The Weather Dragon
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Evening All!
Well, here we go again!
Great few runs from a range of models over the last 24hrs hours.
Obviously things will change, that's the nature of the beast, but it looks like another prolonged cold spell could well be on the cards.
The northerly has slowly been prolonged and intensified in terms of cold 850s over the last couple of days: still -10 850s over parts of Wales on Monday morning and then cold air from the east is forecast (currently) to seep across Wales before the milder air ever reaches even the far west. After that, it looks, well, cold for err... ever?
Snow potential difficult to firm up on at this stage. N/NW set up favours Pembrokeshire/Carmarthenshire, but in this unstable air flow, snow can develop almost anywhere and there certainly will be a few surprises. Indeed, similar synoptics have already delivered in my location this year. Notably, Jan 1st and 5th.
Personally, don't fancy Thurs into Friday much- the cold air probably won't have established itself sufficiently (perhaps back-edge snow), but any time after Friday lunchtime precipitation will certainly be of a wintry nature. Could be three days of snow showers in favoured spots ie Preseli Mountains, high ground in Carmarthenshire. More organised, widespread snow is possible at times as troughs develop in the flow.
Another potential snow event appears to be Monday into Tues- see if that little 'low' nipping across the top of the high and across the S coast of Wales develops over the next few days.
Anyway- ENJOY!
Good Summary Ben - Excellent synoptics for the weekend which usually deliver us heavy snow showers here in Pembrokeshire
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I think that Frosty is refering to a mild 'Blip'
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Hi All - Models seem to be favouring some type of Northern Blocking scenario in the medium term. In the short term I think that this Weekends N/NW'erly will deliver for the favoured few. Can anybody verify whether the usual teleconnections are favourable regarding the Northern blocking (I know that the AO & NAO are predicted to Enter a - phase)
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Models seem to be catching onto the evolution quite quickly now. Details to change of course but the general idea is looking good and right. I believe that we are heading into a cold to very cold Feb, the jetstream will push south and any FI outlook of strong northern arm will disappear. This projection of retrograde and High pressure in Atlantic then heading north...looks familiar doesn't it?
Interesting to see The arctic is colder than average at the moment and are we looking at a SSW due to the very current activity [flares] from the sun?
BFTP
My thoughts exactly BFTP - This hasn't been a normal winter - and we're only half way through
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To be fair to GFS it was showing the scenario that UKMO & GME is showing for early next week a few days ago - it spotted the trend. Fax charts are confident of an easterly at 120z (I tend to find these reliable). Why has GFS backed down over the last few runs. Someone is going to have to fall back in line today!!
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I am impressed with GFS this time - i trusted it's consistency - it is also good at spotting northerly outbreaks in the medium range - yesterdays 12z ECM is truly in the bin. ECM follows GFS (this time) - as I have stated previously a cold week with some snow next week - followed by retrogresion and a potent northerly as the PV splits
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GFS has been 'solid as a rock' over the evolution of the easterly - if anything 18z is an upgrade. I am impressed.
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I just don't buy the later evolution of ECM. ECM has performed well over the last Eight weeks - it couldn't last though. We have seen GFS lead the way in cold trends over the last few years. Lets get to Sat and see where we are then. Rob (Legend) McElwee is keen on the cold next week.
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The Scandi high trend will be backed by ECM tonight - We are seeing the building blocks for the next cold spell - Next week will be cold with snow about. I have a feeling that we will see retrogression of this Scandi high into the Atlantic and towards Greenland. The big question is that will conditions be condusive to maintain this block and prolong our cold spell.
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METO 144z is a corker. If anyone has been reading my posts today - I had been suggesting that I had been 'reliably informed'
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Bin medium range evolution of 12z GFS tonight although in the short term its fine. Stick with UKMO & ECM for likley medium range trends
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Not much comment on the nogaps 00z today......I wonder why, could it be because there is no E'ly showing next week? OR for that matter the ukmo 00z, no E'ly there either.
