[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 120-144

Looks excellent to me... that lobe over scandy actually pushes towards the UK 120-144..

Very close to a NEly there !

Yes, when the purple headed yogurt slinger is pulled the right way then it will spit cold at the UK. Nice 144 chart. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

32 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

It's a lesser  spotted split polar vortex lama....! 

 

Count down to that spitting some cold air our way!

Just needs to be pulled the right way for long enough to spit some cold. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Aren't we all but purple headed yogurt slinger has other intentions..

Ukmo.

 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No that is really good, I think that’s a step forward.......t168 would be good to see....Summer Sun/ Gav can you help?

 

BFTP

Is 168 back? I thought the US govt shutdown had stopped it updating. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Hello UKMO 144

Yes a good one. Good cold air over Europe, vortex shifting nicely. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

9 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

For a model with a supposed westward/atlantic driven bias, it sure provides us with a lot of eye candy FI that never seems to materialise in upper resolution!

I think its that far FI on GFS is so far out it tends to show very varying solutions, so it does spit out quite a few extremes within that broad range. Check out a really spaghettified ensemble set and there is everything including the kitchen sink and a set of matching units and worktop.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Very much a split tropospheric vortex.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Para 288  A trend is developing.

 

The vortex is not a happy bunny with that high pressure right over the pole!

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

I would agree, anything after D11 is looking fluid, I would not rule out a flip to HLB as early as that. 

By T348: 

Very promising signal.

Up till then a potential northerly at D8-D10; snow for the favoured in that PM flow.

Looking like the wait is nearly over...

@IDO are you ok? Has someone hacked your account? An FI cold ramp of the 06z GFS!!!??? For sake of fun I do like the 06z. After a brief milder blip the cold re-intensifies over Europe in FI. With plenty of snow to boot. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

21 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

 

I am not shifting goal posts, I'm saying that several troughs which brought snowfall to parts of the UK, which doesn't happen very often, and they brought some cold. Perhaps it did average out to be warm, but my point is that November featured more "interesting" weather, than December.

Sorry mate. Just teasing. The ECM at day 10 actually looks OK hemispherically. Vortex not a happy chappy. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

35 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

In this age of AGW, cold in the way I described it is more like smaller very cold risks contained in a 10-20 day period, rather than a whole month. Plus the +AAM impact would have been like Nov 20 - Dec 10, not the whole of November. Cold is also a relative term, not to the climatology set long ago, but to the current climate and landscape. All IMO.

So in other words you make up a definition to fit your statement  Very 'alternative facts' Meant in the nicest way possible. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Mr Fawlty Vortex, he go crazy. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

My thoughts are that some like to say "Oh it won't snow! Teh eksperts are rong and noe nuthing!", for the simple reason that it's playing the odds. Much of the UK tends towards mild, maritime weather so statements like above are right more often than not. There's no intelligence, insight or expertise applied though, just a sort of stopped clock type prediction success but 9 out of the 12 numbers are the same. There is though real expertise in accurately and scientifically forecasting deviations from the norm. 

[Weather in Poland]

Snowing for the past couple of hours. A rare fail for the UKMO which didn't predict precipitation at all but accurate work by the Polish Met Office. I mean, knowing the size of Poland that's hardly a small chunk of precipitation as shown here on the radar. With live weather conditions. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

The shifting of the polar vortex and the resulting deep troughing into Europe looks very tasty on this ECM run. A good example of where you don't need hlb for cold. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

21 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

It would only take a bit less energy than currently predicted in the greenland area for them to link. Then there is no possible way the cold can avoid us. Happy days.

Ha, ha. Don't say that!  The UK so often seems to have some anti cold sorcery so that it will 'avoid' beyond all odds. You'll jinx it

[Weather in the Czech Republic]

Welcome to the Central Europe club mate. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

6 hours ago, Surrey said:

Well if GFS is anything to go by Europe is going to have a massive thaw mid to end of next week... Before that though more cold..

unfortunately after yesterdays upgrades short term they have all backed tracked this morning including ECM

 

EDIT: ECM keeps the colder air over EU much better slight warm up but nothing like the goofus...

Still think end of Month.. Next week we should start to see more juicy charts.. Anything before then is a bonus!

 

Lol, GFS. For my location UKMO says the temperature won't rise above 0 from now until end of its output. I know which I'd trust and that isn't just because it shows cold, even if it was the other way around I'd still trust Exeter's output. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Genuinely frustrating for UK weather fans currently. UKMO shows cold well entrenched into Central and South-East Europe and pushing into the med and as far as France at times. Meanwhile stubborn high pressure and warmer uppers continue to plague the UK apart from a brief toppling interlude. I still feel mid-month will be the time. Bucketing down with snow here at the moment. A couple of webcam shots to enjoy. 

[Weather in Poland]

Winter taking itself more seriously this year. 10-15cm expected overnight and more in outlying areas. Won't be melting any time soon either. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Yes week 3 and 4 so basically last week of jan 1st week of feb. Looks pretty good to me ? 

Sounds good to me too, but just wait for the posts saying "O noe. It carnt be proper snow in Febrary coz the sun iz too strong. It haz to be Desember!! Zomg, winter iz over"

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Model seems stuck but I imagine an epic Northerly by day 13 - with -10/12 uppers.

Has the govt shutdown in murka affected GFS FI? 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Oh hi Northern Europe. My name is polar vortex, pleased to meet you. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

@nick sussex your always hunting for us Well here’s some for you. If this run is to be believed parts of main land Europe are going to get some heavy snow.

I'm getting some very shortly, light snow this afternoon then turning heavier tomorrow morning.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding regarding the capabilities of models if you can't see the difference between forecasting low level cloud on a local scale, compared to longer term, broader patterns. They're worlds apart, and just because it's immensely difficult to accurately predict cloud cover does not mean the models or forecasters are clueless.

Sadly you're right Nick, and the professionals like you get undeserved criticism for not predicting with 100% accuracy local scale conditions. It's a fundamental lack of understanding of forecasting in general.