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Everything posted by Seasonality
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UK wins prize for worst climate in Europe. Republic of Ireland tied for worst. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol what did you do in the run of colder winters then? Pretend it wasn't happening? So are you Ian Brown then? The modern winter lol -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is that a joke? -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With all due respect to Weather Co Europe that is stating the bleeding obvious. We've been talking about it for days now. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have to agree @Tamara is such a welcome presence. Her posts are intelligent and beautifully written and she brings feminine sensibility to a forum that is often full of male dominated head butting, ego driven nonsense. Please keep posting Tamara. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, seems a rather pointed retweet from them, followed by tips on how to keep warm. Suspect Meto remain quite bullish. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the energy will push over the top based on the 168 to 192 progression. Also you meant who knows not nos, which is an abbreviation for nitrous oxide. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No, they won't. And I'm not sure how strong the eruption of Popocatepetl (whose name I love by the way) is but it would have to inject particulates into the stratosphere to have a major effect. The last to do so was Mount Pinatubo back in 1991 which caused 0.5 degree C drops in global temperatures over the next two years. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Seems like it. Better ridging through the Bering strait into the Arctic squeezing that vortex back over to Siberia. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definitely a hint, lets see where it goes. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, popping over the top of the UK high and diving into the Iberian peninsula. Colder 850s in central and eastern Europe too as early as 2 December compared to 06z. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, climactic average for Warsaw and Chisinau is actually just right. Minus double digit maxima can be rather unpleasant and the sight of the River Vistula entirely frozen over is nice but I can take it or leave it. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, been a pretty good start in Warsaw too compared to last year. Had snow back in second week of September and again now for past few days (barring a pesky mild blip tomorrow). But the outlook still looking pleasantly seasonal, even if it isn't exceptional. Forecast below. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Come on, and sorry for being off topic, but that is just wrong. It still talks of it being colder than average, just doesn't mention the 's' word. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol. True about the accounts, I looked myself out of curiosity. But in seriousness I think winter seems to generate more excitement in general, not just the experts who reappear but also run of the mill members and the trolls and troublemakers. Winter it seems simply has more excitement and drama and holds our interest. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What year was that? Sounds very cold for the diesel to have reached gel point for six weeks. Apparently they do the same trick in Siberia with the fires. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Seriously man, you're a one trick pony. You need more gags other than "its going to be mild!!!!" -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Or in other words, keep calm and carry on. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Vortex being squeezed over to Siberian side in this run. Is this not the hemispheric pattern that we 'need' looking back at @nick sussex's post earlier? -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although to quote from that site, referencing the flare yesterday. "This was a relatively minor event, notable mainly because of the quiet that preceded it. NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of additional M-flares on Nov. 30th." This was an M1 so at the bottom of the linear scale for M Class flares, an M2 being twice as powerful as an M1 and so on. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, mid-December not even showing at ECM 240 stage yet and as is often stated here, the ECM 240 is often in chocolate teapot territory. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well said that man. Do you have any insight as to when the evolution back to cold will start to become apparent?