Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Seasonality

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,735

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Well from my limited understanding of NWP, I'm under the impression the models start with real time weather data reported from a particular timeframe which then 'model' where the weather could evolve from that particular point using various complex algorithms etc. So does that mean something must have been different in the data used to generate the overnight runs? I wonder what the fly in the ointment was?
  2. Seasonality
    Just to clarify Nick, where is it moving to that is different from yesterday's runs? Or is it that the movement is the same and the movement is causing the run to run volatility in the op output. Would be grateful for your insight.
  3. Seasonality
    Yes, but I believe it became a bit of an in joke to call it a Stella run. The amusing misspelling was then turned into a riff on the 'pub run' as in Stella Artois
  4. Seasonality
    I've noticed this too. Which makes the schadenfreude laden doom monger types who emerge from their burrows each morning look even more ridiculous imo. Still varying outcomes being shown, run to run and inter model differences. And not quite December yet, so to use an old cliche, more runs needed.
  5. Seasonality
    Cold pushing west.
  6. Seasonality
    Different solution again from ECM this morning. More n/s orientation of high pressure cell with vortex now touching central Europe.
  7. Seasonality
    ECM and UKMO at 96h.
  8. Seasonality
    Are the building blocks present? Will we be given another bite of the cherry?
  9. Seasonality
    All silliness aside, it'll be good to see the fax charts issued following this output. Will they go with the raw output I wonder?
  10. Seasonality
    Yes, we shall grovel and apologise to you and bow down to you and worship you as our weather god with the power to to foresee all outcomes.
  11. Seasonality
    Lol! He'll be able to tell you exactly what time, and how many mm of snow in your garden with the kind of certainty he has.
  12. Seasonality
    Come on now, you know enough to know that statement is completely wrong. You can't state with certainty what will happen in FI with such model divergence at the moment. Stop being silly.
  13. Seasonality
    Very nice, vortex almost split with no sign of the coherent circle of doom! Looks like two hemispheres of a brain.
  14. Seasonality
    Yes, the cheeky little green tennis ball sitting next to @knocker. Just look at the difference in the depth of cold over central and eastern Europe from 06z to 12z.
  15. Seasonality
    It seems so, and a closed low over Belarus and the Baltics at 150h that wasn't there on the previous run. Block putting up more resistance.
  16. Seasonality
    Oh feck! Not wearing my glasses! Will edit post for accuracy.
  17. Seasonality
    Not even a true Bartlett in FI at that. A true Bartlett is a persistent area of high pressure over Europe as opposed to something more transient. By end of FI in latest GFS we don't have a Bartlett! Look at the trough over East, South East and Central Europe. Now the second chart is a true Bartlett from the mild winter of foulness of 88/89, high pressure centred on and covering most of Europe..
  18. Seasonality
    Not sure, maybe someone else can answer?
  19. Seasonality
    They have already
  20. Seasonality
    Fits with what Matt Hugo was saying.
  21. Seasonality
    Good illustration of how the Alps pop up into the milder upper air and therefore have positive anomalies.
  22. Seasonality
    Did you read Matt's post. Have bolded relevant sections for you. "Ignoring the MSLP isobars, for now, note the signal for higher than average pressure anoms to the north of the UK on the below chart for week 4, this is, essentially the EC monthly for 19th to the 25th Dec with also a signal for -ve MSLP anoms over Iberia which, in theory, would equate to a potential E or NE'ly flow."
  23. Seasonality
    Not much of one if his analysis is anything to go by.
  24. Seasonality
    Agreed, maybe I should have elaborated more. The tweet posted by Summer Sun was written by someone who hasn't really got a good grasp of what is going on, especially compared to the experts.
  25. Seasonality
    Nope, he is just posting a tweet referencing current ECM output and stating that it goes against other output. I wouldn't be too concerned about one bloke tweeting compared to the power of the EC monthly and the meto. I'd suggest that much worse goes on in here, @Summer Sun isn't doing anything disruptive.
×
×
  • Create New...