The Weather Dragon
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Ok - cold yes that's on its way - exceptional cold NO
A potent PM airmass brings snow for the favoured areas late Weds/Thursday
Then we rely on some Mid Atlantic ridging for the weekend and first few days of Feb - not expecting much from this - but some will do ok
Far from a Nationwide Event
Not being purposely negative - just realistic
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Promising medium range charts tonight - need to see these synoptics to be consistent across all main models at t120z
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Still no sign of HLB and lowered heights around the Azores = no prolonged severe spell with guaranteed settling lowland snow
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Ian did mention blocking - and if you remember a week or so ago - he mentioned that Met models were trending an anticyclonic spell in February with a SW airflow - a Bartlett fits the bill ! At least it will be dry & settled
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Not liking this !!!! 1050mb - that won't shift in a hurry
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Have been studying the historical charts - we ain't going to get out of this one folks - what are the odds on HLB for April/May !!
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People - keep your hopes up; even though the outlook is poor it still is only the 19th January. Would we be writing summer off in mid July ? We are eternal optimists
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The Met Office have been bang on so far - they give a sensible balanced forecast without bias (to cold !!!) and ramping - if you don't want to be let down and dissapointed your better of following them instead of some of the rampers on here !!!!
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We've got to remember that significant HLB does not happen very often - we had a run of winters recently from 2009-2013 when signficant HLB did occur and we were rather spoilt - it may be some time before we experience such winters again
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The lesson learned is that for nationwide cold snowy weather we need solid high latitude blocking - without it would be marginal for the majority of lowland areas especially towards the South - this type of blocking doesn't occur very often - and the models and indicators certainly aren't showing any signs of this soon !
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That latest GFS(12z) chart for next Sunday is one of the most depressing oF the season for you guys. I just do not know what to say, a two bit cold spell then a gentle mild waft from way down south takes over again. What do you have to do to get a proper easterly in place ? Could come in February but another week passes by all to readily.
Getting rid of the PV over Greenland & Shifting the Azores High Westwards would help - no sign of that happening soon
We need to be more realistic and less biased regarding model output - whatever it shows & stop straw clutching which unfairly raises expectations
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I think a look at late December 1978 shows how quickly things COULD change....not saying they will mind...
FROM DEC 25
To DEC 31
Different synoptics already in place at the start of that 5 day period for sure.....but perhaps.....(not withstanding my earlier post) the seeds of something similar are already in place regarding the strat
Look at the HLB on the 25th December 1978 chart though - not a sign of that emerging for us any time soon
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The complex situation hasn't happened yet and they have been all over the place.The rest of the week looks cold with fronts at the end of the week looking to try and push in.
As for using the M62 as a snow line IDO,forget it.It's not like using the M4 as there are the pennines which run down through Derbyshire and South Yorkshire.
The models handled the general synoptical theme well for this week (give or take 50-100 miles)
There will be snow for some - some of which will be nowcasting (marginality)
Everything is wrongly positioned synoptically for significnat cold (Stubborn PV Greenland & Azores High)
Russian High does not have the associated energy to flex it's muscles
As I stated though - for some a wintry week with snow and cold minima - nothing unusual though
Fingers crossed for February
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The models have thus far handled this complex situation very well - and all have been signalling the return of W/SW regime for some time. We need a reset which takes us into February. More than likely looking towards mid February for another shot at cold.
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I just wanted to bring a balanced view
I desperately want the cold and snowy weather to prevail
My take on this after analyzing the various outputs is that the westerly airmass as shown on this mornings GFS will establish itself
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The return of a SW/W airmass by the end of the week is a high probability now - with the current consistent output
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Here's my take
A chilly week approaching - some will see significant snow - most won't
Westerly regime into the SW by Friday - will likely be around for 7-10 days
Disappointed - Yes
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Looks like Darren Bett could be spot on with his 'milder boxing day' suggestion !
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I've been a member since 2005 & have been quietly following this winter. IMHO ECM has been poor this & last winter - a model that traditionaly managed to model high latitude blocking reasonably well has been overly progressive this season - This is a strong Scandinavian block but unfortunatley I feel that we will always be on the periphery of it - as has been the case in recent winters - Still waiting for the elusive Greenland/Icelandic High
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Good to see models suggesting predominantly dry weather. Up to 6 c already here on the SW. There has been a significant lack of cold surface temps this winter even when Synoptics have been favourable - complete contrast to 2009/10. We have had more surface cold and ice in the past with so called faux cold set ups - disapointing winter overall.
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Not to much to get excited about from the overnight/morning runs. Cold - YES, Severe Cold - NO. Snow for some - YES. Nationwide - NO. Significant lack of cold pooling over Continental Europe. Expect further modification upwards of 850's and further downgrades. Advice - to follow the MET O on this one to avoid dissapointment.
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Very pleasing 06z run post 150h we desperately need a settled anticyclonic spell of weather - whatever the airmass ! - have a gut feeling that we will get this - but the weather will be very much on the average side with no significant cold spell.
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=144&mode=0&carte=
06z ensembles are IMO very good. About half of the 20 peturbations send the energy SE at or around t+144. There are 3 or 4 others that are not far from doing the same, and then the remaining 6 or 7 show the kind of Atlantic breakthrough that both the operational and control and indeed the ops of both the UKMO and ECM show at around +144.
Peturbations 2, 3, 6, 9, 10, 15, 18 and 20 are all great or close to being so.
The mean, linked above, doesn't really justify any comments that the cold spell is definitely going to end either. I may end up eating my words later...
Maybe the GEM op is onto something with energy diverted SE. This has been a stubborn block much stronger than any of us thought it would be.
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Out of interest is there any evidence to suggest we are experiencing less northerly events and more easterly events. It must be several years since the last major northerly.
Last major northerly was nov/dec 2010
Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Didn't indicate anything severe though - just getting colder - element of doubt regarding longevity of cold - Met office yellow warning for Scotland & Northwest in keeping with current model output