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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Thank you @MattHugo. You are a gentleman and a scholar. So fear not model watchers! Looks like we are seeing developments well outside the publicly viewable current ECM output and right on the cusp of GFS output so interesting times ahead.
  2. Seasonality
    Well said!
  3. Seasonality
    Lovely cool bright weather and people are still bitching and moaning. You'd need to have a climate like Oymyakon to keep some people happy in here.
  4. Seasonality
    But not the same depth of cold to the east on the 12z.
  5. Seasonality
    @knocker is definitely someone I pay attention to when it comes to model analysis, even if he is a bit cheeky at times, all in good fun.
  6. Seasonality
    Well yes @knocker but I was referring to the 384h for 14 Dec chart in isolation, not the average of the preceding six days. That is very naughty of you. As you can see, very chilly through Western Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Baltics etc into Eastern Poland for the period I was referring to. I shall have to steal Sidney's nuts if you continue to carry on so. Maybe we should agree on a working definition of deep cold?
  7. Seasonality
    Which is here https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/28/winter-outlook-for-december-2016-to-february-2017/ Good read too.
  8. Seasonality
    I would have to agree. This was illustrated well by the 00z GFS ensembles for Warsaw where the op was a cold outlier in terms of surface temps against the suite with clear divergence from around 8 December. It will be interesting looking at the ensembles for European capitals from the 06z to analyse the likelihood of the cold marching east. As it stands, the current run shows deep cold over Eastern and Central Europe out in the la la land reaches of FI.
  9. Seasonality
    You want to be careful not to jinx it with a username like yours
  10. Seasonality
    ECM has switched to cold.
  11. Seasonality
    Is the new ecm back to its old over amplification tricks
  12. Seasonality
    ECM trying to go from zero to hero for the uk in this run.
  13. Seasonality
    So you're Ian Brown then? The modern winter?
  14. Seasonality
    Pot. Kettle.
  15. Seasonality
    You mean like this nice cool air I'll be enjoying next weekend?
  16. Seasonality
    Sydney should be a red squirrel. Not an American import.
  17. Seasonality
    Lol. Chasing FI again o_O Meanwhile in Poland. Snow as soon as Sunday night and then through next week. Not to mention the bit earlier in November.
  18. Seasonality
  19. Seasonality
    Flat as a witch's tit?
  20. Seasonality
    I see what you did there! (lose)
  21. Seasonality
    Mild winter for a change? Where the hell have you been for the last few years? Not the UK I take it.
  22. Seasonality
    This is how I feel when a cold spell is forecast and then actually arrives.
  23. Seasonality
    Ha ha. You mean wailing. This is whaling. The atrocious spelling and grammar are part of the entertainment on the model thread.
  24. Seasonality
    Luckily there are a good three months left for it
  25. Seasonality
    What is it that you want/expect? A horrendous situation like last December? Or terrible flooding?
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