Seasonality

Gfs v Ecm at t240 from the 00z. Nothing settled yet. But Ecm has been more consistent with the evolution.

Indeed, a learning experience is offered by giving a clear and reasoned rebuttal against the obvious trolling. ECM rolling out. Where will it end up? An exciting evening of model watching to come.

Ha ha! Big knob of -16 850hpa dangling down at 336h.

I think you may be on the right track. Azores high pressure moving northwards to Iceland and cold air on the move south across the UK! Lovely FI shaping up! And cold air back into Central Europe by t300.

So we can safely set FI at t120 then. Big differences moving forward if UKMO solution verifies.

Pretty obvious what the post you're responding to is up to, like they say in internet land 'don't feed the...' 12z GFS trickling out and the cold plunge into Europe now into the reliable, and it looks like the UK is coming into play more. *edit or maybe not, will it or won't it push west!

Exactly! And deep cold and ice days should be treated as a rare bonus in Britain, not something to be expected and then get despondent about when they don't occur. A bit of realism about the British climate would make people here much less miserable.

Out of interest, what conditions are you hoping for? What do you and other members look for in terms of 'brutal cold' for the UK? I think it needs to be more a case of managing expectations. In Britain's oceanic climate, chilly spells with wintry precipitation can be classed as a win. But brutal cold in terms of what is experienced in North America and further east on the European continent is an incredibly rare thing for the little islands on the western edge of the European continent. And as other posters have said, it is a bit early to expect a cold easterly in the UK.

I don't think it works like that TBH. Back in the day the beeb weather charts didn't have the same resolution as the charts we view now and of course a good cold spell looks more smooth because it actually happened. When you're talking about a virtual, 'predicted' cold spell that doesn't actually eventuate then of course you'll have 'shortwaves' etc.

I feel the same way when I see people talking nonsense and engaging in collective wrist slashing and having ridiculous expectations of the UK weather. It is why people use that phrase.

Not seeing the vortex really cranking up. Not exactly a raging coherent blob out in GFS far FI. Where do you get that from?

You're right, I recall one or two ECM runs showing deep cold for time of year around 11 November for Warsaw and ended up still getting snow, but nothing too crazy temperature wise. However there seems to be more interrun consistency this time around so I remain quietly hopeful. Looking good for Chisinau too if it verifies.

I hope @knocker will kindly post some of his usual fascinating charts from weatherbell.

Doesn't bother me, I get the best of both worlds. (hint, check out my location). ECM staying chilly for Central Europe all the way out to 240. I expect a good run of ice days for late November and the anomaly charts paint a chilly picture for most of mainland Europe.

-16 into Central Europe at t192 and t216. Can't fault the cold pool building.

Cold incoming into Europe on the 00z and creeping into the reliable at t144. Come on ECM. T168 and -12 850hpa into Central Europe. This run is a cracker.

It is an experimental American model. Not sure if any verification stats available.

Proper cold in Central Europe on the 12z ecm. Deep cold 850s from 168h onwards leading to a maximum temperature of -4 forecast for Warsaw on yr.no Lovely cold and not even December!

The plot thickens! That forecast shows the UK getting steadily colder throughout the season, I wonder what their thinking is.

You're being ironic there I take it?

Excellent chart there @ArHu3, a very good visual illustration of model verification. I think the problem is that people tend to overreact to the output and get too emotional, objective and realistic commentary is great and those who post with positivity and excitement make the forum a great place to be but the negative knee jerk type reactions don't make for great reading for many members, myself included. There is no reason on 21 November for the panic to set in. High SAI, vortex still on the ropes, we're in uncharted territory in many ways.

I'm liking this 06z. A plunge of very frigid air for the time of year into Central and Eastern Europe next week. The cold then hangs on through the run leading to snow cover through Poland and Germany. FI, just for fun and all that but lovely to see.

I'm not sure you do understand. I can call a cat a dog but it doesn't mean I'm right. Today is not winter by any current and scientific definition.

@seakayaker78 thinks it is winter now and he/she is wrong. Simple.

You aren't making any sense now. You can't just redefine the seasons to suit your own thoughts.