January Snowstorm

Have we had even one decent ecm run in the last 2 weeks?? I'm far from convinced about all of this. Hope and potential yes, but it is far from guaranteed

Your right there, re a bit of luck Something of note from a 50 year old, I've experienced 4 or 5 notable winter snow events in my life and 3 of them were in the last 14 years. So while global warming is heating the planet, without question it is ironically affecting our Winters re cold! Don't be fooled into thinking Winters were much better yonks ago, the facts are they were not!!

Just like Storm Emma, it can happen!!

Indeed but it's a different cold really isn't it. Mindsets have moved on to thinking of Spring in March. Cold spells are not disruptive in March compared to mid Winter. Your point is right though, March is statistically colder than Dec

So while we look forward to a promise of wintry conditions in January worth commenting that most will have endured yet another snowless December. It must be around the 10th mild Bland Christmas here in a row, which rivals anything the 90s threw at us... Now the positive stuff, it's clear to me the Strat is going to have a major impact as we move into the New Year. All of the big weather guru's including the Met Office seem to be going for this one!! When last did we get a decent January cold spell?? I genuinely can't remember one other than the tail end of '09 If we were gambling we'd be bankrupt long ago, a royal flush in January would be sweet

Newer members here may not understand the significance of what's unfolding!! Believe me some of the guys posting the last 24hours or so rarely post on here unless a big event is looming!! One little quip I have though. The depth of cold to our North could be better...

It might be windy but rainfall is way below average the last week or so!

In what way? I do see improvement in the 192hrs but that's about it..

I don't agree. The reliable timeframe offers all sorts of routes ahead that would lead to cold. Yes gfs is defaulting at 220hrs to its regular pattern. Changes can occur around the 192hrs that alter everything after that.

Those who think this is a normal zonal type pattern/chart need to look again. It's full of potential and ripe for development to cold! Somethings afoot, and ok it's not going to save Christmas but it could well come to fruition this side of new year!!

Correct me if I'm wrong but I do believe we are on about our 6th consecutive Christmas where the weather is non descript!! No cold, no storms, no wintry hope right through to New Year. I don't mind it being green but fgs give us some weather!!!

Watching the models reminds me of gambling!! Days full of highs and lows, but the lows always being definitive!! It really isn't good for your health guys all jokes aside!! The reality is that in the year 2023 the science can still not predict the weather beyond 5 days. We could do that 40 years ago, so zero progress!

It looks like the run is sober tonight and the spectators are all drunk! It's so bad meteociel pulled it

I think we have established by now this evenings ukmo run was a good one! May not be right but was good

Equally for the first time in days the jma has us back in Southwesterlys by the 27th!! As does the gem and gfs. So firming up on a cold Christmas but perhaps a brief envelope of 2/3 days before it turns milder

Which is most respected by the Met. All to play for

Sorry but that's inaccurate. The Jma and GEM have been far more consistent the last few days than the so called big 3. They all have their use imo

Your showing your age now Nick. Not many will know who Flash Gordon was lol Extraordinary developments, with the Icon usually close to ECM I'm confident of a good run! The ukmo really is the best sofar

She was using the old reverse psychology trick lol. 6 hours later her forecast could be looking very stupid!!

The talk all morning was about the Iberian High. It has vanished across all models in 12 hours Wow, all sorts of mouth watering scenarios are now on offer for Christmas

Ukmo @ 168hrs!!! The gfs had them all again Christmas bets are back on

I think I said Game On this time last night. Tonight's ukmo, Game on!!

Massive Icon!!! Keep laughing at your peril re JMA

Difficult to judge things this evening. I feel a slight bit wary that all could be gone by the morning runs. Just a hunch that I hope will be wrong! The positive is that ALL models show deep cold very close to our North so literally all options remain!

It's an awesome chart!!