January Snowstorm

So the main take from this evenings models is an extension of the cold spell - cold as in below average. Always that bit less cold over in Ireland, hence a lack of much interest in the next week or so! Seems to be very little ppn showing up though it is indeed possible that little disturbances will crop up. A seasonal start to December but just all a tad underwhelming. Latest 850s from Icon showing how Ireland never really stays in the cold

As predicted the Scandi High is gone this morning!!

Because at 168hrs a tiny area of high pressure that no other models show to our Southwest moves through us and into Scandi. The initial high is very doubtful and hence rest of run 100/1 stuff

It will definitely be gone on the next run. The route to where it got at 240hrs just isn't practical. Nice to look at but pure FI

Jma going for Southwesterlys by Monday!! That's a worry

Heights gone at 168hrs!! Only one way from here, and it ain't cold

Excellent ecm at 120hrs Proper cold!

The GEM also brings Sunday's low in at a higher angle, siding with gfs. However its much better afterwards as it backs winds North again. I dunno folks, I struggle to get too excited about this event. The honest cold light of day analysis really is that it's not going to be cold enough for most. Yes some favoured spots turn lucky and will see snow. Long term is completely unknown. History has often put us zonal after a week or so of cold. A good ECM might lighten my humour Gem,

Great ukmo, important because it leaves the gfs totally isolated tonight!! Synoptically stunning, but then you go and check you know what and it's a little deflating

Yes a cold GEM, brings winds up to Storm force in the Southwest

The parameters don't support snow. Thickness too high, 850s too high. Just my opinion

The Icon is getting messy further in, looks like a slider but also looks like it'll be gone on the next run. Very cold still. Best explained by this, jet stream down over Spain!!

Much better run for Ireland also. Proper cold moving down on Thursday!! I would take proper cold and drier 1000s times over marginal sleety stuff.

Well I think evidence of a home grown cold pool is now being realised by the models! This will help hugely in swinging marginal situations more to snow (talking post Friday) Ice days are certainly possible next weekend and beyond. I'm sure everyone agrees there is no better time of year to get cold and snow than either side of Christmas. Both from a traditional pov but also with little daytime warming. Folks we are on the cusp this year and we deserve it!

Little comment on the 06z gfs but it's actually shaping up to be a fantastic run with low after low sliding under the block. Showing a possible route beyond next week of bitter cold locking in

Much colder jma this evening. There's a trend this evening, a cold one!!

It is indeed a very good Icon this evening!! Colder and with stronger heights. Of course one usually follows the other, get decent heights over Greenland and usually everything else falls into place. I really do rate the Icon and when you really analyse it, it's quite often more consistent than the big 3 I've a feeling tonight's gfs run will be a happy hour special!

So it looks like the 06z run this morning by gfs was not a bogey and had latched on to weaker heights up North. The gfs is going well lately after a dreadful 12 months. Its kind of turning into cold zonal as the block isn't holding out. In general a week of below average temps with lucky spots seeing some wintriness at times. No lying snow is evident right now

Sadly the news is not good at 120hrs. Uppers not cold enough, by quite a bit!!

Uppers look colder on the ECM @ 96hrs Good start sofar

Your quite right, but it is the model discussion thread and surely its productive to discuss what each run shows. The 12s in general are great, the 06z gfs is not. Would it be better if we just say the 06z is great and lie about it. The 06z is unlikely but like all other runs can neither be ruled in or out. I've been here a long time and I've seen many a trend picked up by the gfs and followed by the others a day later I personally think next week won't deliver but will help hugely in lowering ground/sea temps for the next event

The gfs control is not great either. In my opinion its all about heights to our North. If they are stronger they push the low to our South. All we can do is wait for the 12s

They are only the best charts if they actually happen. We've seen potential in lots of November's get watered down. What I find frustrating is why weather models haven't improved over the years. They can barely get 6 days right, and they were able to do that 40 years ago

I was going to say game over by Sunday, but in all honesty the game hadn't started. Likely bogey run but can't be discounted

No proper block, door wide open for the Atlantic even by Saturday. If this run was right there wouldn't be a day of cold