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January Snowstorm

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Everything posted by January Snowstorm

  1. January Snowstorm
    Agree the 144 was only going one direction! In general welcome upgrades in the short-term
  2. January Snowstorm
    Quite often over the years we regularly say the long term models look better after Christmas, February will be the month etc that everything swings in our favour! The reality that transpires is usually a bust. I guess the point I'm making is let's hope for a Scandi high now, a Greenland high now. In weather slow moving highs can repeat over a Winter cycle so what's being shown now for next week is not bad. In fact a Scandi high so early in season would be great news!
  3. January Snowstorm
    As others have said a very interesting ECM this evening!! How many lrf's or experienced pros picked up a blocked and cold end of the month? Indeed if anything the opposite was predicted with a wet stormy period of weather to start December...
  4. January Snowstorm
  5. January Snowstorm
    As you get older it's hard to enjoy the chases and the general roller coaster. However the output really is encouraging at the moment. The gfs is overdue a victory for that alone I'll be willing it on . Even if it fails always good to see Europe and Scandi get some proper cold!
  6. January Snowstorm
    Yes exactly my thoughts! Colder and some frosty nights. As you say nothing unusual for late November.
  7. January Snowstorm
    We've been here before on several occasions!! Of late, last 12months, the gfs has backtracked each and every time.
  8. January Snowstorm
    You would wonder really what if any use there is in analysing day 10 charts. The ECM proves this time and time again. For the more experienced on here, we know that a pattern change picked up around day 7 is the one to look out for!! They do happen and the counting down is a shorter timeframe. For me right now the outlook looks rather non descript. Nothing to be despondent about just typical Autumn fayre. The ground temps are still quite high so a few hard ground frosts would be welcome
  9. January Snowstorm
    ECM rolling now! I wonder will it produce the goods again at Day 10? It's a pity it doesn't make it to day 9 though lol. Jokes aside there is evidence of at least a high in situ or to our West. Where it goes afterwards is very much up for debate
  10. January Snowstorm
    Wow, that UKV looks nasty for central Ireland
  11. January Snowstorm
  12. January Snowstorm
    Met Eireann gone red just now for parts of Ireland!!
  13. January Snowstorm
    In the meantime we have our next Storm, Storm Debi named by Met Eireann for early tomorrow morning!
  14. January Snowstorm
    Is there a netweather winter forecast this year? Charts do look interesting in weeks time. GEM also on board!!
  15. January Snowstorm
    The charts don't look great to me at the moment. A strong high pressure over Spain is becoming a feature as we move to mid November. We've seen this many times over the years and how stubborn it can be... (Excluding gfs of course which is in a world of its own since last years upgrade)
  16. January Snowstorm
    The Icon follows ecm in nudging further South!! The gfs ppn charts are looking more out on their own now Edit, in fact it's a substantial nudge that means even South Coast of UK misses out
  17. January Snowstorm
    Icon nudges North, severe winds off South Coast UK
  18. January Snowstorm
    It seems the Met Office have now named it Storm Ciaran
  19. January Snowstorm
    The Icon is first out of the traps and it's really ramping next week's storm!! Hard to know who will get the worst wind speeds but a named storm looks very likely on this run. Further flooding for my area looks certain also. Edit: and a possible second named storm by next weekend! Let's see what gfs shows...
  20. January Snowstorm
    Major doubts over where the low develops though from Southwest Ireland to Northern England. Impossible to know who will get stormy weather. The only certainty is plenty rain
  21. January Snowstorm
    At least it means we get some weather!! We didn't have one named storm last year and for a weather fan that's quite boring
  22. January Snowstorm
    Extraordinary synoptics showing up for October. When last did we have a Scandi high at this time of year! Of course not cold enough for snow yet, but wow it will feel bitter compared to the last few weeks!
  23. January Snowstorm
    I think the older folk on here know which model holds clout over all the rest!! By a country mile you would want Glosea on board. Hence the hive of activity here this evening. Of course if it were right it would go against almost all predictions that this Winter would be back loaded. Either way seeing a cold pool building over Eastern Europe in mid October is very welcome!
  24. January Snowstorm
    Worth noting that the Met Office did pick up on the cold spell in 2009 several weeks beforehand. Considering the decade that went before it (largely snowless) it was a remarkable feat. Of equal note was the following Winter 2010 which wasn't forecast at all and was a surprise to many!! In my view extremes will continue and cold can be one of those options. But the trend is very much for late Winters so snow around Christmas time may well become extinct
  25. January Snowstorm
    You are incorrect. The UK Met Office named it.
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