Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Seasonality

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,735

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    The only way you can get led up the garden path is if you see a forecast as a certainty.
  2. Seasonality
    @Tamara I could kiss you for that post ^^^^^ Not only written in your usual elegant style with all kinds of erudite meteorological tidbits but a razor sharp critique of the forum 'madness' so typical of this time of year.
  3. Seasonality
    Happy ending coming up on the 06z
  4. Seasonality
    Me too. I think people are automatically seeing the worst.
  5. Seasonality
    Thanks @bobbydog and @Ali1977. Got it.
  6. Seasonality
    Definitely not a blowtorch Sou-Wester though.
  7. Seasonality
    Have you got a link to that run @bobbydog Struggling to find it on meteociel
  8. Seasonality
    For those not in the know, this refers to Shannon entropy, named after the mathematician Claude Shannon who developed the concept in information theory. Entropy can be defined as the degree of disorder or randomness in a system. In the context of the model outputs, when Shannon entropy increases this means that there will be a greater variation of outcomes, greater volatility in the output. Lower Shannon entropy means more consistent output. So higher entropy explains the swings we're seeing.
  9. Seasonality
    And to think there has been moaning from some quarters about a 'raging vortex.' Looks like it has exploded with rage more like it. Nice arctic high too. Another change in the models and mid month is barely within the semi-reliable time frame. Looks like a colder December could still be on the cards.
  10. Seasonality
    Here it is!
  11. Seasonality
    Almost there for Xmas @Mucka. See my post above.
  12. Seasonality
    A little pre-xmas treat from the 00z. A snow event in xmas week. Whats not to like?
  13. Seasonality
    How about insane cold like Yakutsk? City of almost 200,000 people and average daily high temperature of -35°C in January.
  14. Seasonality
    Looking a bit different on this run.
  15. Seasonality
    While the 12z rolls out, Happy Christmas from the CFS!!
  16. Seasonality
    Sponsored by netweather.tv Poor old Michael having to grin around that prize prat.
  17. Seasonality
    Thanks @Catacol. @Steve Murr the sentence in bold is what I was referring to in my earlier post.
  18. Seasonality
    @Steve Murr haven't quoted your post to avoid excessive page scrolling. You've obviously put a lot of time and thought into this. You seem to be suggesting zonal winds are in themselves a sort of magic bullet for forecasting winter weather. Can it really be as simple as this?
  19. Seasonality
    Thats 'The Modern Winter' for anyone who was wondering
  20. Seasonality
    Understood but as you say, even milder winters have colder interludes for the far north. UK has definitely had milder winters the last three years compared to climatological norms though.
  21. Seasonality
    So then you know the last 3 years have been mild winters?
  22. Seasonality
    For amusement, the GFS para shifts a monster blob of vortex over Scandi.
  23. Seasonality
    Moon cycles lol. Is that you Piers Corbyn?
  24. Seasonality
    Except the later output isn't showing a Euro slug at all. I'm hoping that it verifies so all of these armchair critics who keep rubbishing the professionals who put so much hard work into their forecasts will be quiet. Then we'll see which face has egg on it.
  25. Seasonality
    His reputation on the line? Really? He has access to much more than we do and a much better grasp of the myriad drivers behind the weather. Even the best forecaster cannot guarantee an outcome 100%.
×
×
  • Create New...