Decemberof2010

Their 5 day forecast which includes Sunday doesn't focus on the south. And on the app it has snow symbols for Sunday

And yet on GEM/UKMO and arpege it is quite an event for us. The met back this up too. So are you dismissing those and going with GFS?

Hopefully a mild outlier?

Wasn't there a GFS run last year, that was absolutely ridiculous? I remember talk of 3 feet of snow and minus 17!! There wasn't any back up however like this time. Fingers crossed fellow coldies, it's been a long wait!

I think the problem is, after the last few winters, whatever model is being the spoil sport seems to be correct! Be it GFS, ECM or UKMO. You would expect the GFS to slowly move towards the euros, however there's a sinking feeling it has it correct. I'd love the euros to be right though

So, within a few posts we get told it's a move closer to the euros, and another post saying it's an awful run. Very confusing for people like me who know a fraction of the things people on here do! Love this site but it can be hard work at times

Correct. Even wetter and milder!

They always cover every scenario with clever wording. The real truth is, as stated above they actually don't know. I stopped pinning hopes on their 30 day outlooks after last years bust.

Thanks for those booferking. Looking forward to all the ups and downs of the upcoming winter in the model thread. And hopefully a cold early start will set us up nicely

Be careful how long you sit on the fence for. You may end up falling off into deep potential. Anyhow let's see what the 6z has in store. I'm hoping for some upgrades for a chance of snow later next week. Looking forward to the 12z's already as well

I agree. A move in the right direction today on that update.

Mmmm quite surprised by this update. Granted it may be gone in the next few days, but for them to mention it means they are seeing something. Last few updates have been poor so it could swing back, who knows!

Pato Banton Baby come back

Oh I realise that I was thinking more towards late next week 'if' cold does set in properly

Got to agree. Listening to the radio at work would lead many to believe 'the day after tomorrow' is unfolding. It's standard weather for us here and not overly cold. I just hope the 10 day cold chase can produce some proper cold for us this winter. Had enough snow in January last year to build a snowman, can that happen again?

I'm a novice at this but slightly better amplification at 96h? I may be wrong

Nice to see you back posting the cold charts Frosty Fingers crossed you'll be posting a lot more cold charts in the coming days!!!

Likewise. However it would be just our luck for this once, that it is correct Hope I'm wrong of course

Always intriguing watching other mothers . It's also gonna be intriguing watching the models

Wow what a chart to go to sleep on, lol

Yes very confusing for new members like me. As after reading the latest MO update it's still favouring cold/blocked.

One of the main reasons I started coming on this forum, was to look at the models and then see the assessment from people on here. The best part is definitely the chase of the cold charts coming off. However for the last 2 winters every time promise was shown it was shot down because the MO weren't on board. They ended up being correct everytime. So in a way that fun part was draining away as you knew unless they were in agreement the charts were just good to look at. So if they are wrong on this then it gives that hope and fun back to start chasing the great charts again. They have been great last few winters though I have to say. Its just typical the one year they are showing blocking they "could" be wrong. Onto the 12's

7 days model watching makes one weak

It does seem that whenever we have uncertainty regarding mild v cold emerging, that slowly but surely the mild signals then strengthen. It never seems to be the other way around. Hope that can change this time though. Such high spirits on here yesterday morning as well. Shows what difference a day can make. Keep your chins up fellow coldies and keep the faith we are well overdue some luck!

Just had a quick look through the ensembles at T384 There are quite a few that look similar to the above image as well. The mean demonstrates this well