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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Hi @seakayaker78, not sure where you got your definition of the seasons from. There are two major definitions I'm aware of, meteorological which encompasses the calendar months Dec-Feb and therefore starts on 1 December and astronomical which starts on the solstice, Dec 21 this year. There are some old European cultural traditions too, like starting on Martinmas, 11 Nov but I could find nothing about 21 Nov. I'm curious where you got this idea from.
  2. Seasonality
    ECM 240h and cold is flooding into Europe. Very tasty.
  3. Seasonality
    Thanks @Frosty. and @bluearmy Definitely a better situation being forecast but I'll be keeping my powder dry until the mild runs start to drop out as bluearmy has alluded to.
  4. Seasonality
    Forgive me if I have this totally wrong but although there are 'good' synoptics being shown I'm not yet seeing anything amazing in terms of wintry temperatures. Am I missing something?
  5. Seasonality
    Interestingly the Baltic has low salinity compared to ocean water due to run off from the surrounding land and its shallow depth, you could actually drink the water without dehydrating yourself. Apparently it has frozen completely 20 times since 1720 and the most recent time was indeed 1987 but pack ice was reported in 2010 and 2011 saw impressive coverage too.
  6. Seasonality
    Yes you did. There has already been a lot of butthurt and tantrums! Hilarious really.
  7. Seasonality
    Hi there jvenge. They fear it because it can mean the positioning of the block means the cold air plunges into the atlantic while the uk is bathed in warm air on the 'wrong' side of the block. It is the near miss that irritates them I believe. But as some posters much more expert than I have pointed out, it isn't always a death knell for cold, particularly in December as opposed to later in winter.
  8. Seasonality
    UKMO 168? How did you get access to that?
  9. Seasonality
    Very true Ali, take a look at the surface temps in central Europe from around 198h onwards, getting nice and chilly.
  10. Seasonality
    No offence intended, but I'm surprised at a west based NAO being discussed as a certainty, not nailed on yet.
  11. Seasonality
    Have a read of the various posts on this by some of the more expert posters, it isn't a certainty and it isn't necessarily a bad thing.
  12. Seasonality
    Cheers, haven't flicked through the ensembles yet. Suspect it might all change come the 12z.
  13. Seasonality
    Not sure where you got that from, the gfs mean pressure anomaly is indicative of an area of HP stretching from Greenland to Iceland and the ECM seems to show a height anomaly directly over the UK but nothing there exactly screams west based NAO.
  14. Seasonality
    2009.
  15. Seasonality
    The charts speak for themselves but the most important part is the explanation of the temperature anomaly charts, purple is the most intense cold anomaly, followed by blue and then green. Uk remaining warm on those charts until mid december when cooler air nudges the south east, then chillier for all by 23rd.
  16. Seasonality
    Hello jvenge. That is because 850hpa temps don't always match surface conditions. Temperature inversions for example can see cold surface air pool under a lid of warmer uppers. This is often occurs under high pressure in the winter months and is referred to by some people on this forum as 'faux cold' although I hate the term myself because as far as I'm concerned if I walk outside and it is cold then it doesn't matter to me what the temperature is 1500m up, I just feel cold and thats it.
  17. Seasonality
    There we are everyone! Put the razor blades down.
  18. Seasonality
    No need for wrist slashing! We all know models have elements of uncertainty at longer ranges, indeed climate/weather itself is an inherently chaotic system, and it is often the case that when unusual weather types for the UK are predicted that the model uncertainty will increase.
  19. Seasonality
    How does the positioning of the PFJ alter the basic physics?
  20. Seasonality
    Further north in central Europe my wife tells me there has been light snow on and off all day in Warsaw. Little settling in town but 5-10cm in the countryside just to the north-east with more forecast for Friday. You should be safe up in the Tatras for a bit of the white stuff I would think.
  21. Seasonality
    I thought so too. Still an interesting hemispherical pattern and that looks like a big blob of vortex migrating east. Any suggestions on where the charts would go after day 10?
  22. Seasonality
    Or even, to be fair, when the 12z ensembles come out.
  23. Seasonality
    Got an example of that you could post?
  24. Seasonality
    Thanks, I know, and I still want to test it for accuracy! Won't be scientific but will definitely be fun.
  25. Seasonality
    Wow, this is just what I've been wanting. Is it easy to do?
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