The Weather Dragon
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I've seen enough of the output at +72 to even know that this outlook is far from settled.
12'>http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-96.png?12
We have a lobe of PV to the SW of Greenland and a lobe moving into N Scandinavia. Now in my opinion the models are going to struggle which has the greater impact on our weather pattern. The key question is how much energy E will the lobe of PV over SW Greenland send across the Atlantic. Are the models overdoing this?
Im expecting even the UKMO/ECM to struggle and I wouldn't be surprised if tonights ECM is much better than the 0Z.
Have you seen the predicted temps though.
Eye - I wouldn't trust those predicted temps they are always a good 2/3 c overcooked for our area. Met had us for 2 today - didn't get above 0 here
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All this heavy snow and no accumulation - what a waste
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Brady temp is -0.2 here and falling
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Are these Irish Sea showers - where r u brady
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Very Heavy snow in Pembs now and temperature dropping
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Spot on by the met office in my opinion. The red warning was justified because the potential was there.
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Good few inches overnight in Johnston - just south of Haverfordwest. Very sleety now - temp 0.8 c.
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Thaw has set in here
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No weather forecast is set in stone - this could turn out to be a big letdown - have witnessed this many times before
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4c and light rain here in Pembrokeshire
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Looking at RainToday radar I get the same (horrible !!) feeling - looking at the radar it seems to be just off the Gower Coast - if this hits land in the next hour as likely then we will, with temps of +5 degrees only have rain. Should it turn to snow at 3am as stated elsewhere then I fear with 4+ hours of rain there is no way that snow will settle her. Hope I'm wrong big time but gut is telling me something is not correct. If the low dewpoints are on their way they are cutting it VERY fine to get here without missing the start of the party.
Heavy snow will settle on wet surfaces - have seen this many times with rain to snow events
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Temperatures better start dropping because at 3.7C rain or sleet is going to fall
Brady said temps will start to fall around 1am
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The latest UKMO fax charts are out, they go with the raw output:
T96hrs:
T120hrs:
Given the model disagreements these are bound to change but for tonights quiz question what is unusual about both of these given what you might expect to see?
Reverse zonality
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I'm still sceptical about this event especially for the marginal areas of Wales. It hasn't been cold all week. Most major snow events that I have experienced in 40 years in SW Wales have been preceded by bitter cold - we just haven't had this. Usual areas will get snow - not holding out much hope for anything significant elsewhere.
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It is the main band and its developing nicely, like you say looks fairly timid at this stage but as this slows as it moves towards the welsh coast, it will expand in both size and intensity so no need to worry.
What time are the temps progged to start falling
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All of Wales will be a snow to snow event apart from the south Pembrokeshire coast where DP's rise here in the day however North Pembrokeshire hang onto sub zero DP's so snow may stay as snow here all day. And for those of you under the mega snowfall totals, enjoy
Would this be just areas along the coast or the whole of south Pembs
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Most of Pembrokeshire now looks likely to see some snow but it will most likely turn to rain in coastal areas such as milford, tenby etc at this stage.
Brady - this is a huge/significant upgrade from yesterday - and dont forget this could upgrade further for us - this in a complex and evolving situation.
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Terry Wogans famous quote on Radio 2 during the 1982 blizzard - " Wales is cut off "
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Brady - there does seem to be an upgrade for Pembrokeshire - what are your thoughts on this - I still feel we may be on the wrong side of marginal.
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Nick Miller hinting at a possible red warning for parts. Nice to see even Pembrokeshire is in the yellow now. Would ideally like to see another small shift westward to make sure its not so marginal but certainly WAY better than last night for my area. People in south east Wales and the valleys, i would start to take action, with 40mph SE winds, your looking at some big snow drifts with hedge to hedge drifts in places. Models showing no let up on cold and this snow which could be topped up on Monday could easily last well into next week.
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Brady is right - if the westward correction is not repeatable in tomorrow's output then it's cold rain for the south-west.
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That is some shift west - in a short space of time - in 1982 it was also very marginal for the far SW with most forecasts predicting a brief snow to rain event - we all know what happened next!
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Here's the shift west on NAE...
Edit.. Benb beat me to it
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This is marginal for Pembrokeshire - but if we stay on the right side and the block holds and intensifies we could have a dumping
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Why are we concerned regarding GFS - it hasn't had a clue over the last three weeks in the medium term - very poor performance. UKMO has been the king pin in handling this block - even here there has been some error, for example Mondays undercutting low is a much weaker affair than modelled a few days ago.