January Snowstorm

The ecm almost always gets to a boom chart by 240hrs. It's at it for over a week now and does some this morning. Of course the other models aren't any better in their chopping and changing. A couple of signals that have grown the last 24 hours or so - Weaker heights over Greenland and also further East which in turn are shoving the Northerly further East. - Remaining cold at the surface out to day 10 so quite a frosty week where skies are clear. - Very dry with little chance of snow throughout. - A shortening of the cold spell looks inevitable with some sort of Atlantic breakdown during week 2. For me the Met Office have done a very good job. Called it cold very early, said it would be mainly dry which it is, and we're stand offish long term. Folks other than us on here, there is almost no talk of a cold snowy spell in the public domain and for now that remains the correct outlook

Actually very poor from the 18z control!! Worse than op at this point with no proper heights over Greenland

Having viewed all models including the latest 18z am certain of one thing.....we are going to be exhausted on the floor by the time this comes home.....I've never seen such promise and background signals take so long to evolve.....not complaining but I need a sleep

The last couple of icons and gfs have downgraded potential for Monday and Tuesday shoving the coldest uppers South of previous projections. We are almost back where we started here I.e non event. Interestingly the Met both here and UK never bought into it. Still time for upgrades though!

I agree, too much on cold happening from all sources! Experience helps in these circumstances and I remember all previous cold spells like 2010 etc. I'll sum up my experience in one line "If John Holmes is going for it, you can be 110% certain it will happen!!"

This is the gfs at 240hrs. Ukmo looks like it would go similar. I presume the disappointment with gfs is what it shows at like +300hrs?? That is one awesome gfs run I think Also the cold pool in 3 days time is upgrading almost by the minute

Awesome, 2010 yet again!

Look at this from ukmo for just 3 days time!! How has that cold pool just grown and deepened over just 12hours!!

Perfection from gfs!!

Control picking up the convection now over Ireland!! Might look like snow grains but that could give quite the fall around my area

Yes Icon and gfs up the ante yet again with cold pool early next week!! It's now an event no question. I'm liking this for Southern Ireland especially, it has spell of snow written all over it!!

It would be up there with 2010 and cause widespread disruption!! Background signals much better, Meto update very good Game on!!

I've a feeling the models over corrected earlier, a thing they can do!! Why do I feel tomorrow is going to be a day of incredible charts!!

The 18z is the best run of the week!! Major upgrade here folks, both in next week's Easterly and more so next weekend!

The control has much colder uppers in the South now aswell, and hence stronger convection. Erm, this could deliver for the Southeast and my own area!!

Yes its kind of creeping up on us last few hours!! Worth noting gem for first to upgrade!! It's a slice of deep cold that has the ability to produce

The gfs is also upgrading potential early next week. Imby that's a snow maker for areas like Cork on Tuesday. Uppers of minus 10, over a warm sea!! It has more potential than it may look....

Amazing how the moans end up in here but incessant ramping is always left alone. Yet this is also meant to be the ramp thread

The uppers for Tuesday are significantly higher than previous run on 06z gfs. Minus 8s across the South last night are now minus 2 to minus 5 No snow anywhere on that, but it was always marginal to be fair

Maybe they give a realistic view rather than ramping. Southern Ireland gets as much snow as anywhere else as we can be hit from the East and West. The gfs was poor last night and worse this morning. The ecm was good and I said that. That's not doom posting its posting what the charts show The reality is very few have seen a snowflake half way through Winter. Having said that background noises remain good

Indeed but most on here look for cold in the hoped that it delivers snow eventually. I can only speak for myself but if it's not going to snow I have zero interest in cold We are waiting a long-time to get this home. A mid latitude high eating into January is not what most want. It might as well get mild

Proper cold by ecm Actually the first chart at 240 hrs in a while that has the cold already over us

I'd say day 10 will be best yet! Let's see...

The Ecm is very good. Indeed its colder than last night, as in gets the cold in faster!! Maybe the ship can be steadied yet!