The Weather Dragon
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18z NAE, Precip accumulations come out before the main output and these show a BIG shift west of the precip with only 3mm in Manchester, bristol 9-10mm. South Wales still up to 20mm with a shift west for sure! this alway seems to happen before these type of events.
Brady - is this looking better for Pembs
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Snow in crymych - settling now
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3c here in Pembs and raining
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It is around 40-50 miles further west than the other models and the front pivots and gives us at least snow until the evening. However it is the only one this far west even though they all have shifted westwards very slightly, including the NAE. We need a 50 mile shift to get at least something. Plausible but we're running out of times. Definately going to be a nowcasting situation and there will be more changes.
As you say very much nowcasting - a 50 miles shift is peanuts in a Northen Hemisphere/atmospheric sense
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I would say Cardiff at the moment is good, dew points below freezing and south east winds with wbfl good also on high res models up until what we can see anyway, however its not a definate and NAE does show snow turning to rain along the south coast through the day but whether it reaches Cardiff i am not sure yet, but your certainly in a good place right now. By the way, GEM is the best for the whole for Wales as the trough disrupts and the front pivots more NW SE'ly giving nearly all of Wales snow. One to watch, its around 50 miles further west than the others, a small change could make a big difference here.
Brady - Have not seen GEM yet - is it good for Pembrokeshire?
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Friday will be a non event for a large portion of lowland South West Wales - Pembrokeshire, Carmartheshire, Swansea area - just cold and heavy rain here I'm afraid - unless there is a significant westward shift and ideal pivoting/stalling of the front
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No snow for Lowland Pembrokeshire on Friday - Although the Preselis will more than likley see some snow. Very much on the wrong side of marginal
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Brady - we need deep entrenced cold across the UK to stand any chance of snow from an atlantic front - and we just aint got it.
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No cold here in Pembrokeshire - very marginal for Friday - would expect rain - the cold uppers have never truly established themselves. Nowhere near 2009/2010. The ramping in the model thread is unbelivable - when will they ever learn
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Please can someone advise - I do have some considerable experience regarding models etc. Why do GFS temperature charts for my area (Pembrokeshire SWWales) always overestimate min/ max temps. Let me give you an example - midday today GFS 8c, actual temp 3c - this also happens with nighttime minima
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This weekends cold is now also downgraded from previous runs - especially south of the midlands
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GFS is Bullish - a zonal flow next week. I am an avid coldie but the odds must be in favour of a return to zonality - if GFS pulls this off then ECM/MET models reputation will be seriously damaged.
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No backdown from gfs. SW flow by 132. Desperatley need gfs on board. Gut feeling that this is going down the pan!
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I think that some have underestimated the potential for this weekend - the scandi high may orientate itself in a favourable position for us - which could provide many with the first snows of the winter
I am only looking out to +120 and even then with caution - the weekends cold has been upgraded on 12z GFS due to a tighter E/NE gradient drawing the colder uppers in - could be further upgrades here - often see this in the shorter/medium term
What we can be reasonably certain of now is a pressure rise over scandinavia - as for post +120 dismiss - we all know what has happened before
That why we don't need to worry about the ECM operational for the medium term tonight
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Latest model trends - goodbye to atlantic dominance - and a trigger low along the south coast / channel could open the floodgates.....third bite of the cherry anyone!!!!!
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When will people learn regarding model output relating to potent easterlies. I have been on this forum since 2005 and have seen countless easterlies watered down by the models at short notice. It's not our normal weather and models struggle. Best to wait until 48 hours and then to concentrate on fax charts to be honest - would save a lot of let downs.
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8C in pembrokeshire - tropical!
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I like the GFS 06z up to 180 - clear split in the PV. Moving away westwards & eastwards from greenland. Trends
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Well we are now facing up to an intense PV and Uncle Barty;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png
Get to here, and it's a long haul back to even the sort of cooler zonality seen lately
It is more sensible to look for short term trends rather than making a statement on a chart that has a very low probability of verifying - same old story every year!
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A classic West based negative NAO established across all models - this has been modelled for some weeks - once set up it is proving difficult to shift - if only the block had formed further east.
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It looks plenty cold enough next week for widespread snow, even John Hammond said that and I agree with him. I'm astonished it's so quiet on here considering we have such amazing snow potential just beyond the weekend unless everyone is on snow watch down in east kent!
All the data points to a very marginal event next week - rain & sleet is the highest probability - snow only for favoured locations - That's why it's so quiet.
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...We need the greenland high about 500 miles south east, if were to be guaranteed blizzards. that aint guna happen
Most people though that the current cold spell 'weren't guna happen'....but it did. 500 miles isn't much when looking at a Global scale.
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I like the look of GFS for Sun/Mon & Tuesday. If the pattern shown can evolve slightly further East then we are in for some decent snowfall. It wouldn't take much of a shift. JE
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Met Office update as expected after discussing this with my contact yesterday. We seem to have missed the opportunity to get hold of some cold uppers this weekend. The bulk of the cold is slipping into France as illustrated in the latest model runs. It looks likely that there will be milder air mixed up with next weeks Northerly - snow only for higher elevations. We are definately going to have a cold spell - however it is going to be a fairly mundane affair for most with a wintry mix of precipitation the best we can hope for together with some frost. By the way it's a lovely day out here today clear blue skys and an increasingley warmer sun
Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
Any comments regarding Mondays undercutting low potential?