 'events' though, like hottest temperature ever this summer past, and the Beast of 2018.

    • Like 3

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

    Yay! That is the first chart I've posted AND publicly tried to interpret. What with that and the fact I am now under an amber snow warning ( I believe because my location is around the 'pivot' point) I am liking today lots.

    Nice one! Always daunting to do that so congrats for being brave. I still know very, very little but I like giving it a try. The 00z is lovely tbh. Just beautiful seeing the cold flood west.

    anim_pzc2.gif

    anim_jbs0.gif

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I think in those kind of weather patterns in the US there is little moderation of arctic airmasses as they push south through Canada hence the intense cold. When we get a northerly the cold uppers are moderated by the North Atlantic instead. Closest we can get to such extremes is when we get a beast from the east.

    Bang on, and the same reason why easterly and north easterly winds can be so bitter for my location because it is an uninterrupted land track from Siberia and the Russian Arctic.

    • Like 2

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    We shouldnt be surprised at the ECM-

    Dont forget the plucky ICON 00z ❄️

    Whilst minimally posting in here at the moment- Yesterday was seen as the first signpost to an Easterly- the low pressure diving south & some sort of vertical height profile in the atlantic should be all the signs we need...

    Have you picked up the towel Steve 

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