The Weather Dragon
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Posts posted by The Weather Dragon
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Not being down beat....but I can't see anything to get excited about with the current model output - we all know what we need for a decent cold spell. The current output doesn't even come close - just trying to get some balance back into the debate !
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My opinion - after 11 years of roaming these forums - the best cold has come from short term upgrades - not from looking deep into fantasy island - which at times can be 120-144 onwards
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8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
An anticyclone? What's that???!!!!
a weather system with high barometric pressure at its centre, around which air slowly circulates in a clockwise (northern hemisphere) or anticlockwise (southern hemisphere) direction. Anticyclones are associated with calm, fine weather.
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8 hours ago, Bristle boy said:
UK.
Atlantic weather.
Warm Gulf Stream.
Basics.
Nuff said.
To be fair - you are spot on. Hence our prevailing south westerly's and the semi permanent plume of warm uppers over us for the majority of most winters. We all realise that what we are looking for is the outsider (northern blocking) which may only influence us bringing significant prolonged cold about once every 20/30 years.
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Well into the 1st week of February and still no solid signal for anything significantly colder. We seem to be clutching at straws. Time is well and truly running out for this dire winter - especially for us southern/south westerners
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42 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:
Agree but when it's 1vs the rest it more than likely will be wrong
Spot on !
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GFS say no - discard GFS - all eyes on ECM & in particular METO over the next few days
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I do remember some models (can't remember which) predicting a persisting euro high (Bartlett) back in the autumn 2015 - with a relationship to the strong El Niño - back to current model output & it's looking gloomy for cold - next best would be some more settled weather.
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It hasn't even been cold for us in the southwest 7c by day and no frost is not cold just average I'm afraid
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To be realistic - current output suggests a lengthy anticyclonic spell - the like of which we have not seen for some time. As always with the UK the positioning of the system will dictate surface conditions with anything from dull and dreary with little diurnal range in temperature to sparkling sunshine with early & late frost and fog. A classic old style february scenario - however not the most exciting for us model watchers - looking back historically these anticyclones can drift and reposition themselves at relativley short notice - sometimes favourably for more significant cold.
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For the first time during this chilly spell - the temperature has just reached 0c
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All met office warnings removed for Wales just now - for the next few days - looks like the games up for us with it turning more anti cyclonic later next week
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I'm confident that we'll see a Pembroke Dangler setup on Saturday and more so into Sunday - depending on the frequency/intensity of the shower activity - our South Western most residents may see some decent accumulations. As ever don't expect media/forecasts to focus on this - they never do ! Warnings from METO also seem to come at very short notice
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OMG look at Anglesey!
Don't worry - there's still a lot of uncertainty regarding the track of this system down from Iceland
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4.4 C in Johnston dropped from 8 C at 7am
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I must admit - there's been an improvement for cold
The improvements are based around a seperate blocking HP cell forming around SW Iceland
Will be monitoring this closely over the coming runs
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Which would be followed a few days later by this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0
Believe me, people wouldn't be arguing about marginality if that came to pass. Of course its all just speculation anyway.
This is what we need to see for prolonged nationwide snow & cold
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Although it was nice to look at the GFS 06z op was a significant cold outlier after 3rd Feb
Expect changes on the 12z
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With all the chopping and changing in the models such as 0z and 6z it is important to keep reminding ourselves that fi is fi= unreliable time frame- whether it's showing the jet stream roaring through us from the west or a raging northerly, if it's after 72- 96 hours and changing from one run to the next then as the pros have constantly said we cannot take these charts as gospel- I do believe at some point we will be rewarded for our patience though & hopefully 1-0 to the net weather February forecast come a months time:-)
I refer you to my earlier post -
Posted Today, 08:45
I think that we could do with a model forum discussing output up to t120z only - would save a lot of disputes
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It will be interesting to know if the METO still see signals for blocking Mid Feb, if so then maybe some changes to the current mid term outlook will happen. Not much sign of this happening at the minute but with a bit of strat warming in the offing maybe the models are not seeing the bigger picture medium - long term.
MET also have access to different models
I think there is a bit of a lag between what we see in the latest model output and Media ouput/TV broadcasts
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I think that we could do with a model forum discussing output up to t120z only - would save a lot of disputes
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A potent PM airmass and temporary mid atlantic ridging will deliver for a few but not for most
I've never seen any hint of substained blocking in the past week or so's model output
Take a look at the historical charts section to see what synoptics we need for a UK wide significant cold spell
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The NAO may go negative for a short time - however then trending positive again - a cold start to February soon to be replaced by milder conditions
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This has always been on the marginal side - FOR LOWLAND SOUTHERN UK - potent PM followed by mid Atlantic ridging - this is not a downgrade - certain areas will do very well out of this with significant snow - especially Scotland and Northwestern UK - it is not and never has been a nationwide freeze
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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I wouldn't get to excited south-easterners - this is nearly a week away in a complex set up & things WILL change