Seasonality

That said though, just saw the ECM ensemble for the 00Z. Some support for a very chilly Saturday morning.

Cheers BA, have been viewing that one with interest already. Nice little tool isn't it? Will need to do some testing for accuracy this year but accurate measure of snow cover can be difficult.

3 hours ago, IDO said: The NH pattern remains mobile Well said Catacol, although I'd point out that the post you're responding to is in internet parlance, something you shouldn't feed.

Quite a chilly regime forecast for the next week with some snowfall incoming. Looking at yr.no they have forecast lows down to -11 on Saturday morning but I'm taking this with a pinch of salt, bit overcooked looking at the charts.

Current forecast indicates the snow cover will push west into Poland tomorrow. In London at the moment but will check webcams and report back to the forum.

Speaking of CFS, some chilly charts being churned out for mid December. Here is an example, just for fun of course.

Nice to see warmer uppers into Cornwall to keep @knocker happy

Hello mods, I hope you're ready for the silly season. In the past whilst lurking on this forum I noticed an informal model thread for silly/fun/ramping posts. Will it be started again for this season?

Am I right in saying that traditionally the best winters in the Netherlands were the ones where you could skate on the canals?

My typo, I stand corrected! Have edited my original post.

Yes, and note the hints at the mild mainly affecting the West and Northwest!

Bang on. Which is why you should take any attempts to talk down an ECM outcome using GFS means as an argument with a pinch of salt! ECM is still the king of models, throw in UKMO and JMA and you have a good suite to make decent forecasts on.

Check out the cold over Europe in the 0z ECM!

Come now Knocker, that shows 0 degrees anomaly for most of the UK and you know it unless you mean the warm glow of the North Sea

Not forgetting that 2014-15 was also notably sunny in England.

In their defence they predicted the extreme cold of December 2010 very well using less advanced modelling than available now. For all the bashing of the Meto that people like to indulge in they still do an excellent job and have the most trustworthy longer term forecasts in recent years imo. Sorry mods for off topic.

I'm sorry, but he just comes across as mad as a box of frogs. Anyone who flatly denies any anthropogenic contribution to climate change sits firmly in David Icke the Queen is a lizard tin foil hat territory.

In the words of George Takei. Oh my!

Central Europe doesn't become warm. The EC update shows temperatures below average for the first two weeks of November and then no clear signal thereafter. Have posted a map of central Europe as I find many people confuse it with eastern Europe and south east Europe.

I take it you refer to Fergie's comments in the SW regional thread in answer to being questioned on when the Atlantic will break through in the foreseeable? Here it is for clarity. 9 hours ago, fergieweather said: It may not (in any pronounced sense)... a very different probabilistic look to the coming weeks ahead ;-)

However, signal for lower temperatures on the ground then returns on ECMWF 46. Interesting times.

You mean this one? In answer to being questioned if the atlantic will break through in the foreseeable? Don't be a tease!

Interesting. This definitely fits with my own thoughts for central and eastern Europe and it is good news for UK too if you read between the lines. Cold air to the east will give teeth to the beast folks.

Interesting weather on Saturday in Warsaw. A heavy downpour turned quickly to hail that actually gave a white covering on the ground and was accompanied by a few flashes of lightning. It was quite localised though it seems as areas 20 km to the North-East of the city barely had a drop of rain. Meanwhile the forecast is cooling nicely with sleet currently predicted for Friday night and a small tweak in the synoptics with five days still to go could mean the first snow of the season (or alternatively just cold rain).

Oh you tease BFTP. Coming from you though I'm inclined to believe it.