Seasonality

Yes. Good continuing cold for the Central and Eastern European contingent. From 72h to 240h here as an example. Very pleased.

Couldn't agree more. People need to get a grip. What happened to the stiff upper lip?

Nightmare. You're exaggerating.

Ha ha! I'll take advantage of this lull in proceedings to be a little frivolous. I suspect it is a perverse reverse psychology at play.

Loving the longevity of cold in Central Europe on this one.

I think you're bang on about 2-3 December. Using Central Europe again as an example here are the 12z ensembles for Warsaw. Real spread come 2-3 December. But plenty of members in the snow row!

ECM having none of it. It has been pretty consistent compared to the fickle gfs.

This happened just yesterday folks. Insane 06z followed by more realistic 12z. Panic not.

Don't say that! The forum will crash.

Holding steady out to 18h!!!

If by experts we mean the met office then they are being quite bullish about it getting cool and trending colder. Apologies for off topic mods but I think this should be pointed out. Current outlook for 29 Nov to 8 December says " It will stay generally cold so frost will be fairly widespread. In the first few days of December, wet and windy conditions are likely to spread across the whole country, especially in the north. The rain may turn to sleet or snow over high ground, and possibly even to lower levels at times in the north. Temperatures are expected to be around, or perhaps a little below, normal." Then 9 Dec to 23 December "After a wet and windy start to this period, high pressure is likely to dominate from mid December, especially in the north and east... It is likely to be rather a cold period, with temperatures below average for the time of year." Seems pretty bullish to me coming from the understandably cautious meto.

As if the excitement from the model output wasn't enough we get a post from Tamara. Always a pleasure to read.

Model porn from the 06z!! Sadly I live within walking distance of work so I wouldn't be able to blame the transport system. But the chaos when snow hits London is worth it for the entertainment value alone.

GFS churning out x-rated charts on the 06z. Hope it isn't on one again like yesterday's 06z, which turned out to be a cold outlier. 12z's today will be the ones to watch. Such exciting viewing and so much better than last year. I'm one excited weather fan today.

A real battle royale between the two heavyweights of the NWP world. Who will come out on top with the title belt for the latest bout? ECM and GFS still chalk and cheese.

I love cold as much as the next man, I really do. But we need to be careful of confirmation bias when dismissing the ECM. Question for the posters more expert than I... If there is a climb down from either ECM or GFS, when should we expect this?

Good Morning @knocker Thank you as usual for these charts. A good illustration of why nothing is certain quite yet. Do you happen to have any t2m charts for the same period that you can post please?

Still divergence between the ECM and the GFS. Here at 192h. Leading to a very different outcome for the UK in terms of uppers and resultant surface conditions. Until the big two show more consistency caution is needed.

I would say definitively that it is an expression being used incorrectly. Kind of like when people talk about F1 instead of FI It doubles its powers of annoyance when used in conjunction with one of those horrible cliches, like 'bite of the cherry.'

Just for fun. A snowy Europe!

Has to be said. Need to temper the excitement to avoid disappointment. If some consistency emerges then maybe the champagne can be put on ice but there is a long way to go yet.

Yes, with such disagreement between models and between runs, nothing is set in stone.

Forget the pub run, the 06z has been out all night and still going strong.

Yes there is, maybe @knocker will be kind enough to post it for us

Apart from yr.no does anyone know of any websites that use ECM output to generate their weather forecasts? If I recall correctly the Norwegian site uses pretty much just the ECM output.