Seasonality

Very much so. The coldest of course being Lublin in the east.

Very cheeky of you! I see the old 'make a comparison to a cold winter of old' trick is still in vogue.

Well, yes, I'm aware of the thermal dynamics of the oceans. But to suggest they somehow 'remember' a previous state was inaccurate.

I'm not sure oceans have memories. An exception being in the excellent sci fi novel Solaris by Stanisław Lem

Ha ha! Mods, can all of these phrases and the other ones that other posters have mentioned be put in the swear filter? Some amusing replacements could be made and it would teach people to be a little more thoughtful in the way they post.

The weather continues cool for the time of year in Warsaw. Driving out of town this past weekend I also had the pleasure of fog in the countryside and noticed that the River Vistula is rising nicely after being topped up by the autumn rains. There was even a grass frost on Friday morning when the sky cleared. Classic autumn weather.

I had a reminder at work today how many people view the weather. Someone said they remembered last winter being really cold in the UK. I had to stifle a laugh. Also seeing the way how people are saying nice seasonal autumn weather is 'freezing cold.' It always makes me smile when I see people at this time of year dressed up like Sir Ranulph Fiennes making an attempt on a fastest antarctic crossing just because the temperature has nudged down a little.

Mr Pennell clearly puts much thought and effort into his forecasts. I especially like his unusual geo-engineering ideas to cool down the earth, they feel right out of a Jules Verne novel. He clearly likes cold but I feel maybe he is a pessimist and assumes mild. We all have our pre-conceptions and confirmation bias and what not and I think that his forecasts may follow the track of his assumptions. No offence to Mr Pennell, there are many who assume arctic cold and do the same thing. Hats off to him for his contribution to the forum, I always find him fascinating and I couldn't produce anything like he does. One of the most difficult factors in forecasting, and one that is frequently overlooked, is the ability to view all the data available with complete objectivity. I hope he keeps posting.

A dusting even down to lower levels in the Polish Tatras. Lovely!

I wouldn't call myself very knowledgeable, I'm nowhere near the levels of knowledge of the many seasoned experts here, just an interested amateur. Interesting charts appearing in the models now. Pop on over to the mod thread and you can see some optimism, even if they're only FI charts for now and it is only the first week of October. We can only hope!

It'll be chilly in Warsaw if that comes off! Nothing exceptional but hopefully for cold fans in the uk it signals a building cold pool in central and eastern Europe to tap into. Lovely charts.

Woah there! Pompous? I think you and Stewfox have me all wrong. I get excited at extreme weather as much as the next man. I'm referring to the thankfully few posters who go out of their way to wind up and anger other people and create a negative atmosphere. There is no denying you get some of that every year. In every community you get people who are just wrong and deliberately disruptive, that is a fact of life. I happily read the contributions of probably 99% of the members here, it is only a tiny minority who cause any issues. Chill everyone! I meant no offence. Its too early in the season to get so worked up But back on topic, hopefully this cool weather bodes well for the season ahead. Also a question, I see Accuweather has a 90 days ahead function, can anyone tell me which model creates this forecast? Or do they have their own data? It doesn't seem to be showing anything exceptional for the UK coming up. Pretty average really.

I've read the model thread in the past before taking the plunge and creating an account here. The worst posts tended to be illiterate as well as lacking in meteorological knowledge. It seems to be a playground for trolls. That said, this is a brilliant forum and there are very knowledgable posters here from whom we can learn a lot. The ignore user function is handy so you can sort the wheat from the chaff. There are so many positives to netweather they outweigh the negative of the model forum silliness in winter IMHO.

It could be the negative ions generated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_air_ionization_therapy

Good webcams to view the Polish high Tatras can be found at http://www.zol.pl This picture taken from a live feed at the time of this post shows snowfall over Kasprowy Wierch with other cams showing snowfall even to lower levels. For those not familiar with these mountains they are part of the Carpathian range and run along the Polish Slovak border.

Łazienki is particularly beautiful. Last December in Poland was as freakishly warm as it was in the UK until the end of the month. That is the difference with a continental climate, the transition to cold tends to be more stark and intense. Warsaw is particularly spectacular when the River Vistula freezes over, fingers crossed for this year.

Similar story in the Polish Tatras. I posted in another thread that even urban lowland Poland is seeing an impressive cool down this week. Warsaw is going from a min of 10C and max of 23C yesterday to min 1C and max 8C this coming Sunday. Kasprowy Wierch on the Polish side of the High Tatras at 1987m ASL will receive a good dumping this week and will have minus double digits temperatures by next Monday. At this time in the season the chances are that those pixels along the Polish Slovak border will stick.

It was an unseasonable maximum of 23C in Warsaw yesterday. This felt even more odd in that the autumn foliage is well in evidence already. The cool down for later this week will be even more pronounced now with Sunday forecast to have a minimum of 1C to a maximum of 8C. From unseasonable warmth to unseasonable cold in the space of seven days. Hopefully the start of a good cold pool for UK weather fans to tap into.

Slightly off topic but lots of comments about people getting hot too easily. I am not pointing any fingers but excessive alcohol consumption tends to increase sweating, which tends to make you feel more uncomfortable and perceive it to be hotter than it really is. In some cases the answer could be as simple as cutting back on the booze. Back firmly on topic and yes, the heating has come on briefly first thing in the morning to take the edge off.

Much of Poland is going to experience very warm weather for this time of year over the next few days. Temperatures remained in the mid to high twenties in Warsaw until the middle of the month with at least two days of 30C then cooled down to single digit minima and maxima in the teens by the 18th. Summer is having a last hurrah though with maximums of 23 on Friday and Saturday. No mean feat for this time of year. However, fast forward one week and there will be a predicted maximum of 12 and minimum of 5 in the city. The rapid variation is certainly interesting.