NOGAPS has a poor verification record for Europe (I have never consulted this model for the past 7 years) - I am reliably informed that there will be a big swing towards the Easterley on tonights UKMO
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Just look at the overall trends & use your instincts & experience - we are heading for a wintry last week in January continuing into early Feb. As with any cold scenario the detail will be sketchy until a day or even hours before.
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That looks like a bit of a hopecast to me! The outlook is the same as yesterday- settled, probably cold to some degree, but detail hard to pin down. The GFS 06Z goes for the coldest and snowiest-case scenario.
No this isn't a hopecast. I am not saying that we will end up with what GFS 06z has suggested today, what I am saying is that a pattern is becoming established which will lead to an increasingly cold (not particularly severe) & wintry (not particularly snow) outlook.
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No it was my fault for not mentioning the differences.
The GEFS ensembles are out and they look very good!
http://www.meteociel...unpara=0&mode=0 (Longer Range)
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=6&runpara=0&mode=1 (Shorter Range)
UKMO will be back on board soon
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What makes you so sure JE?
The models are acting like a Mexican saloon door at the moment.
Hi Shrimper
This is my own personal outlook based on a mixture of intense model evaluation, Global teleconnections & experience.
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UKMO did lead the way with yesterdays 12z 144 Chart - The current 06z GFS pattern will become nailed in by Thursday with all models agreeing on an increasingley cold & wintry outlook. We are seeing the no-mans land uncertainty being replaced with a full on westward movement of the Siberian/scandi High. Expect retrogression of the high towards Greenland for early Feb
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FI definatly at around T96 at present - GFS doesn't look plausible between 96-144 expect changes here. ECM will back UKMO 144 tonight.
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Except for yesterday, when I suggested odds were 70-30 in favour, I always thought that easterly looked an outside bet, despite frequent support from the ECMWF operational runs. I quoted 30-70 against back then- now maybe it's out to 20-80, as the support for it is quite low. However both GFS (06Z) and ECMWF, while they don't go for a full-on easterly, they go for enough of an input of continental air to give potential for snow events as the Atlantic systems push against the cold air. Bear in mind that in this setup you don't necessarily need a full-on easterly for it to get cold.
I do think that, in countering the "cold ramping" tendency to see only what people want to see, you're sometimes going towards the other extreme in focusing heavily on the mild possibilities. Level-headedness implies staying away from both extremes.
I wouldn't call a return to mild Atlantic dominated weather an extreme for the British Isles in Winter - Rather Normal in fact
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We were always going to be on the periphery of the Easterley anyway - the block is slowly receding & this will become more & more evident with subsequent model runs
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No backtracking - I fully expect all models to eventually support the Atlantic dominance - the quicker the better as I have already mentioned
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The Atlantic is really firing up at the moment & coupled with the Jetstream moving slightly further North & the PV becoming well established over Greenland I hope that the block recedes quickly. A long protracted battle will leave us in a dull no mans land for days before the Atlantic eventually wins.When the Atlantic steams in it'll take some shifting thus wasting precious Mid-Winter time. The key to any change is the splitting of the PV which could allow retrogression and blocking towards Iceland/Greenland - this is a slight possibility 5-10% probability.
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Raining in Haverfordwest now - a dissapointing event for many I fear
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I think that this will be dissapointing for most South Walians - but this was always expected despite Media & METO Hype. The cold air over us just isn't cold enough to support a widspread snow event. Downgrades already for West Wales - expect these for most of coastal South Wales - although high ground over 200m will see snow. As I said 'as expected'
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes - focus on the Northerly this weekend - it looks certain & will definatley bring some wintery weather & some suprises. The Easterly is & has always been deep in FI and it may well stay there. I for one will not be taking notice until the Easterley scenario is getting within a 144/120 timframe and has general cross model agreement. Teleconnections can & have been overidden in the past.