January Snowstorm

Game on

We often talk about the big 3 on here but I wonder are they in reality: GFS - Quite often incorrect and slowest to cop on UKMO - Has the 168hr slide ever been correct ECM - Even in last cold spell was kicking and screaming to show cold. Whereas the other so called minnows have a decent record. The Icon, Jma, GEM have all vastly improved in my book. Indeed everyone was laughing at the Jma 24hours ago yet other models have largely followed. Quite often in the Met Office deep dives they mention all the models and like to review them all to get a balance. I've never heard them say big 3. Just a thought guys, I used to think big 3 myself but maybe they are all as relevant as each other. If this cold spell were to resolve have no doubts the JMA was most consistent....the so called minnow. I did say IF

The control is a stunner, quite similar to the JMA from earlier! Would bring whiteout conditions to most Christmas Eve

It does look good sofar

It looks primed after that though!! I predict a freezer for Christmas on tonight's ECM

Happy Christmas

Jma is awesome!! We now have 3 in favour of significant cold for Christmas!! We can build on that guys

Lol, it's game on again!! Deep cold Christmas Eve

BUST!!

All jokes aside the JMA is very cold and wintry!!

Folks Christmas is still beyond 240hrs. I know these patterns can lock in but not always! The deep cold is very close to our Northwest. Sometimes Northern heights can pop up out of the blue.

Not a bad place to be Christmas Eve. I think we'd all take a delay if Christmas was cold!

Not cold enough from the Icon up to 22nd. It does however show potential maybe after this. The deep cold really is building over Greenland

The ecm at 240 (Christmas Eve) Plenty fuel in the Atlantic to keep a very zonal, perhaps stormy Christmas period Any cold looks transient

The ukmo at 168!

The chart below is the coldest it gets on ecm! Even at that point not cold enough for snow....away from Scotland

Jma chart below. Synoptics are great but it's actually not cold enough by some margin. Still time for upgrades, which I personally think will happen

We've been in those setups plenty times in the past and the trend is usually to pull back on cold uppers! We need heights to our North

Not cold enough!!

No snow with those uppers other than the very highest ground. Gfs can be quite misleading in its ppn type charts

The seas were very warm out West and this is our first cold Northwesterly of the season. Imo no way will it end up cold enough, minus 4s ain't good enough apart from mountain snow. The gem like gfs has a problem sustaining the pattern to Christmas. The trough looks like filling over us and the cold getting mixed out

We need heights over Greenland!! This pattern won't sustain otherwise.. An alright chart, but not quite good enough

Thickness is very good! I think it would be snow for hills at least..

Not a bad Christmas eve chart is it?? Snow for many if this were to come off!!

I see nothing wrong with the ecm, in fact it's supporting the idea of cold zonal as we head for Christmas. At least we have a ticket for the raffle this year and the euro high is most definitely weakening!!